What will it take for the Broncos or Seahawks to win this year’s Super Bowl? Experts will tell us that a stingy defense and a solid ground attack are two good starts. Not committing a turnover is also good. Maybe a defensive or special teams TD will help the cause.
Let’s take a look back at the previous 47 Super Bowls and see which stats have been a good indicator for victory. Here are 24 stats and how often a Super Bowl team won (and lost) when they reached these noted statistics.
When a Super Bowl team…
Returned an interception for TD 11-0 (1.000)
Had a two or more takeaway margin over the opponent 27-2 (.931)
Had o turnovers 17-2 (.895)
Had three or more takeaways 31-4 (.886)
Did not throw an interception 29-4 (.879)
Had two or more rushing touchdowns 16-3 (.842)
Had 30 or more rushing attempts 35-7 (.833)
Made three of more field goals 10-2 (.833)
Rushed for 150-plus yards 17-4 (.810)
Held the opponent scoreless in the fourth quarter 19-5 (.792)
Had 400 or more total yards 14-4 (.778)
Held the opponents to under 50% pass completions 17-5 (.773)
Completed 70% or more of their passes 10-3 (.769)
Held opponents to 0 rushing touchdowns 24-9 (.727)
Had two or more takeaways 36-14 (.720)
Held the opponents scoreless in the third quarter 23-10 (.697)
Had three or more passing touchdowns 11-5 (.688)
Held the opponents under 10 points in the first half 27-13 (.675)
Held the opponents to 0 points in the first quarter 24-12 (.667)
Passed for 300 or more yards 9-5 (.643)
Did not allow a sack 7-4 (.636)
Recovered a fumble for touchdown 3-3 (.500)
Attempted 30 or more passes 20-33 (.377)
Returned a kick-off for TD 3-6 (.333)
Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp
In the 47-year history of the Super Bowl, there have been more games decided by 17 or more points (18 games) than by games decided by seven points or less (17 games). Last year’s Super Bowl, however, a three-point win for the Ravens over the 49ers, makes it now 11 of the 13 games in this century’s Super Bowls were decided by 14 points or less. In addition, five of the last six have been decided by six points or less.
Here’s a look at some other stats regarding the points scored in the Super Bowl (through the first quarter, at halftime, and final score):
* No team that scored less than 14 points in the Super Bowl has won the game. Teams with 13 or fewer points are 0-17.
* Teams that scored under 24 points are 13-40 (.245 winning percentage); teams that scored 24 or more points in the game are 34-7 (.829 winning percentage).
* Teams that scored 30-plus points in the Super Bowl are 24-2. The only two teams to score 30 or more points in a Super Bowl and lose: Dallas in Super Bowl 13 when they lost 35-31 to Pittsburgh, and the most recent Super Bowl with San Francisco putting 31 points on the scoreboard in their loss to Baltimore.
* Teams that scored under 20 points in the Super Bowl are 5-34 (.128 winning percentage). Teams that scored 20 points or more in the big game are 42-13 (.764 winning percentage).
* Teams that held their opponent scoreless in the first quarter of the Super Bowl won 24 and lost 12 (.667 winning percentage).
* Teams that held their opponents to only three points or less in the first quarter are 34-22 (.607 winning percentage).
* Teams that scored 13 or more points in the first quarter are 7-2 in the Super Bowl.
* Teams that were scoreless at halftime have never won a Super Bowl game (teams are 0-11).
* Teams that had three points or less at halftime are 3-20 (.130 winning percentage) in the game. The three teams that won Super Bowls after being held to three or fewer points at half: 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1988 San Francisco 49ers and 2007 New York Giants.
* Teams that have scored 16 or more points at halftime are 22-2 in Super Bowls (.917 winning percentage). The two teams that lost the Super Bowl even though they had scored 16-plus points by half: The 1982 Miami Dolphins (they had 17 points at half and lost to Washington 27-17); and the 1984 Dolphins (they had 16 points at half and were held scoreless in the second half in their 38-16 loss to San Francisco).
Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp