Daily Archives: August 20th, 2013

San Francisco Giants approaching historic collapse

'''Giants Logo 2000–present'''

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistic blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

Last season the San Francisco Giants were celebrating their second World Series championship in three years. This year… well, they are sitting in last place in the National League West, 17 games out of first place, and 13 games under .500.

The Giants’ drop from World Series champs to cellar-dwellers is fast approaching historic significance. The Giants would become the sixth World Series champs in history to go from World Series title-holder to finishing 10 or more games under .500 the following season.

Fortunately for the Giants, the Florida Marlins of 1998 will likely hold this dubious distinction of going from World Series champs to a total collapse for a long time. The Marlins won the 1997 World Series and then in 1998 finished 54 games under .500.

Here’s a look at the 15 World Series champs who finished under .500 the following year.

Games under .500 after their World Series championship, team, year
54: Florida, 1998
14: Cincinnati, 1991
10: Chicago White Sox, 1918
10: St. Louis, 1932
10: Kansas City, 1986
9: Baltimore, 1967
8: Anaheim, 2003
6: Los Angeles Dodgers, 1989
6: St. Louis, 2007
5: Boston, 1919
5: Toronto, 1994
4: Pittsburgh, 1961
4: St. Louis, 1983
2: Los Angeles Dodgers, 1964
1: St. Louis, 1965

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99 Stats Until Kickoff (#83) Andrew Luck well worth the Colts pick as the overall number one

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck at the footba...

Andrew Luck (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

Stanford’s Andrew Luck in the NFL Draft in April, 2012 became the 18th quarterback taken with the first overall pick since 1970 in the NFL draft. The Indianapolis Colts obviously hoped that Luck would deliver wins and playoff victories in the same manner as the man he replaced, Peyton Manning, who was also the first overall pick in 1998.

For many experts, Luck and the Colts exceeded expectations last season as the team won 11 games and made the playoffs, and Luck tossed 23 TDs for over 4,300 yards.

Based on the rookie year performance of the previous QBs who were the first overall pick in the draft, we probably wouldn’t have expected Luck’s first season as the Colts leader to be that successful? First, based on the win-loss records of the other 17 QBs in games they started their first season, there weren’t many wins that rookie season. The other 17 No. 1 picks won 55 and lost 132 for a .294 winning percentage in games they started their first season. In addition, those QBs passed for an average of 11.9 touchdowns their rookie season.

Following are the career win-loss records of the 18 quarterbacks who were the No. 1 overall pick in an NFL draft.

Year Drafted, quarterback, Career W-L Pct. (rookie year W-L)

1998 Peyton Manning… 154-70 .688 (3-13)

2012 Andrew Luck… 11-5 .688 (11-5)

1970 Terry Bradshaw… 107-51 .677 (3-5)

1983 John Elway 148-82 .617 (4-6)

2004 Eli Manning… 78-57 .578 (1-6)

1989 Troy Aikman… 94-71 .570 (0-11)

2001 Michael Vick… 56-44-1 .559 (1-1)

2005 Alex Smith… 38-36-1 .513 (2-5)

1993 Drew Bledsoe… 98-95 .508 (5-7)

1971 Jim Plunkett… 72-72 .500 (6-8)

1975 Steve Bartkowski… 59-68 .465 (4-7)

2004 Carson Palmer… 54-67 .446 (0-0)

1987 Vinny Testaverde… 90-123-1 .423 (0-4)

2011 Cam Newton… 13-19 .406 (6-10)

2009 Matthew Stafford… 17-28 .378 (2-8)

1999 Tim Couch… 22-37 .373 (2-12)

1990 Jeff George… 46-78 .371 (5-7)

2010 Sam Bradford… 15-26-1 .369 (7-9)

2003 David Carr… 23-56 .291 (4-12)

2008 JaMarcus Russell… 7-18 .280 (0-1)

Here’s a look at which of the 18 QBs had the most TD passes that first season.

Most TDs passes in rookie year by overall No. 1 QB

26: Peyton Manning

23: Andrew Luck

21: Cam Newton

19: Jim Plunkett

18: Sam Bradford

16: Jeff George

Did you know? Prior to Luck being selected as the first overall pick in last year’s draft, of the 17 QBs who were the No. 1 overall pick since 1970, Sam Bradford won the most games in his rookie season with seven. Peyton Manning lost the most games his rookie year with 13. Michael Vick was the only QB to have a winning percentage at .500 or above in his rookie year starts; he was 1-1. The other 16 signal-callers were all under .500 in their rookie year starts. Luck obviously now tops the list with 11 wins his rookie season (a .688 winning percentage).

“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.