Monthly Archives: November, 2015

The disappearance of the 20-game winner in baseball

Jake Arrieta

Jake Arrieta

This season two pitchers won 20 games in major league baseball: Jake Arrieta with the Cubs and Dallas Keuchel of the Astros. Ironically both of these pitchers won their respective league’s Cy Young Award. The two 20-game winners in the majors this past season were the fewest since only one in 2013 and none in 2009.

If we plot out the numbers of 20-game winners in each of the preceding decades going back to 1960, we discover that there has been a slow decline in pitchers who reach this milestone. In the 60’s there were 73 20-game winners; in the 70’s there were 96. In the 80’s that number dropped drastically to only 37; in the last two decades, the 90’s and the 2000’s, both of those decades saw 34 pitchers reach the 20-win mark. So far in this decade there have been only 16 pitchers who won 20 games, a average of 2.7 per year. If those numbers remain constant and play out to the end of this decade it would be the fewest number of 20-game winners in a decade.

Eight teams have not had a 20-game winner this decade. The Padres have the longest drought; the last 20-game winner in that franchise was Gaylord Perry in 1978.

Here’s a look at the eight MLB teams that have not had a 20-game winner this century.

Team, last 20-game winner (pitcher)
San Diego, 1978 (Gaylord Perry)
Baltimore, 1984 (Mike Boddicker)
Milwaukee, 1986 (Teddy Higuera)
Kansas City, 1989 (Bret Saberhagen)
Pittsburgh, 1991 (John Smiley)
Colorado, have never had a 20-game winner (first year of the franchise was 1993)
San Francisco, 1993 (Bill Swift/John Burkett)
Texas, 1998 (Rick Helling)

There has not been a team with back-to-back 20-game winners in the majors since 2005 (either the same pitcher or two different pitchers). In 2005 Houston’s Roy Oswalt won 20 games after winning 20 in 2004. It is not only the last time a team had back-to-back 20-game winners but also the last time any individual pitcher won 20 games in back-to-back seasons.

Seven teams have never had back-to-back 20-game winners in their franchise history: In the A.L., Seattle, Tampa Bay and Texas; in the N.L., Colorado, Florida, Milwaukee and Washington.

Here’s a look at the last time the other 23 franchises had 20-game winners in consecutive years (either the same pitcher or different pitchers).

Houston, 2004-05
Arizona, 2001-02
Oakland, 2001-02
St. Louis, 2000-01
Atlanta, 1997-98
Toronto, 1997-98
Chicago White Sox, 1992-93
Pittsburgh, 1990-91
Kansas City, 1988-89
Boston, 1986-87
Baltimore, 1979-80
N.Y. Yankees, 1979-80
L.A. Dodgers, 1976-77
Philadelphia, 1976-77
N.Y. Mets, 1975-76
San Diego, 1975-76
L.A. Angels, 1973-74
Detroit, 1972-73
Chicago Cubs, 1971-72
Minnesota, 1969-70
San Francisco, 1969-70
Cincinnati, 1962-63
Cleveland 1953-54

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

 

 

 

Packers Numbers Crunches: Game #11

GBPackers

Here are several stats you may not know from the Packers 17-13 loss to the Chicago Bears on November 26 (the stats all reflect regular season games unless otherwise noted).

  1. The Packers are now 13-7 in regular season games versus the Bears in the Mike McCarthy era (since 2006). It is interesting to note, however, that the team is 12-3 in games versus the Bears on Sundays since 2006, but are now 1-4 in non-Sunday games versus the Bears since ’06.
  2. In their seven losses to the Bears since 2006, the Packers scored under 21 in each of those games. In 12 of their 13 wins against the Bears since 2006, they scored over 21 points.
  3. Green Bay has now lost two straight in games when they hold the opponents scoreless in the first quarter. Since 2000 the Packers are 89-26 (.774) when they hold the opponents scoreless in the first period.
  4. Eddie Lacy had a TD reception in the game. It was the first game the Packers lost when Lacy had a receiving TD (they are now 4-1). The team is 14-7-1 in games where Lacy has at least one TD.
  5. Since 2010, the Pack is now 12-15-1 in games when they are behind at half. Since 2013 that record is 4-9-1.
  6. Green Bay is now 3-3 in games since 2000 when they are behind by one point at halftime.
  7. In the last two seasons the Packers are now 1-8 in games when they trail going into the fourth quarter.
  8. Aaron Rodgers’ 62.4 QBR was the lowest of any of his starts at Lambeau Field. His previous low at home was 80.1 versus the Dallas Cowboys on September 21, 2008. His lowest career QBR was 34.3 last season in a game versus the Buffalo Bills.
  9. Rodgers has now gone five straight games with a QBR under 100, the longest stretch in his career. He also now has four consecutive games where he had a completion percentage under 60%, also the longest stretch of his career.
  10. Green Bay has two turnovers in the game and is now 4-8 in the last 12 games where they had two or more turnovers.
  11. The Pack has now lost 19 games by one score (eight points or less) since 2010. Three of the losses were at the hands of the Bears, most by any team.
  12. Green Bay had four losses in the month of November for the first time since 2013. They also had four losses in November in 2008.
  13. The Packers were held scoreless by the Bears in the second half of the game yesterday. It was the 10th time since 2006 that they did not score a point in the second half since 2006 (they are 2-8 in those games). NFL teams that do not score in the second half of a game are 56-414 (.119 winning percentage) since 2006.
  14. The Green Bay defense did not have a takeaway in the game, the 14th time since 2010. They are 4-10 in those games.
  15. Yesterday was only the second time in 13 regular season starts versus the Packers that Jay Cutler did not throw an interception.

(Jerry Tapp is the author of the recently-published book, “250 Stats Every Packers Fan Needs to Know”)

Packers Number Crunches: Game #10

Packers#10

Here are several stats you may not know from the Packers 30-13 win over the Minnesota Vikings on November 22 (the stats all reflect regular season games unless otherwise noted).

  1. With a 30-13 win in the 3:25pm game time start, the Packers have now won eight straight in Sunday games that have started in the late afternoon (3pm to 430pm starts, local time). In the Mike McCarthy era (since 2006), the Packers are 25-8 (.758 winning percentage) in these games, and are 20-5 in these games dating back to 2010.
  2. Green Bay scored in the first quarter on a pair Mason Crosby field goals. They have now won 14 of their last 17 when they score in the first quarter of a game. Since 2000 they are 119-49-1 (.707) in these games. They are 48-10-1 (.822) since 2000 in division games when they score in the first quarter.
  3. The temperature at game time was 30 degrees. The Pack is 11-1-1 in games that start in temperatures below 32 degrees since 2010. Those 13 games are the most in the NFL since that year.
  4. Mason Crosby tied his career-high with five made field goals (he had five versus Detroit on October 6, 2013 at Lambeau Field). Green Bay is 11-0 when Crosby has made four or field goals in a game; they are 17-0 when Crosby scores 13 or more points in a game.
  5. The Pack had a 10-point lead at halftime. They are now 64-5 in games since 2000 when they are ahead by 10 or more points at half. They are 19-4 in road games since 2000 with a 10-point or larger lead at halftime.
  6. In the three Packers losses they have scored nine times in 38 drives (26.7 percent). In their seven wins they have scored 35 times in 71 drives (49.3 percent). They are 5-0 in the five games where they scored on 50% or more of their drives; they are 2-3 in games where they scored on less than 50 percent of their drives.
  7. In the seven Pack wins, they have 29 sacks. In their three losses, zero sacks.
  8. Eddie Lacy carried the ball 22 times for 100 yards. Green Bay is now 6-1-1 when Lacy gains 100 or more yards in a game; they are 11-2-1 when Lacy carries the ball 20 or more times in a contest. The eight games in between yesterday’s 100-yard game and the last time he gained 100 yards rushing in a game was the longest stretch of games where he gained less than 100 yards in a game.
  9. James Jones had six catches for 109 in the game. The Pack is now 9-3 in games where he tallies 100 or more yards receiving. Jones has 38 TDs in his teams’ 79 wins and 12 TDs in his teams’ 50 losses.
  10. Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson carried the ball 13 times for 45 yards in the game. In 14 regular season games against the Packers Peterson has rushed for over 100 yards eight times. The 45 yards in yesterday’s game tied his career-low against Green Bay. On November 11, 2007, his rookie season, he had 45 yards on 11 carries versus the Packers.
  11. The Packers are now 87-7 since 2000 in games where they score 30 or more points; they are 34-1 in division games. They are 59-1 since 2000 in games where they allow less than 14 points in a game; they are 26-1 in division games.
  12. Aaron Rodgers was 16-for-34 in the game, completing 47.1 percent of his passes. It was the sixth game he started in his career where his completion rate was under 50 percent. The Packers are now 3-3 in those games. In games where Rodgers completes under 60 percent of his passes, Green Bay is 11-18.
  13. The Packers had six sacks and five made field goals… it was only the 17th time in the NFL in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) that a team had six or more sacks and five or more field goals in the same game. It was the first time for the Packers in their history.

(Jerry Tapp is the author of the recently-published book, “250 Stats Every Packers Fan Needs to Know”)

 

NFL division champs with mediocre records

NFC East

Each NFL team has the pre-season goal of winning their division. How they do it, however, may be less of a concern.

Case in point: Take a look at today’s division standings. Among the undefeated, division-leading Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots are the 5-5 NFC East division-leading New York Giants and a pair of 5-5 teams, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, sitting atop the AFC South.

With seven weeks remaining in the 2015 campaign, there is a legitimate question (or maybe better stated, a concern) about whether or not a sub.-500 team will win a division title this year. Of course this would not be something new; in fact, the currently-unbeaten Panthers won the NFC South last year with a 7-8-1 record. They became the second team in league history to win a division title with a losing record… the Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West in 2010 with a 7-9 record.

Going back in NFL history 25 teams have won division titles with a winning percentage under .600. Here’s a breakdown of those teams.

Winning percentage, teams (year)

.438 2010 Seattle

.469: 2014 Carolina

.500 1985 Cleveland; 2008 San Diego; 2011 Denver

.531: 1978 Minnesota; 2013 Green Bay

.556: 1982 Atlanta .563: 1979 L.A. Rams; 1980 Minnesota; 1981 Tampa Bay; 1983 Detroit; 1984 Pittsburgh; 1988 Seattle; 1989 Buffalo; 1990 Cincinnati; 1999 Seattle; 2002 N.Y. Jets; 2004 Seattle; 2006 Seattle; 2007 Tampa Bay; 2008 Arizona; 2011 N.Y. Giants

.571: 1970 Cincinnati .594: 1989 Cleveland

As you probably noticed, the Seahawks have five of the 25 spots in the above list. They did it twice in the AFC West and three times in the NFC West. The Bengals, Vikings, Bucs and Browns each were listed twice.

If the AFC South champ this year finishes with a winning percentage under .600 it will be the first time for that division. It has happened six times in the NFC West, five times each in the AFC Central and NFC Central, four times in the AFC West, twice each in the AFC East and NFC South, and once in the NFC East.

One final note: Of the 25 teams, three were able to overcome a mediocre regular season and advanced to the Super Bowl that year. In 1979 the L.A. Rams won the NFC West with a 9-7 record and then lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-19 in the Super Bowl. Fast forward to 2008 when the Arizona Cardinals won the NFC West with a 9-7 record and then lost in the Super Bowl that year to the Steelers 27-23. The only team to win the Super Bowl after winning a division title with a winning percentage under .600 was the 2011 New York Giants. Although this wasn’t the most favorable NFL prediction, they won the NFC East with a 9-7 record and then won four straight in the playoffs to win the Super Bowl over the Patriots.

Of the first 14 teams (prior to 2000) to win a division with a winning percentage under .600 only three won a playoff game that year. Of the last 11 teams (since 2000) to win a division with a sub-.600 mark, eight won at least one playoff game that year. For more NFL insight/predictions, visit TheMachinesPicks.com.

(Jerry Tapp is the author of “250 Stats Every Packers Fan Needs to Know”)

NFL division champs with mediocre records

NFC East

Each NFL team has the pre-season goal of winning their division. How they do it, however, may be less of a concern.

Case in point: Take a look at today’s division standings. Among the undefeated, division-leading Carolina Panthers and New England Patriots are the 5-5 NFC East division-leading New York Giants and a pair of 5-5 teams, the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans, sitting atop the AFC South.

With seven weeks remaining in the 2015 campaign, there is a legitimate question (or maybe better stated, a concern) about whether or not a sub.-500 team will win a division title this year. Of course this would not be something new; in fact, the currently-unbeaten Panthers won the NFC South last year with a 7-8-1 record. They became the second team in league history to win a division title with a losing record… the Seattle Seahawks won the NFC West in 2010 with a 7-9 record.

Going back in NFL history 25 teams have won division titles with a winning percentage under .600. Here’s a breakdown of those teams.

Winning percentage, teams (year)

.438 2010 Seattle

.469: 2014 Carolina

.500 1985 Cleveland; 2008 San Diego; 2011 Denver

.531: 1978 Minnesota; 2013 Green Bay

.556: 1982 Atlanta

.563: 1979 L.A. Rams; 1980 Minnesota; 1981 Tampa Bay; 1983 Detroit; 1984 Pittsburgh; 1988 Seattle; 1989 Buffalo; 1990 Cincinnati; 1999 Seattle; 2002 N.Y. Jets; 2004 Seattle; 2006 Seattle; 2007 Tampa Bay; 2008 Arizona; 2011 N.Y. Giants

.571: 1970 Cincinnati .594: 1989 Cleveland

As you probably noticed, the Seahawks have five of the 25 spots in the above list. They did it twice in the AFC West and three times in the NFC West. The Bengals, Vikings, Bucs and Browns each were listed twice.

If the AFC South champ this year finishes with a winning percentage under .600 it will be the first time for that division. It has happened six times in the NFC West, five times each in the AFC Central and NFC Central, four times in the AFC West, twice each in the AFC East and NFC South, and once in the NFC East.

One final note: Of the 25 teams, three were able to overcome a mediocre regular season and advanced to the Super Bowl that year. In 1979 the L.A. Rams won the NFC West with a 9-7 record and then lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 31-19 in the Super Bowl. Fast forward to 2008 when the Arizona Cardinals won the NFC West with a 9-7 record and then lost in the Super Bowl that year to the Steelers 27-23. The only team to win the Super Bowl after winning a division title with a winning percentage under .600 was the 2011 New York Giants. Although this wasn’t the most favorable NFL prediction, they won the NFC East with a 9-7 record and then won four straight in the playoffs to win the Super Bowl over the Patriots.

Of the first 14 teams (prior to 2000) to win a division with a winning percentage under .600 only three won a playoff game that year. Of the last 11 teams (since 2000) to win a division with a sub-.600 mark, eight won at least one playoff game that year. For more NFL insight/predictions, visit TheMachinesPicks.com.

(Jerry Tapp is the author of “250 Stats Every Packers fan Needs to Know”)