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Just like the Oklahoma City Thunder who did it the night before, the Boston Celtics last night became the first road team to win in their series against the Miami Heat, defeating the Heat 94-90 in Miami. The home teams are now 8-2 in Conference Finals games this postseason.
But what about Game 6? Can the home teams (in this case OKC and the Celtics) both win Game 6 and win their respective series? Or will the Heat and Spurs steal a game on the road as their opponents did the last two nights?
In the past five playoff seasons (2008-2012) Game 6 has not been a sure thing for home teams. There have been 39 Game Sixes in the playoffs since 2008, with the home team winning 23 and losing 16, a .590 winning percentage. This would indicate that there’s a good chance that one of the road teams will force a Game 7 in their series. Will it be the Heat or the Spurs?
Home teams have won a little over two-thirds of playoff games this postseason. Here’s a snapshot of how well the home team has done in each round of the playoffs this year.
2012 NBA Playoffs
Conference Finals: 8-2 .800
Conference Semifinals: 14-8 .636
Conference First Round: 29-15 .659
2012 Playoffs: 51-25 .671
For comparison, here’s a look at the home record in the last four playoff seasons.
2011: 53-28 .654
2010: 55-27 .670
2009: 57-28 .671
2008: 64-22 .744
Over the past five years (2008-2012), there have been 74 playoffs series and 410 games. The home teams has won 280 of those games, a .683 winning percentage. Here’s a look at how the home-court advantage played out in each stage of the playoffs (conference first round, conference semifinals, conference finals and NBA finals) over those 410 games.
Playoff Round, Home Team win-loss record & percentage
Western Conference First Round, 76-34 .691
Eastern Conference First Round, 78-33 .703
Conference First Round total, 154-67 .697
Western Conference Semifinals, 37-16 .698
Eastern Conference Semifinals, 37-20 .649
Conference Semifinals total 74-36 .673
Western Conference Finals, 18-9 .667
Eastern Conference Finals, 18-9, 667
Conference Finals totals, 36-19 .655
NBA Finals, 16-8 .667
Note: If you’re looking ahead to a potential Game 7 in either series, the home team has won 10 and lost three (.769 winning percentage) in Game Sevens the past five years.
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