Can Aaron Rodgers rebound?


No, that is not a question being asked by the Milwaukee Bucks as they look to improve their team for the 2014-15 NBA season. It is, however, a question some in Packer Nation may be asking when they speculate how Rodgers will play this Sunday against the New York Jets.

That’s not to say that Rodgers played poorly in the Packers 36-16 loss to Seattle in Week One. But statistically speaking (and this is a “stats” blog), Rodgers’ numbers were not at a level we’ve come to expect from him. Rodgers had a Passer Rating of 81.5, had 189 yards passing, and had a TD and an interception in that game. Again, all numbers that are below Rodgers’ standard of play.

So how has Rodgers responded in the past when he has had a “less-than-stellar” game? Let’s look at the 88 starts he’s made for the Packers since 2008. Not counting last Thursday’s game, Rodgers has had 15 starts where he compiled a Passer Rating under 82. In the game following these 15 starts, Rodgers had a Passer Rating over 90 in 12 of the 15, and a Passer Rating above 100 in nine of the 15. If we take only the last four seasons (2010-2013), Rodgers has had nine games with a Passer Rating under 82. In the nine contests after these subpar performances, Rodgers had a Passer Rating over 100 in seven of those games, with one game at 98.

One other quick stat on Rodgers Passer Rating: In the six games where Rodgers started and had a Passer Rating under 70, in the following game his Passer Rating in all of those six games was above 90.

As mentioned above, Rodgers had less than 200 yards passing in the game versus the Seahawks. In his 88 starts for the Pack, Rodgers has thrown for less than 200 yards in 14 games (not counting last Thursday’s game). In the games following these 14, Rodgers threw for over 300 yards in seven of those 14 games and over 250 yards in 12 of the 14. In the 14 games after he had less than 200 yards passing in a contest, Rodgers had 34 TD passes and only seven interceptions in those next games.

Historically, and statistically speaking, it appears that Rodgers will have a good game on Sunday. He has had a Passer Rating under 82 in back-to-back games only twice in his career; both times happened in 2008, his first year as a starter.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp


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