Two stats to keep an eye on in this year’s World Series
The 2019 World Series begins tonight as the Houston Astros host the Washington Nationals, who are making the first World Series appearance in franchise history.
Here are a couple of stats to pay attention to as this series plays out.
Home Runs. This year Major League teams hit more home runs than in any other season in baseball history. There’s little doubt that the long-ball plays an important part of today’s game. Washington had 231 home runs in 2019, sixth most in the National League and 13th most in all of baseball; the Astros, on the other hand, had 288 long balls, good enough for third most in the American League and third most in the majors.
Does the number of HRs a team hits in a game make a difference in whether a team wins or loses? In 2019, teams that hit three or more home runs in a game were 635-186, a .773 winning percentage.
Here’s a breakdown of how well MLB teams did when they hit zero, one, two, three, four, and five or more HRs in a game in 2019.
Zero HRs in a game: 360-960 .273
One HR in a game: 746-855 .466
Two HRs in a game: 688-428 .616
Three HRs in a game: 370-135 .733
Four HRs in a game: 164-38 .812
Five or more HRs in a game: 101-13 .886
Looking at World Series games since 2000, these numbers are not that different. Following are the same stats for home runs hit in a game in the World Series since 2000.
Zero HRs in a game: 36-49 .424
One HR in a game: 30-38 .441
Two HRs in a game: 25-15 .625
Three HRs in a game: 10-2 .833
Four HRs in a game: 4-2 .667
Five or more HRs in a game: 1-0 1.000
Starting Pitchers going six or more innings. We have seen a shift in baseball over the past several years where teams seem to focus on making sure their starter gets five innings and then it’s time for the bullpen to take over.
In the World Series since 2000, a starting pitcher has lasted six or more innings 110 times. His team has won 68 of those games and lost 42, a .618 winning percentage.
The trend, however, seems to show less dependence on the starter getting six innings or more. From 2000-2009, starters lasting six or more innings in the World Series happened 66 times with that starter’s team going 39-25 (.609) in those games. From 2010-18, starters lasting six innings or more in the World Series happened 46 times. Those teams did, however, won at a better clip, going 29-17 (.630).
BONUS STAT. This World Series is a matchup between the 107-win Houston Astros and the 93-win Washington Nationals. That’s a 14-win difference in the two teams. This is only the 10th time in World Series history that one team in the World Series had 14 or more regular season wins more than their World Series opponent. In fact, this is the second consecutive year this has happened; last year the 108-win Boston Red Sox defeated the 92-win L.A. Dodgers in the World Series. That 16-win difference was tied for the third-most in World Series history.
The biggest win difference in World Series history? In 1906, the 116-win Chicago Cubs faced off against cross-town rivals the Chicago White Sox, who had won 93 games, a 23-win differential. It’s important to note that the 93-win White Sox won that series. Of the nine previous times where a World Series matchup featured two teams that had a 14-win regular season differential, the team with fewer wins won three times. Most recent was in 2006 when the 83-win St. Louis Cardinals beat the 97-win Detroit Tigers to win the ’06 Fall Classic.
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PACKERSTATS-Game #7-2019 season
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 42-24 win over the Oakland Raiders on Sunday, October 21 at Lambeau Field.
- Aaron Rodgers was the star of the game completing 25 of 31 passes (80.6%) for 429 yards and five TD passes. He became the fourth QB in NFL history to have five TD passes, over 400 yards passing and complete 80% of his passes in a game. The last player to reach these numbers was Deshaun Watson for Houston two weeks ago. Prior to that, Ben Roethlisberger did it on October 26, 2014 with the Steelers, and Drew Brees was the first QB to reach these numbers in a game on December 18, 2011 for the Saints.
- Rodgers is now one of five QBs to have five or more games with five or more TDs with no interceptions. Brees tops this list with seven such games followed by Tom Brady with six games. Rodgers is tied with Peyton Manning and Roethlisberger with five games with five or more TDs and no interceptions.
- Rodgers became the first GB quarterback to have a perfect 158.3 Passer Rating in a game. Rodgers has had a Passer Rating of 132 or above in 24 regular season games. The Packers are 24-0 in those games.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling had two receptions for 133 yards. He became the 14th player in NFL history to have 130 or more receiving yards in a game with only two catches. The others on this list: Tavon Austin (the last to accomplish this feat back in 2013), Pierre Garcon, Calvin Johnson, Johnnie Morton, Willie Gault, James Scott, Roger Carr, Isaac Bruce, Lance Rentzel, Homer Jones, Dick Dorsey, Del Shofner and Ollie Matson.
- Green Bay is now 88-93-3 (.486) in regular season games versus AFC teams since 1970 (the AFC-NFC merger). They are 52-39-2 (.570) since 1970 in home games versus AFC teams.
- The Packers have now won nine straight home games against AFC West teams.
- Rodgers is now 8-2 (.800) with a Passer Rating of 114.1 against the AFC West in his career. It is the highest winning percentage and Passer Rating against any of the eight divisions.
- Green Bay had a 21-10 lead at halftime. Green Bay is 42-3 (.933) since 2000 in home games when they tally 20 or more points in the first half.
- Rodgers had a rushing TD in the game. It was the 26th regular season game where he had at least one rushing TD. The Pack is 15-11 in those games. This was the second game of his career where he accounted for six TDs (five TD passes/one TD run). On October 2, 2011 in a game versus the Denver Broncos, he had four TD passes and two TD runs.
- The Packers did not have a turnover in the game and is now 23-3-2 (.857) in home games since 2010 when they did not commit a turnover in a game.
- Green Bay is now 6-1 on the 2019 season. It is their first time at 6-1 since 2015. Prior to this season, the Packers started 6-1 in 14 seasons in their history. In two of those seasons they won the Super Bowl, and in four of those seasons they won an NFL title (pre-Super Bowl).
- The Pack has now won 31 straight games at Lambeau Field when they score 40 or more points.
- Green Bay had 421 yards passing and only 60 yards rushing. It was only the second time since 1970 that they had 400 or more yards passing in a game and 60 or fewer yards rushing. The other game was on October 11, 2004, a 48-27 loss to Tennessee. NFL teams are a combined 26-55 (.321) in games where they pass for over 400 yards and have 60 or fewer rushing yards in the same game.
- Blake Martinez had a combined 16 tackles in the game (8 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles). It was the fourth game in his career where he had a combined 16 tackles in a game, the most for the Packers since 1970. The other players who have had 16 combined tackles in a game for the Packers since 1970: A.J. Hawk (one game), Nick Barnett (one game), Na’il Diggs (one game), Nate Wayne (two games) and Brian Williams (one game).
- The Green Bay defense did not have a sack in the game. The team is now 3-8 since 2010 in games where the defense does not have a sack.
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 23-22 win over the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football, October 14 at Lambeau Field.
- The Packers had three turnovers in the game while the Lions had no turnovers. How improbable was the Packers win based on their three turnovers and the Lions not having a turnover? In regular season games from 2000-2019, teams that have three turnovers and their opponents did not have a turnover have won only 36 games and have lost 597; that is a winning percentage of .057, meaning that based on these stats dating back to 2000, the Packers had about a 6% chance of winning that game on Monday because of their three turnovers and Detroit’s zero turnovers. The Packers have now won three games since 2000 when they had three turnovers and no takeaways in a contest, that is tied for the second-most in the league (the Rams have won four such games since 2000). It was Green Bay’s first win in a game where they had three turnovers and no takeaways since November 4, 2001 in a win 17-14 win over Tampa Bay.
- Green Bay is now 25-10 (.714) in home games in October since 2000. They have won 17 of their last 20 home games in October.
- Green Bay is now 11-8 versus the Lions since 2010, including a 7-3 record versus the Lions at home since 2010.
- The Pack is now 33-32-1 in Monday night games since 1970. They have won five of their last six Monday night games. The 33 Monday night wins ranks seventh in the NFL; the San Francisco 49ers have the most Monday night wins with 49.
- Green Bay won the coin toss and is now 32-8-1 since 2010 at Lambeau Field when they win the coin toss.
- Detroit scored first in the game. The Packers are now 30-26 (.536) since 2000 in games at Lambeau Field where the opposition scores first in the contest.
- As stated above, the Pack had three turnovers in the game. They are now 3-14 since 2010 in games where they have three or more turnovers. The Lions had zero turnovers; the Packers are now 6-24 (.200) since 2010 in games when they have no takeaways in a game.
- Detroit put 10 points on the scoreboard in the first quarter. Green Bay is now 11-26 (.297) since 2000 when they give up 10 or more points in the first quarter of a regular season game.
- The Packers did not score in the first quarter and are now 23-19 since 2000 in games at Lambeau when they do not score in the first quarter.
- Detroit’s Matt Prater made five field goals in the game becoming the ninth opponent kicker to have five or more made field goals in a regular season game against the Pack.
- The Lions had a 19-13 lead going into the fourth quarter. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, the Packers are 11-80-1 (.125) in games at Lambeau Field when they are behind by six or more points entering the fourth quarter.
- Green Bay placekicker Mason Crosby connected on three field goals and two extra points for 11 points. It was the 56th regular season game in his career where he had 10 or more points in a game. The Packers are 47-8-1 (.848) in those games when Crosby scores 10 or more points.
- The Packers sit atop the NFC North with a 5-1 record. Since 1966, Green Bay has now been 5-1 six times after six games played. In two of those years, they won the Super Bowl (1966 and 1996). The last time the Packers were 5-1 after six games was in 2007.
- Green Bay has now won six one-point regular season games since 2000; the Dallas Cowboys top this list with 11 one-point wins since 2000.
- Aaron Rodgers is now 31-12 in October games in his career, the most wins of any month in his career.
- Jamaal Williams had 104 yards rushing in the game on 14 carries. It was the second-most rushing yards in a game in his career. The 7.43 yards per carry in this game was the highest of his career.
- The Packers had 170 yards rushing in the game and is now 31-7-1 (.808) since 2000 in games where they have 170 or more yards rushing in a contest.
- Allen Lazard led the Packers with 65 yards receiving in the game. Prior to that game, Lazard had one career catch for seven yards in a game versus the Lions last year. Lazard became the 37th different receiver who has caught a TD pass from Aaron Rodgers.
- This was the first game with a score of 23-22 that the Packers have ever played in. There have been 13 NFL games that ended 23-22 since 1979.
- Green Bay had 447 total yards in the game. Since 2010, they are 35-10-1 (.772) in games where they have 400 or more total yards in a game.
9 stats you may not know about NFL teams that start the season 5-0
There are two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL: The 6-0 New England Patriots who started the 2019 season with their sixth straight win this season over the New York Giants last Thursday; and the surprising San Francisco 49ers who upped their record to 5-0 with a big divisional win over one of last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Los Angeles Rams, on Sunday.
Not counting this year’s Patriots and 49ers, there have been 53 teams that have started an NFL season 5-0 since 1990. Here are nine stats you may not know about the 53 teams that started the season 5-0 since 1990.
- There were two teams that started 5-0 in 2018 (the Los Angeles Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs). Since 1990, the most teams that started a season 5-0 were six in 2015. No teams started the year 5-0 in 2014, 2010, 2002, 1996 and 1995.
- Nine teams that started the season 5-0 went on to win the Super Bowl: New York Giants(1990), Washington (1991), Denver (1997), Denver (1998), St. Louis Rams (1999), New England (2004), Indianapolis (2006), New Orleans (2009), Denver (2015). Eleven teams that started 5-0 since 1990 went on to lose in the Super Bowl that year. That means that of the 53 teams that started the season 5-0 since 1990, 20 (37.7%) went on to play in the Super Bowl that season.
- There have been five Super Bowls since 1990 that featured two teams that started the season 5-0: 1991 (Buffalo and Washington), 2004 (New England and Philadelphia), 2006 (Chicago and Indianapolis), 2009 (Indianapolis and New Orleans) and 2015 (Carolina and Denver). Could this year’s Super Bowl feature two teams that started the year, New England and San Francisco?
- Forty-seven of the 53 (88.7%) teams that started the season 5-0 since 1990 eventually made the playoffs that season.
- Forty-seven of the 53 (88.7%) teams that started the season 5-0 since 1990 won 10 or more games that season. One team finished 9-7, five teams finished the year 8-8.
- Twenty-one of the 53 teams (39.6%) that started the season 5-0 since 1990 won at least one playoff game that year.
- Twenty-four of the 53 teams (45.3%) that started the season 5-0 since 1990 won 13 or more games that season.
- Three teams (Denver, Indianapolis and Minnesota) started a season 5-0 five times since 1990, tied for most in the league. Three teams (Kansas City, New England and New Orleans) each started four seasons 5-0 since 1990.
- Two franchises (Indianapolis and the St. Louis Rams) each had three consecutive seasons where they started 5-0 since1990. The Colts did it in 2005, 2006 and 2007, while the Rams did in 1999, 2000 and 2001.
Bonus: In case you were wondering, here is the breakdown of how many teams made the playoffs from 1990-2018 after starting the season 0-5, 1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1 and 5-0.
Started season 0-5… Teams-58, Made playoffs-0 (0%)
Started season 1-4… Teams-142, Made playoffs-10 (7%)
Started season 2-3… Teams-242, Made playoffs-53 (21.9%)
Started season 3-2… Teams-247, Made playoffs-123 (49.8%)
Started season 4-1… Teams-150, Made playoffs-114 (76%)
Started season 5-0… Teams 53, Made playoffs-47 (88.7%)
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Washington Nationals make history
It was an itch that certainly needed to be scratched… especially for their long-suffering fans.
With their win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Divisional Series, the Washington Nationals are going to the National League Championship Series (NLCS) for the first time in the history of the franchise in Washington.
As a point of historical perspective, the Nationals have been in existence since 2005. Prior to that, the franchise called Montreal home where the Expos played from 1969 to 2004. They then left Montreal for D.C. and a new start as the Nationals in ’05.
The Expos made the post-season only once in their history, losing in the NLCS three games to two in 1981. It was the first and only time the franchise had made it to the NLCS until this year, the longest drought of all franchises. In fact, of the current 30 franchises, 26 have played in either an ALCS or NLCS this century. The four teams that had not played in the ALCS or NLCS this century prior to this year were Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, San Diego and Washington.
Here’s a look at the last time each MLB team has played in the ALCS or NLCS with a chance to reach the World Series.
Chicago White Sox-2005
*At the time of this post, the ALDS series between Tampa Bay and Houston had not been decided, therefore their years may not be current
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