Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

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While we may not be able to accurately pick which of the four teams will win their regional finals games this weekend, one thing is pretty sure: the games will be close.

Case in point: Of the 16 regional finals games from 2009-12, 11 were decided by seven points or less. In fact, the average margin of victory in those 16 games was 7.06.

Going back to 1985 when the NCAA went to a 64-team tournament, blowouts (for the purpose of this article, we’ll define a blowout as a win by 20 points or more) were much more common from 1985-99 than in this century. From 1985-99, there were 13 regional finals games decided by 20 points or more. Since 2000, there has not been a single regional final decided by 20 points or more.

Here’s a look at the final margin of victory in regional finals games since 1985 (totals since 2000 are listed in parenthesis). Note: 112 regional finals games have been played since 1985; 52 have been played from 2000-12

Margin of victory, number of games, pct (since 2000)

1-3 points: 24 games, 21.4% (10 games, 19.2%)
4-9 points: 38 games, 33.8% (19 games, 36.5%)
10-19 points: 37 games, 37.0% (23 games, 44.2 %)
20 points or more: 13 games, 11.6% (0 games, 0.0%)

The last regional final decided by 20 or more points was in 1999 when Duke defeated Temple, 85-64. Since then, the largest margin of victory has been 19 points, accomplished twice in regional finals games in 2008. Since 2009, no regional finals game has been decided by more than 13 points.

The largest margin of victory in a regional final since 1985 was 37 points, one of only two regional final games that were decided by 30-plus points since ’85. That 37-point game was in 1989 when Michigan beat Virginia, 102-65.

Here’s a look at the five regional final games that have had the biggest margin of victory since 1985.

Margin of victory, score, year

37: Michigan 102, Virgina 65, 1989
30: UNLV 131, Loyola-Marymount 101, 1990
27: Indiana 106, UCLA 79, 1992
25: Kentucky 106, Florida State 81, 1993
25: Utah 76, Arizona 51, 1998

Of the 13 teams that won a regional final by 20 points or more, six lost in their first game in the Final Four, four lost in the Final Four title game, and three won the title game. The three that won the title game: Michigan (1989), UNLV (1990) and Kentucky (1996).

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Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

Four regional semi-final games will be played Thursday and four on Friday as we get closer to finding out this year’s Final Four. How well have each of the seeds performed in past Sweet 16 games?

Since 1985, when the NCAA went to 64-team tournament, #1 seeds have won over 80% of their regional semi-final games; #2 seeds have won over 72% of their Sweet 16 games; and, #8 seeds have a 7-3 record (.700 winning percentage) in regional semi-final games. These are the only three seeds that have a winning record in regional semi-final contests.

If we look at the records of #1 and #2 seeds, these teams are 131-39 (.771 winning percentage) since 1985, while those teams seeded at #3 and below are 93-185 (.335 winning percentage) since ’85. Drop it down to the first four seeds and those teams are 175-101 (.634) in regional semi-final games since 1985 and those teams seeded 5th or below are 49-123 (.285 winning percentage).

Following are each seeds record and winning percentage in regional semi-final games from 1985-2012.

Seed #, win-loss record and winning pct. in Sweet 16 games

#1 seed     79-19 .806
#2 seed     52-20 .722
#3 seed     28-29 .491
#4 seed     16-33 .327
#5 seed      8-31 .205
#6 seed     13-25 .342
#7 seed      7-12 .368
#8 seed     7-3 .700
#9 seed      1-3 .250
#10 seed     7-14 .333
#11 seed     5-10 .333
#12 seed     1-18 .053
#13 seed     0-5 .000
#14 seed     0-2 .000
#15 seed     0-0 .000
#16 seed     0-0 .000

Here’s a few more interesting notes about the seed from regional semi-final (Sweet 16) games:

* #1 seeds are only 6-4 in the last three tournaments.

* At least one #2 seed has lost in the regional semi-finals in four of the last five years.

* At least one #3 seed has won a Sweet 16 game in 10 straight tournaments.

* #4 seed are only 5-17 in regional semi-final games this century.

* #5 seeds are 3-0 in the last three tournaments.

* A #7 seed had not won a regional semi game from 2006-11. Last year, #7 Florida won a Sweet 16 game.

* The last time a #8 seed lost a regional semi-final game was in 2002.

* The last time a #9 seed won a Sweet 16 game was in 1994.

* A #13, #14, #15 or #16 seed has not won a Sweet 16 game since the 1985 format began.

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Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

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The first week of the 2013 NCAA men’s Div. I basketball tournament is in the books and we have our Sweet Sixteen contingent. Three of the four number 1 seeds advanced, as did a trio of #2 seeds, three #3 seeds and a pair #4 seeds.

Three double-digit seeds remain in the tourney as #12 Oregon, #13 LaSalle and #15 Florida Gulf Coast won two games to reach the Sweet Sixteen. Three double-digit teams in the Sweet Sixteen matches the three that made the round of 16 last year.

Back in 1985, the NCAA went to a 64-team field for this tournament. Since that year, 61.9% of the teams making it to the Sweet Sixteen were teams that started the tourney as a #1, #2, #3 or #4 seed.

Another way of looking at this stat is that in the past 29 years of the tournament, 177 teams that were a #5 seed or lower made it to the Sweet Sixteen, an average of just over six teams per tournament (this year there are five teams seeded lower than a #4 seed still in the tourney).

Here’s a look at how many of each seed made it to the round of 16 in the tournament since 1985 (number of each seeds since 2010 is listed in parenthesis – total of 64 teams)

#1 seed…98 teams (13)
#2 seed…72 teams (11)
#3 seed…57 teams (8)
#4 seed…49 teams (8)
#5 seed…39 teams (3)
#6 seed…38 teams (4)
#7 seed…19 teams (1)
#8 seed…10 teams (1)
#9 seed…4 teams (2)
#10 seed…21 teams (3)
#11 seed…15 teams (4)
#12 seed…19 teams (3)
#13 seed…5 teams (2)
#14 seed…2 teams (0)
#15 seed…0 teams (1)
#16 seed…0 teams (0)

Here’s a few interesting notes about the seeds of the Sweet Sixteen teams from 1985 through 2013.

* #1 seeds: At least three of the number 1 seeds have made it to the round of 16 every year since 2005. At least three #1 seeds have made the Sweet Sixteen in 27 of the 29 tournaments; at least two #1 seeds has made the Sweet Sixteen every year.

* #2 seeds: At least two #2 seeds have made the Sweet Sixteen every year since 2001.

* #3 seeds: The only year that there was no #3 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen was 1997.

* #4 seeds: Three #4 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen last year was the most since 2000 when three #4 seeds made it to the round of 16.

* #5 seeds: No #5 seed made the Sweet Sixteen last year breaking a streak of 19 straight tournaments that a #5 seed has been in the final 16.

* #6 seeds: This is only the third year in the past six that a #6 seed has made it to the round of 16.

* #7 seeds: #7 Florida last year was the first #7 in the Sweet Sixteen since 2008.

* #8 seeds: Only two #8 seeds have made it to the Sweet Sixteen in the last 11 years.

* #9 seeds: Wichita State, a #9 seed this year, is only the third #9 seed to make the Sweet Sixteen in the last 19 years.

* #10 seeds: Three #10 seeds made the final 16 in 1999.

* #11 seeds: A #11 seed has made the Sweet Sixteen three of the last four years.

* #12 seeds: At least one #12 seed has made the Sweet Sixteen in nine of the last 13 tournaments.

* #13 seeds: #13 Ohio last year is the first #13 seed in the Sweet Sixteen since 2007.

* #15 seeds: This year’s Florida Gulf Coast team, seeded 15^th, is the first #15 seed to ever reach the Sweet Sixteen.

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Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

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Sixteen games highlight the action over the next two days in the men’s NCAA basketball tournament. Here’s an item you may want to keep by your side as you watch games this weekend. It takes a look at how the seed matchups have played out in the Round of 32 since 2000 (the last 13 tournaments). Also listed is how well each seed has done in the round of 32 since 2000. (Based on these numbers, keep an eye on 10th seeded Iowa State versus Ohio State, and the two 12 seeds, Oregon and California.)

Here’s the seed matchups from the Round of 32 since 2000.

Seed matchup in Round of 32, record of higher seed (matchups this weekend)

#1 vs. #8     24-5 .828 (2)
#1 vs. #9     21-2 .913 (2)

#4 vs. #5     12-14 .462 (1)
#4 vs. #12     10-4 .714 (2)
#5 vs. #13     5-1 .833
#12 vs. #13     5-1 .833 (1)

#3 vs. #6     17-12 .586 (2)
#3 vs. #11     13-7 .650 (1)
#6 vs. #14     3-0 1.000 (1)

#2 vs. #7     21-9 .700 (2)
#2 vs. #10     10-9 .526 (1)
#7 vs. #15     1-0 1.000 (1)
#10 vs. #15     2-0 1.000

Note: The #7 vs. #15 game between San Diego State and Florida Gulf Coast is only the second #7-#15 game since 2000. Last year #7 Florida faced #15 Norfolk State in the Round of 32.

Seed records in the Round of 32 since 2000

Seed #1     45-7 .865
Seed #2     31-18 .633
Seed #3     30-19 .612
Seed #4     22-18 .550
Seed #5     19-13 .594
Seed #6     15-17     .469
Seed #7     10-21 .323
Seed #8     5-24 .172
Seed #9     2-21 .087
Seed #10     11-10 .524
Seed #11     7-13 .350
Seed #12     9-11 .450
Seed #13     2-10 .167
Seed #14     0-3 .000
Seed #15     0-3 .000
Seed #16     0-0 .000

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