Can rookie starting pitchers help win a pennant?

rookiepitcher

If you are a baseball fan you know the importance of starting pitching, especially if a team is looking to go deep into the playoffs and potentially win a World Series. But what if I told you that what is also important about starting pitching is having a “veteran” starting staff… not having a dependence on rookie starting pitchers during a pennant drive.

Case in point: Look at the stats for starting pitchers this season (through games of August 26). Of the six teams leading their division (Baltimore, Kansas City, L.A. Angels, Washington, Milwaukee and L.A. Dodgers) these teams have had a combined total of only seven games started by rookie pitchers, an average of 1.2 per team. Of the other 24 teams, there have been 299 games started by rookie pitchers, an average of 12.5 per team.

Let’s look at it another way… Of the 15 teams that have records above .500, those teams have started rookie pitchers in 91 games, about 6.3 starts per team. Of the 15 teams that are at .500 or below, those teams had started 211 rookie hurlers, an average of 14.1 per team. Another way to state this stat is that of the 306 games started by rookie pitchers in 2014 (through August 26), 69% of them were started by teams at .500 or below; 31% were started by teams above .500.

Here’s a look at how many games have been started by rookie pitchers by each of the 30 MLB teams through games of August 26.

0: Baltimore, L.A. Angels, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh, San Francisco
1: Kansas City, L.A. Dodgers
2: Boston
3: Houston, St. Louis
5: Washington
9: Detroit, Miami
13: Cleveland
14: Philadelphia
15: Chicago White Sox, Toronto
16: Minnesota
18: Texas, Chicago Cubs
23: N.Y. Mets
24: San Diego
25: Seattle
27: Arizona, Colorado
38: N.Y. Yankees

If we look at the past 10 World Series champs, we see that only three (2006, St. Louis; 2007, Boston and 2010 San Francisco) had 10% or more of their regular season pitching starts during their title season started by rookie pitchers. Five of the 10 had fewer than five starts by rookie pitchers that championship season: 2004, Boston; 208 Philadelphia; 2009 N.Y. Yankees; 2011 St. Louis; and 2012 San Francisco).

Keep an eye on the pennant races during September. How many teams in the thick of the race will have to depend on a rookie pitcher to start a game… or more? And will that dependence hurt or help their pennant chase?

Follow Jerry on twitter @StatsonTapp

Boston Red Sox ’14 collapse not quite the worst ever

RedSox

Less than a year ago the Boston Red Sox were celebrating their third World Series title in the last 10 years. Now just 10 months removed from that celebration, the Red Sox are looking at one of the worst post-World Series title collapses in major league history. With a record of 57-74 (.435 winning percentage) this year, they will have to win 24 of their last 31 games to avoid a sub-.500 record thus becoming the 17th team in history to win a World Series one year and have a winning percentage under .500 the following year.

One thing is for sure: The Red Sox are glad that the 1998 Florida Marlins had their historic collapse after they won the World Series in 1997. The ’97 Marlins defeated the Cleveland Indians four games to three to win the title that year. The following season the Marlins won only 54 games (and lost 108) for a .333 winning percentage. That is the worst winning percentage of a World Series champion the year following their title.

Note: The Red Sox .435 winning percentage on the morning of August 27 would rank second worst of all-time for a defending World Series champ. The current second-worst winning percentage of a defending World Series champ is .457 by the 1991 Cincinnati Reds who were 74-88 that year. The 2014 Red Sox will need to go 18-13 in their last 31 games to avoid tying the Reds for second place on the list.

Following are the 16 World Series champs that finished below .500 the year after winning the championship.

Team, World Series title year, Winning pct. the following year

Florida Marlins 1997….. .333 in 1998
Cincinnati Reds 1990….. .457 in 1991
Chicago White Sox 1917….. .460 in 1918
St. Louis Cardinals 1931….. .468 in 1932
San Francisco Giants 2012….. .469 in 2013
Kansas City Royals 1985….. .469 in 1986
Baltimore Orioles 1966….. .472 in 1967
Anaheim Angels 2002….. .475 in 2003
Toronto Blue Jays 1993….. .478 in 1994
L.A. Dodgers 1988….. .481 in 1989
St. Louis Cardinals 2006….. .481 in 2007
Boston Red Sox 1918….. .482 in 1919
Pittsburgh Pirates 1960….. .487 in 1961
St. Louis Cardinals 1982….. . 488 in 1983
L.A. Dodgers 1963….. .494 in 1964
St. Louis Cardinals 1964….. .497 in 1965

Did you notice that the Giants in 2013 finished under .500 after their World Series title in 2012? If the Red Sox also finish under .500 this year it will mean the last two World Series champs finished their next seasons under .500. It has never happened three years in a row!

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

AFC West, NFC West teams have tough road with 2014 schedule

2014NFLschedule

The Denver Broncos last year were one of the NFL’s best teams with a 13-3 regular season record and a trip to the Super Bowl. The Oakland Raiders were one of the NFL’s worst teams last year with a 4-12 record. It’s interesting to note that this year these two teams have something in common… both will face nine teams that last year played in the NFL playoffs.

The Raiders have the task of facing their three division opponents that each made the playoffs last season (Denver, Kansas City and San Diego) twice this year and then facing NFC playoff teams Seattle and San Francisco. A game against the New England Patriots gives them their ninth game against 2013 playoff teams.

The Broncos get their nine games versus ’13 playoff teams by facing division foes/playoff teams Kansas City and San Diego twice, contests against the Seahawks and 49ers, and then games against fellow AFC division-winning teams New England, Indianapolis and Cincinnati.

Here’s a look at how many games each team will play this season against 2013 playoff teams.

9: Denver, Oakland

8: Arizona, Seattle, St. Louis

7: Kansas City, San Diego, San Francisco

6: Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, New England, N.Y. Jets, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay

5: Cincinnati, Cleveland, Detroit, Green Bay, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, Tennessee, Washington

4: Houston, Indianapolis

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K.C. Royals, Ned Yost hope MLB playoffs are in their immediate futures

NedYost

The Kansas City Royals have not seen it since 1985. It is not even on Royals’ skipper Ned Yost’s managerial resume. “It” is the baseball playoffs. You remember playoffs… that eight-letter word that former Indianapolis Colts head coach coach Jim Mora made famous.

The Royals in ’85 won the World Series. The franchise has not made it back to the post-season in almost three decades. Yost, who took over the Kansas City manager spot after 35 games in 2010, has never managed in the playoffs. He has, however, come close. In 2007 as skipper of the Milwaukee Brewers, Yost’s team had an 8 1/2-game lead in late June but could not hold on for a playoff spot. The next year Yost was fired by the Brewers with 12 games left in the season and the team fighting for a Wild Cord spot. The team went 7-5 under replacement skipper Dale Sveum and made the playoffs.

Yost is one of a handful of major league managers who has over 600 career wins as a manager but has never seen his team make the playoffs. Yost has 811 career managerial wins and his Royals this season are holding a slim 1 1/2-game lead in the American League Central. Could this be the year for Yost… and the Royals?

Here’s a look at the 10 major league managers who have the most career wins without managing in the playoffs (this list includes only managers who have managed since 1970).

Manager, Career Wins, Years as a manager

Frank Robinson, 1065 (1975-2006)
Paul Richards, 923 (1951-75)
Ned Yost, 811 (2003-active)
Terry Collins, 729 (1994-active)
Dave Bristol, 657 (1966-80)
Jeff Torborg, 634 (1977-2003)
Harry Walker, 630 (1955-72)
Herman Franks, 605 (1965-79)
Bud Black, 599 (2007-active)
Pat Corrales, 572 (1978-87)

Note: Prior to the 1969 MLB season, it was much more difficult for teams to make the playoffs. Only two teams made the playoffs from the start of baseball’s birth until 1968: the American League and National League champs. Because of that, there are many managers who accumulated a boat-load of regular season wins in their careers yet never managed in the post-season. Here’s a look at managers prior to 1970 who had the most regular season wins without ever having their team make the playoffs.

Manager, Career Wins, Years as a manager

Clark Griffith, 1491 (1901-20)
Jimmy Dykes, 1406 (1934-61)
Ned Hanlon, 1313 (1889-1907)
Cap Anson, 1295 (1875-98)
Frank Selee, 1284 (1890-1905)
Harry Wright, 1225 (1871-93)
Charlie Comiskey, 840 (1883-94)
Birdie Tebbetts, 748 (1954-66)
Jimmy McAleer, 735 (1901-11)
Patsy Tebeau, 726 (1890-1900)

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TRIPLE PLAY: Cleveland Browns quarterbacks

Hoyer-Manziel

(One subject… three questions… Can you answer these three questions correctly and complete the TRIPLE PLAY?)

One of the biggest stories in this year’s NFL pre-season was the battle between Brian Hoyer and Johnny Manziel for the starting QB spot with the Cleveland Browns. It was just announced today that Hoyer will be the starter when the regular season begins in three weeks. Since 2000, there have been 19 different players who have started a game at QB for the Browns. How well do you know your Cleveland Browns QBs?

1. Which QB has started the most games for the Browns since 2000? Your choices… Brandon Weeden, Tim Couch, Colt McCoy, Derek Anderson.

2. Johnny Manziel was the third quarterback this century that the Browns selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Can you name the other two?

3. The last time the Cleveland Browns played in a playoff game was in 2002. Kelly Holcomb was the starting QB in that game. The last time the Browns won a playoff game was in 1994 when they defeated the New England Patriots 20-13. Who was the Browns’ starting QB in that ’94 playoff win? Hint: He played 21 years in the NFL, three with Cleveland.

ANSWERS

1. Tim Couch has the most starts at QB for the Browns since 2000 with 45. Derek Anderson is second with 34; Colt McCoy had 21, and Brandon Weeden had 20.

2. The Browns selected Brandon Weeden in the first round of the 2012 draft and Brady Quinn in the first round of the 2007 draft.

3. Vinny Testaverde was the starting QB for the Browns when they last won a playoff game in 1994.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

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