Game Three of the World Series tonight. Each team has one win in the first two games.
Does either team have an advantage? Does a split in the first two games predict how long the series will go? What does splitting the first two games at home mean to the Dodgers? Let’s see if previous stats can predict this year’s World Series outcome.
First, since 1970 (46 different World Series from 1970-2016), 20 of those 46 World Series saw the teams split the first two games. Of those 20 series where the team split the first two games, nine went the full seven games, six went six games, and five ended up being a five-game series.
Of those 20 series (since 1970) where it was one game apiece after the first two games, the team that won the first game went on to win the World Series that year 12 times.
Of the 20 times since 1970 that the series was tied at 1-1, the home team of the first two games went on to win the World Series 10 times; obviously, the away team in those first two games went on to win the championship 10 times as well.
Based on these numbers, there appears to be a slight advantage for the Dodgers to win this year’s World Series in seven games.