10 stat factors that could influence the Packers-Giants playoff game

English: Ryan Grant takes a handoff from Aaron...

Could Ryan Grant be a key to a Packers win on Sunday? Image via Wikipedia

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Sunday with a bonus “SIX STATS…” posting every Friday.

Here’s a look at some stats that may (or may not) have an affect on Sunday’s Packers-Giants playoff game. Of the four playoff games this weekend, it appears that the Packers-Giants game is the one that most pundits feel could go either way. Which of the following stats may contribute to a Green Bay win… or a New York win? We’ll know Sunday night! (These are listed in no particular order.)

Ryan Grant. In his career, the Packers running back has 12 100-yard games. The Packers are 10-2 in those games. In games where his per-carry average was 5.0 or more, the Packers are 15-4 in his career. In three of his last four games, Grant averaged 5.5 yards per carry or more in the game. Grant has played in three playoff games, gaining 294 yards on 51 carries, a 5.8 average.

The Giants running game in 2011. The Giants averaged 99.7 yards per game in their nine wins; only 75.7 yards per game in their seven losses. They gained 100 or more yards in seven of their nine wins; in only one loss did they gain 100 or more yards on the ground. They gained 172 yards in their playoff win against the Falcons last weekend.

The kickers this season. New York’s Lawrence Tynes was successful on 19 of 24 field goal attempts in the regular season; Green Bay’s Mason Crosby made 24 of 28 field goals. On kicks of 30 yards or more, Tynes was seven of 12, Crosby was 19 of 22.

The kick returners this season. The Giants averaged 6.1 yards per punt return and 23.3 yards per kickoff return. Green Bay averaged 10.9 yards per punt return and 24.5 yards per kickoff return. Green Bay’s Randall Cobb averaged 11.3 yards per punt return and 27.7 yards per kickoff return. Cobb returned both a punt and kickoff for a TD this season; the Giants did not return a kick for a TD.

Turnovers in 2011. In their nine wins, the Giants only turned the ball over seven times; in their seven losses, they turned the ball over 17 times. The Giants “D” forced 20 turnovers in their nine wins, only 11 turnovers in their seven losses. The only game in which the Packers defense did not force a turnover was their only loss of the season to Kansas City. The Packers “D” forced more turnovers at home, 20, than on the road, 18.

Turnovers in the series. The Packers turned the ball over 43 times in their 22 games against the Giants since 1967. In their 14 wins against New York, the Packers turned the ball over 16 times (an average of 1.1 turnovers per game); in their eight losses, the Packers turned the ball over 27 times (an average of 3.4 turnovers per game). In 12 of the 14 wins, the Packers had fewer turnovers than the Giants. The Giants have 56 turnovers in their 22 games vs. the Pack. In their eight wins, the Giants had only 13 turnovers (and average of 1.6 per game). In their 14 losses, they had 45 turnovers (an average of 3.2 turnovers per game).

Sunday games. The Packers have won 13 of the 18 games against the Giants played on Sundays. The Giants are 3-1 in games played against the Packers on non-Sundays.

The last eight match-ups between the two teams. The Packers have won six of the last eight games between the two teams. New York’s wins were the playoff game on January 20, 2008 and an October, 2004 contest.

Close games in 2011. The Giants had five wins by four points or less in 2011. The Packers had six wins of nine points or less this season.

Rodgers vs. Manning. Will the quarterback that has the better game lead his team to victory? Here’s a handful of stats on these two QBs that may determine the outcome on Sunday.

* Manning had 11 TDs and 12 interceptions in the Giants seven losses; he had 18 TDs and only four “picks” in their nine wins. Rodgers had 24 touchdown passes and only four interceptions in eight games at Lambeau Field.

* Rodgers is 4-1 in playoff starts and a 112.6 passer rating in those games. Manning is 5-3 in playoff starts with an 84.9 passer rating in those games. In his five playoff wins, Manning’s passer rating was 117.1, 132.4, 72.0, 87.3 and 129.3 In his three playoff losses, 35.0, 85.6 and 40.7

* Rodgers and Manning have faced each other two times, the Packers winning both games. Manning had five TDs and five interceptions in those two games; Rodgers had eight touchdowns and one interception.

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One response

  1. It is interesting to look at this post again after the game was played and see how the two teams played this time compared to past games statistics. Might be a good comparison follow up article. As usual, it is nice to be able to scan thru and make one feel more or less confident in the potential outcome of the game :)

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