Monthly Archives: April, 2013

NFL Draft: 2012 success on the field from the 2012 selections

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’  is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

National Football League Draft

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The first round of the 2013 NFL Draft will take place tonight. The event has gotten so big that some people are making a living on everything NFL Draft (see Mel Kiper). Whether its predictions prior to the draft or analysis after the picks have been made, the NFL Draft is big business.

Another element of draft analysis are those people who try to evaluate whether or not a team had a good draft after that first season (for the draft choices) has been played. Well, let me take a shot at that…

How well did NFL team draft choices do in 2012? Here’s my formula: Let’s look at a few stats from the offensive and  defensive side.

First, how many of the 2012 draft choices scored TDs last season? Here’s a look at how many TDs were scored by passing, rushing and receiving from players drafted by each team in 2012.

TDs by drafted players, Team(s)
44: Indianapolis, Washington
30: Seattle
28: Cleveland
15: Miami
12: Tampa Bay
11: Philadelphia
8: New York Giants
6: Cincinnati
5: Jacksonville, St. Louis
4: Tennessee
3: Chicago, New York Jets
2: Arizona, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh
1: Baltimore, Buffalo, Denver, Houston, Oakland
0: Atlanta, Carolina, Dallas, Green Bay, Kansas City, New England, New Orleans, San Diego, San Francisco

Note: The Colts were led by #1 draft choice Andrew Luck who passed for 23 TDs and ran for five more. Five other 2012 draft choices accounted for the other 16 scores. The Redskins were led by #2 pick Robert Griffin III who passed for 20 TDs and ran for seven. Fellow rookie QB Kirk Cousins tossed four TD passes, and rookie running Alfred Morris has 13 rushing TDs, giving them their 44 TDs.

Next, let’s look at the other side of the ball. How many of the 2012 draft choices either had interceptions or sacks last season? Here’s a look at how many interceptions and sacks were recorded by each team’s draft choices from 2012.

Interceptions and sacks by drafted players, Team(s)
15: Seattle
13.5: Green Bay
11.5: Tennessee
10: New England, St. Louis
7.5: Philadelphia
7: Denver, San Diego
6.5 Carolina, New York Jets
6: Houston, Minnesota
5: Cleveland
4: Tampa Bay
3.5: Miami
3: Jacksonville
2.5: Chicago, Oakland
2: Detroit
1.5: Baltimore
1: Buffalo, Dallas, New Orleans, New York Giants, Washington
0.5: Cincinnati
0: Arizona, Atlanta, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, San Francisco

Note: The Seahawks were led by first round selection Bruce Irvin with eight sacks. The Packers got six interceptions from rookie draft choice Casey Hayward.

So, which of the players taken in the next couple of days will score a touchdown (via pass, run or reception), intercept a pass or get a sack in a game in 2013?

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

Brewers: The winning streak and winning record

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

We’re just a little over three weeks into the 2013 baseball season, but here’s a couple of stats that Milwaukee Brewers fans may find interesting.

* Team Streak. The Brewers defeated the San Diego Padres last night 6-3 for their ninth straight victory. This is the longest winning streak for the Brewers in the month of April since 1987. Do you remember that streak? The Brewers in ’87 opened the season with 13 consecutive wins.

This is the 12th time in team history that the Brew Crew has had a winning streak of five games or more in the month of April. The last time was in 2006 when they won five straight.

In 1998, the team had a five-game winning streak and a six-game winning streak in April.

As you might expect, these five-game (or longer) winning streaks in April don’t mean much when it comes to end-of-the-year success. Of the 10 seasons where the Brewers had at least one five-game or more winning streak in April, the team finished with a winning record in only five of those 10 years. They did have a five-game winning streak in April 1982 when they last appeared in the World Series.

* How do you win more games? Score more runs! The Brewers nine-game winning streak has upped the club’s record to 11-8 for the season. Even with a winning record, the team has allowed more runs than they have scored. The Brewers have scored 84 runs and allowed 86. They are one of two teams to have a winning record so far this season with fewer runs than runs allowed. The other team? The Minnesota Twins  are 9-8, but have allowed 81 runs while scoring 72.

In the 44-year history of the Brewers franchise, the team has always scored more runs that they allowed in seasons where they had a winning record, and have allowed more runs that they scored in years when they were under .500. In the two years where the Brewers were right at .500 (at 81-81), they scored more runs than they allowed in both years.

Last season in the majors each team with a winning record finished with more runs scored than allowed and each team with a sub-.500 record had fewer runs scored than they allowed. The last team to allow more runs than they scored in a year when they finished above .500 was in 2011 when the San Francisco Giants went 86-76 scoring 570 runs and allowing 578.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

NBA playoffs: A look at the first-round series stats

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

2007 NBA Playoffs logo.

2007 NBA Playoffs logo. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Each of the opening games in the first-round playoff series in the 2013 NBA playoffs went as planned as each of the higher seeds won the first game of the series.

Since 2003, the NBA playoff format has been 16 teams playing a best-of-seven series in the first round. There have been 80 first-round series since ’03, with the lower seed winning only 20 percent of those series that feature match-ups of the #1-#8 seeds, #2-#7 seeds, #3-#6 seeds and #4-#5 seeds.

Here’s a look at how many games (and series) the lower seeds have won since 2003 in the first round of the NBA playoffs.

Seed Match-up, Games won by lower seed (series won by lower seed)

#1 seed vs. #8 seed: #8 seed has won 29 games, 1.45 per series (the #8 seed has won three series since 2003)

#2 seed vs. #7 seed: #7 seed has won 27 games, 1.35 per series (the #7 seed has won one series since 2003)

#3 seed vs. #6 seed: #6 seed has won 43 games, 2.15 per series (the #6 seed has won five series since 2003)

#4 seed vs. #5 seed: #5 seed has won 53 games, 2.65 per series (the #5 seed has won seven series since 2003)

Note:

* Of the 16 lower seeds that have won a first-round series since 2003, none won their next series in the playoffs.

* In the 10 years with this current format, only two years (2004 and 2008) saw all eight of the higher seeds win the first-round match-ups. In 2007, three lower seeds won series, most in the 10 years.

* The last #8 seed to win a first-round series was last year when the Philadelphia 76ers defeated the Chicago Bulls; the last #7 seed to win a first-round series was in 2010 when San Antonio beat Dallas; the last #6 seed to win a first-round series was 2009 when Dallas defeated San Antonio; the last #5 seed to win a first-round series was in 2012 when the L.A. Clippers beat #4 seed Memphis.

* Fourteen first-round series since 2003 have been a four-game sweep. Eleven first-round series since ’03 have gone seven games.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

The long-ball haunts Brewers John Axford

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

John Axford pitching at Miller Park in 2011. {...

John Axford (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If your stat line reads four home runs in four games to start the season, that’s good, right? Well, it doesn’t if that stat line is pitcher John Axford’s stats after  his first four appearances in the 2013 season.

Axford has lost his closer role after surrendering four home runs and losing two games of the four he pitched in so far this season. Similar to the bump in the road he experienced last season we’ll see if Axford can regain his stuff and become the effective closer that he was in 2011.

Last season Axford gave up 10 home runs, making him the 20th Brewers pitcher who did not start a game to give up 10 or more home runs in a season. (Note: the Brewers record for most home runs allowed by a pitcher who did not start a game in a season is 16 by Luis Vizcaino in 2003. Eric Plunk in 1999 and Doug Jones in 1998 each surrendered 15 in a season.)

Looking at Axford’s numbers, it got me thinking about home runs given up by pitchers. We all know that Barry Bonds has the most career home runs with 762. But do we know who holds the career mark for most career home runs given up by a pitcher?

Jamie Moyer tops that list with 522. He is one of only two pitchers who has given up 500 or more career HR’s. The other? Robin Roberts who allowed 505 four-baggers.

Here’s a look at the pitchers who gave up 400 or more homers in their career.

Pitcher, Home Runs allowed
Jamie Moyer, 522
Robin Roberts, 505
Fergie Jenkins, 484
Phil Niekro, 482
Don Sutton, 472
Frank Tanana, 448
Warren Spahn, 434
Bert Blyleven, 430
Tim Wakefield, 418
Steve Carlton, 414
Randy Johnson, 411
David Wells, 407

Mark Buehrle leads the active pitchers with 302 home runs surrendered. Bartolo Colon follows with 296.

Getting back to the Brewers, Jim Slaton holds the franchise record with 192 home runs allowed. He is followed by Bill Wegman (187), Mike Caldwell (161), Ben Sheets (160) and Moose Haas (151). Braden Looper holds the team single-season mark; he surrendered 39 HRs in 2009.

While it highly unlikely Axford with jump into the Brewers career list in home runs allowed (he has given up 19 in his career), he is making his way up the ladder on the list of most career HRs allowed by a Brewers pitcher with no starts. As I stated before, Axford has given up 19 home runs. That places his 10th on the list of most HRs allowed by a pitcher with no starts. Vizcaino holds the team mark with 34.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp