With four weeks left in the regular season, the NFL playoff picture is starting to take shape. Realistically, about 10 teams have no shot at making the post-season or have been mathematically eliminated, and the rest at least still have a statistical shot at making the playoffs. Last season we had 10 of the 12 playoff teams win 10 or more games during the regular season

So how many wins will it take to make the playoffs this season? And, will we have our first seven-win playoff team since Seattle in 2010?

Since 1990, when the NFL went to six teams from each conference making the playoffs, there have been 288 teams that played in the NFL playoffs. Here’s a breakdown of the number of regular season wins by each of those teams.

7 wins: 1 team… Seattle in 2010 (0.4 percent)
8 wins: 10 teams (3.5 percent)
9 wins: 43 teams (14.9 percent)
10 wins: 71 teams (24.7 percent)
11 wins: 62 wins (21.5 percent)
12 wins: 47 teams (16.3 percent)
13 wins: 37 teams (12.8 percent)
14 wins: 13 teams (4.7 percent)
15 wins: 3 teams… Minnesota in 1998; Pittsburgh in 2004; Green Bay in 2011 (1.1 percent)
16 wins: 1 team… New England in 2007 (0.4 percent)

Here’s a breakdown of how many teams with 8 or more wins in the regular season since 1990 made the playoffs.

8 wins: 93 teams won 8 games; 10 made the playoffs; 83 did not… 10.8%
9 wins: 82 teams won 9 games; 43 made the playoffs; 39 did not… 52.4%
10 wins: 80 teams won 10 games; 71 made the playoffs; 9 did not… 88.8%
11 wins: 63 teams won 11 games; 62 made the playoffs; 1 did not… 98.4%
12 wins: 47 teams won 12 games; 47 teams made the playoffs… 100%
13 wins: 37 teams won 13 games; 37 teams made the playoffs… 100%
14 wins: 13 teams won 14 games; 13 teams made the playoffs… 100%
15 wins: 3 teams won 15 games; 3 teams made the playoffs… 100%
16 wins: 1 team won 16 games; 1 team made the playoffs… 100%

Here are a few more interesting stats:

* 95.9% of the teams that won 10 or more games since 1990 made the playoffs.

* New England is the only team since 1990 to win 11 games in the regular season and not make the playoffs.

* Of the 11 teams that made the playoffs since 1990 with eight or fewer wins, seven were Wild Card teams; four were division champs… San Diego (2008), Seattle (2010), Denver (2011) and Green Bay (2013).

You want a sure thing? It looks like 12 wins is that sure thing. Teams have a great chance with 10 or 11 wins (a 93 percent chance of making the playoffs). Nine wins? Teams have about a 50-50 chance.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp