Daily Archives: April 25th, 2012

Andrew Luck: Will he become Peyton Manning or JaMarcus Russell?

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck at the footba...

Andrew Luck (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published multiple times weekly focusing on stats that go beyond the numbers.

Stanford’s Andrew Luck on Thursday will become the 18th quarterback taken with the first overall pick since 1970 in the NFL draft. The Indianapolis Colts obviously hope that Luck can deliver wins and playoff victories in the same manner as the man he replaces, Peyton Manning, who was also the first overall pick in 1998.

Based on the rookie year performance of the previous QBs who were the first overall pick in the draft, what can we expect from Luck’s first season as the Colts leader? First, based on the win-loss records of the other 17 QBs in games they started their first season, there may not be many wins to celebrate in 2012. The other 17 No. 1 picks won 55 and lost 132 for a .294 winning percentage in games they started their first season. In addition, those QBs passed for an average of 11.9 touchdowns their rookie season.

Following are the career win-loss records of the 17 quarterbacks who were the No. 1 overall pick in an NFL draft.

Year Drafted, quarterback, Career W-L Pct. (rookie year W-L)

1998 Peyton Manning… 141-67 .678 (3-13)

1970 Terry Bradshaw… 107-51 .677 (3-5)

1983 John Elway 148-82 .617 (4-6)

2001 Michael Vick… 53-37-1 .588 (1-1)

2004 Eli Manning… 69-50 .580 (1-6)

1989 Troy Aikman… 94-71 .570 (0-11)

1993 Drew Bledsoe… 98-95 .508 (5-7)

1971 Jim Plunkett… 72-72 .500 (6-8)

2005 Alex Smith… 32-34 .485 (2-5)

2004 Carson Palmer… 50-56 .472 (0-0)

1975 Steve Bartkowski… 59-68 .465 (4-7)

2009 Matthew Stafford… 13-16 .448 (2-8)

1987 Vinny Testaverde… 90-123-1 .423 (0-4)

2011 Cam Newton… 6-10.375 (6-10)

1999 Tim Couch… 22-37 .373 (2-12)

1990 Jeff George… 46-78 .371 (5-7)

2010 Sam Bradford… 8-18 .308 (7-9)

2003 David Carr… 23-56 .291 (4-12)

2008 JaMarcus Russell… 7-18 .280 (0-1)

Here’s a look at which of the 17 QBs had the most TD passes that first season.

Most TDs passes in rookie year by overall No. 1 QB

26: Peyton Manning

21: Cam Newton

19: Jim Plunkett

18: Sam Bradford

16: Jeff George

Did you know? Of the 17 QBs who were the No. 1 overall pick since 1970, Sam Bradford won the most games in his rookie season with seven. Peyton Manning lost the most games his rookie year with 13. Michael Vick was the only QB to have a winning percentage at .500 or above in his rookie year starts; he was 1-1. The other 16 signal-callers were all under .500 in their rookie year starts.

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