Today’s Sports Stat: August 6, 2018

Based on the opponents on the Green Bay Packers 2018 schedule, is QB Aaron Rodgers likely to have a great, good, or challenging season?

In 142 regular season starts with the Pack, Rodgers has a 94-48 record. His career Passer Rating is 103.8, and he has completed 65.1% of his passes. With those numbers as the foundation, let’s take a look the teams against which he has had the best, and worst, career stats.

First, Passer Rating. Of the 10 teams that Rodgers has his best career regular season Passer Rating, five are on the 2018 schedule… a good sign for Packers fans. Of the 10 teams that Rodgers has the worst Passer Rating, only two are on the schedule this year.

Here are the Top 10 and Bottom 10 for Rodgers with regards to regular season Passer Ratings. (A * indicates that team is on the Packers 2018 schedule.)

Top 10
Cleveland 135.0
L.A. Chargers 132.5
Houston 122.4
Atlanta 112.2*
Denver 110.8
Kansas City 113.3
Minnesota 111.7*
L.A. Rams 117.5*
Washington 112.0*
Detroit 109.4*

Considering that the Packers will play the Vikings and Lions twice, the above means that Rodgers will play seven of his (hopefully) 16 games this season against teams that he has had success (or at least success, statistically speaking, in Passer Rating).

Bottom 10
Buffalo 67.8*
Baltimore 77.9
Oakland 80.9
Cincinnati 83.3
Tampa Bay 84.4
New York Jets 87.4
Tennessee 92.1
Jacksonville 93.0
Miami 93.0*
New England 95.4

For the record, Rodgers has a 106.1 Passer Rating in NFC games and a 97.3 Passer Rating in AFC contests.

Secondly, Rodgers is undefeated in his regular season starts versus five teams, two of which (Jets and Rams) are on the 2018 schedule. Rodgers is 4-0 against the Rams, and 2-0 against the Browns, Raiders, Jets and Chargers. He has a losing regular season record (under .500) against seven foes: Atlanta (2-4), Carolina (2-3), Cincinnati (1-2), Indianapolis (1-2), Pittsburgh (0-1), Tennessee (1-2) and Washington (1-2). Of this list of seven opponents, two are on the ’18 schedule… the Falcons and Redskins.

Finally, Rodgers regular season completion rate is 66.7% against NFC opponents and 60.5% versus AFC foes. Of the five teams that he has his best career pass completion percentage, only one (Atlanta) is on the schedule this season; of the five teams that he has his worst pass completion percentage, Rodgers will face four of them this season, Buffalo, the Jets, New England and Miami, ironically all AFC East squads.

Here are the Top 5 and Bottom 5 teams for Rodgers when it comes to pass completion percentage in his career.

Top Five
Cleveland 71.4%
Denver 71.7%
New Orleans 70.0%
Atlanta 68.9%
Seattle 68.6%

Bottom Five
Buffalo 50.7%
New York Jets 52.6%

Pittsburgh 54.2%
New England 56.0%
Miami 56.0%

 

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

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