Monthly Archives: December, 2012

NFL Week 16 POP Score rankings: Nine straight weeks at number 1 for Patriots

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

Sammy Morris (#34) scores the third Patriots t...

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

It looks like the New England Patriots will end the 2012 NFL regular season with the most efficient offense in the league based on this year’s POP Score rankings. The Pats have a comfortable lead over the second place Atlanta Falcons in these weekly rankings.

Take a look at the rankings below and you will notice that of the 10 teams which have already gained playoff berths, eight of them are listed in the top 12 spots in the rankings. Washington (ranked tied for fourth) and the Cowboys (ranked 10th) will face off this Sunday night for the NFC East title and a playoff spot, meaning that nine of the top 12 in the POP Score rankings will be playoff teams.

(POP Score is based on the simple premise that it is the offensive team’s objective to score a touchdown (or at the least, kick a field goal) in each possession. POP Score stands for Points per Offensive Possession. Here’s how it works: The Falcons in Week One had nine possessions in their game. On four of the possessions, they scored a touchdown. On four of their possessions they kicked a field goal. They punted once. They scored 24 points on their four TDs (extra points are not included in Pop Score); 12 points on their four field goals. The Atlanta offense scored 36 points on nine possessions. By dividing the 36 points by the nine possessions, you get a POP Score of 4.0. Maximum POP Score is 6.0, which would indicate that a team scored a touchdown every time they had an offensive possession.)

Here’s a look at the POP Score rankings through Week 16.

Team, POP Score, (Season Offensive Scores/Possessions)

1. New England 2.53 (85 scores in 167 possessions)
2. Atlanta 2.23 (74 scores in 156 possessions)
3. New York Giants 2.1 (71 scores in 156 possessions)
4tie. Seattle 2.09 (63 scores in 148 possessions)
4tie. Washington 2.09 (67 scores in 158 possessions)
6tie. Denver 2.07 (69 scores in 164 possessions)
6tie. New Orleans 2.07 (66 scores in 167 possessions)
8. Green Bay 2.01 (64 scores in 163 possessions)
9. San Francisco 1.97 (63 scores in 157 possessions)
10. Dallas 1.88 (63 scores in 156 possessions)

11. Baltimore 1.87 (66 scores in 165 possessions)
12. Cincinnati 1.83 (65 scores in 169 possessions
13. Tampa Bay 1.8 (63 scores in 168 possessions)
14. Houston 1.79 (68 scores in 181 possessions)
15tie. Detroit 1.73 (66 scores in 175 possessions)
15tie. Minnesota 1.73 (62 scores in 161 possessions)
17. Carolina 1.69 (49 scores in 151 possessions)
18. Indianapolis 1.65 (57 scores in 160 possessions)
19. Pittsburgh 1.62 (58 scores in 167 possessions)
20. Buffalo 1.57 (54 scores in 166 possessions)

21. Chicago 1.53 (53 scores in 162 possessions)
22. San Diego 1.5 (52 scores in 160 possessions)
23. Miami 1.49 (51 scores in 159 possessions)
24tie. Oakland 1.46 (56 scores in 167 possessions)
24tie Philadelphia 1.46 (54 scores in 167 possessions)
26. Cleveland 1.43 (55 scores in 172 possessions)
27. Tennessee 1.34 (50 scores in 170 possessions)
28. St. Louis 1.32 (46 scores in 161 possessions)
29. New York Jets 1.24 (44 scores in 170 possessions)
30. Jacksonville 1.17 (48 scores in 174 possessions)
31. Kansas City 1.09 (44 scores in 168 possessions)
32. Arizona 0.99 (43 scores in 190 possessions)

Biggest gainer this week: Green Bay (up four spots from last week); Baltimore (up three spots from last week); Dallas (up three spots from last week); Seattle (up three spots from last week).

Biggest loser this week: Houston (down four spots from last week); Cincinnati (down three spots from last week); Pittsburgh (down three spots from last week); San Francisco (down three spots from last week); Tampa Bay (down three spots from last week).

NFL POP Score league average through Week 16: 1.69

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

Perfect at home… Falcons and Seahawks go for 8-0 at home on Sunday

Atlanta Falcons logo

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

A pair of NFL teams – the Atlanta Falcons and Seattle Seahawks – need a win at home this Sunday to finish with a perfect 8-0 record in games played on their home field.

The Falcons will face the Tampa Bay Bucs while the Seahawks will tangle with the St. Louis Rams. This would be the first perfect season at home for the Falcons since 1998; the Seahawks last finished 8-0 at home in the 2005 season.

Since 2000, there have been 19 teams that have finished 8-0 at home in a season. Three teams did it in 2011: Green Bay, New Orleans and Baltimore. Five teams that went 8-0 in a season since 2000 played in the Super Bowl that year. Those teams:

2003: New England
2004: New England
2005: Seattle
2006: Indianapolis
2007: New England

Could the Seahawks make a return trip to the Super Bowl with an 8-0 record at home in 2012, just like they did in 2005?

Here’s a few more stats from teams that went 8-0 at home since 2000:

* As mentioned above, five teams made the Super Bowl that year. Of those five, three won the Super Bowl (New England 2003, New England 2004 and Indianapolis 2007).

* Four teams lost in the Conference Championship Game that year.

* Seven teams lost in a Conference Divisional Game that year.

* Three teams lost in a Wild Card Game that year.

* Of the 19 teams with a perfect 8-0 record at home since 2000, all of them made the playoffs that year. Nine of the 19, however, were defeated in their first playoff game that year.

* Of the 14 teams that did not make the Super Bowl after their 8-0 record at home, 10 lost their playoff game at home.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

Houston Texans’ double-digit points streak ends at 61 games

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

Houston Texans

(Photo credit: The Brit_2)

Among the surprises from yesterday’s NFL games was the Minnesota Vikings win over the Houston Texans in Houston. But an even bigger surprise from that contest was that the Texans could muster only a pair of field goals in the 23-6 loss.

This was the first game since September 13, 2009 that the Texans scored less than 10 points in an NFL regular-season game, a streak of 61 games.  This was the second longest current streak in the NFL prior to yesterday’s games. The New Orleans Saints hold the active streak with 72 games straight where they have scored 10 or more points in a game.

Following are the teams that have the longest active streak of games where they have scored 10 or more points in a game.

Active streak of scoring 10-plus points in a game, Team

72 games: New Orleans Saints
61 games: New England Patriots
46 games: Atlanta Falcons
34 games: Green Bay Packers
22 games: Minnesota Vikings; Washington Redskins
19 games: Cincinnati Bengals
17 games: Pittsburgh Steelers
15 games: Denver Broncos

There have been 43 times this season where a team scored less than 10 points. The Kansas City Chiefs top that list with five games. Here are the number of times this season each team has scored less than 10 points in a game:

5: Kansas City
4: Arizona, New York Jets
3: Jacksonville, San Diego
2: Buffalo, Chicago, Oakland, Philadelphia, St. Louis, Tennessee
1: Baltimore, Carolina, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis, Miami, New York Giants, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa Bay
0: Atlanta, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Washington

Notice the nine teams above which have not been held to less than 10 points this season? Of those nine, five have already qualified for the playoffs, two may still make it in the playoffs, and two teams will not make the 2-12 playoffs.

Here’s a few more interesting notes:

* The last time a playoff team scored less that 10 points in a playoff game was last season when the New York Giants defeated the Atlanta Falcons 24-2 in an NFC first-round game last year.

* The last time a Super Bowl team scored less than 10 points in the big game was Super Bowl XXXV when the Baltimore Ravens beat the Giants, 34-7 on January 28, 2001.

* Should the Redskins score 10 or more points next week in their finale versus the Dallas Cowboys, it would be the first season since 1999 that the Redskins have gone the whole season without scoring under 10 points in a game.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

Will Rajon Rondo run away with the NBA assist title this year?

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

Rajon Rondo, the 21st pick of the Phoenix Suns

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Through games of December 21, Boston’s Rajon Rondo has averaged 12.2 assists per game over 23 games. His closest competitor for the assist lead is the Clippers’ Chris Paul who is averaging 9.4 assists. If the 2012-13 NBA season ended today, the 2.8 assist margin between these two players would be the eighth biggest for the assist title in NBA history.

The last player to win an NBA assist title by more than 2.0 assists per game was Steve Nash in 2006-07. Nash had 11.6 assists per game to win the title that season, outdistancing runner-up Deron Williams, who had 9.3 assists per games, a margin of 2.3 assists.

The largest margin was in 1964-65 when Oscar Robertson won the assist crown by averaging 11.5 assists per game. Second that year was Guy Rodgers, who averaged 7.2 assists per game, a margin of 4.3 assists per contest.

Here’s a look at the players who won the league assist title by a margin of 2.5 assists or more.

NBA season, NBA assist leader (assists per game)/Assist runner-up (assist per game), margin

1964-65: Oscar Robertson (11.5)/Guy Rodgers (7.2)… 4.3 margin
1978-79: Kevin Porter (13.4)/John Lucas (9.3)… 4.1 margin
1963-64: Oscar Robertson (11.0)/Guy Rodgers (7.0)… 4.0 margin
1961-62: Oscar Robertson (11.4)/Guy Rodgers (8.0)… 3.4 margin
1989-90: John Stockton (14.5)/Magic Johnson (11.5)… 3.0 margin
1991-92: John Stockton (13.7)/Kevin Johnson (10.7)… 3.0 margin
1994-95: John Stockton (12.3)/Kenny Anderson (9.4)… 2.9 margin
1955-56: Bob Cousy (8.9)/Jack George (6.3)… 2.6 margin
1972-73: Tiny Archibald (11.4)/Jerry West (8.8)… 2.6 margin
2004-05: Steve Nash (11.5)/Brevin Knight (9.0)… 2.5 margin
1993-94: John Stockton (12.6)/Muggsy Bogues (10.1)… 2.5 margin

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NFL Week 15 Stop Factor rankings: Race tightens for the number one spot

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

The interior of Qualcomm Stadium during a game...

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

With two weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, the Chicago Bears defense has taken the lead in the weekly NFL Stop factor rankings. The Bears “D” jumped over the San Francisco 49ers defense for first place in these rankings after the 49ers defense gave up 34 points in their win last Sunday night against the New England Patriots.

The surprising Seattle Seahawks, who host the 49ers tomorrow in Seattle, have moved in to second place in the rankings ahead of the 49ers.

(The Stop Factor is based on the premise that it is the defense’s job to stop their opponents from scoring on each possession. To get a team’s STOP Factor, you divide the number of times a defense stops the offense from scoring – offensive unit TD or field goal – by the number of total possessions by the opposition.)

Following is each NFL teams’ Stop Factor. Listed is how many times each team stopped the opponents from scoring, the number of possessions their opponents had, and the percentage of possessions that each team prevented the other team from scoring (stats are through Week 15 games).

Team, Opponents’ scoreless possessions/opponents’ possessions, Stop Factor percentage

1. Chicago 73.5 (119 stops in 162 possessions)
2. Seattle 72.9 (105 stops in 144 possessions)
3. San Francisco 72.7 (109 stops in 150 possessions)
4. Houston 72.1 (124 stops in 172 possessions)
5. Arizona 70.6 (120 stops in 170 possessions)
6. Denver 70.4 (114 stops in 162 possessions)
7. Cleveland 69.1 (114 stops in 165 possessions)
8. New York Jets 67.3 (107 stops in 159 possessions)
9. Cincinnati 67.1 (104 stops in 155 possessions)
10. Atlanta 66.9 (97 stops in 145 possessions)

11. New England 65.8 (106 stops in 161 possessions)
12. San Diego 65.6 (99 stops in 151 possessions)
13. Miami 65.1 (99 stops in 152 possessions)
14. Tampa Bay 65.0 (104 stops in 160 possessions)
15. Green Bay 64.7 (99 stops in 153 possessions)
16. Pittsburgh 64.6 (95 stops in 147 possessions)
17. Minnesota 64.3 (99 stops in 154 possessions)
18. Baltimore 63.0 (104 stops in 165 possessions)
19. St. Louis 62.7 (96 stops in 153 possessions)
20. New York Giants 62.5 (90 stops in 144 possessions)

21. Philadelphia 60.3 (91 stops in 151 possessions)
22. Washington 60.0 (93 stops in 155 possessions)
23. New Orleans 59.9 (94 stops in 157 possessions)
24. Detroit 59.6 (93 stops in 156 possessions)
25. Dallas 59.2 (84 stops in 142 possessions)
26. Tennessee 58.4 (90 stops in 154 possessions)
27. Indianapolis 58.1 (86 stops in 148 possessions)
28. Buffalo 57.0 (85 stops in 149 possessions)
29. Kansas City 56.3 (80 stops in 142 possessions)
30. Carolina 56.0 (79 stops in 141 possessions)
31. Jacksonville 55.2 (85 stops in 154 possessions)
32. Oakland 54.2 (84 stops in 155 possessions)

Biggest gainers this week: Atlanta (up five spots this week); Miami (up five spots this week).

Biggest losers this week: Buffalo (down six spots this week); Tampa Bay (down six spots this week).

Average league Stop Factor (through Week 15): 63.9

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp