Today’s Sportstat: March 11, 2019
11 stats you may not know about the Packers last 10 years in the draft
With the NFL Combine ending last week, the start of the free agency period getting ready to launch into frenzy mode, and the NFL Draft less than two months away, the Green Bay Packers off season is in full swing. The draft will take place April 25-27, with the Packers (at this moment) having the 12th, 30th and 44th picks in the draft… among a slew of additional picks in later rounds.
Who, or what type of player, will the Packers select with their picks? It’s anyone’s guess; there’s talk that an edge rusher is a high priority, and another tight end has been talked about with one of the early picks. Help on the offensive line has been discussed, and defensive backs are always a focus for the Packers in the draft.
Let’s take a look at the last 10 years of the NFL draft and 11 interesting stats that you may not know about the Packers draft choices from 2009-18. Will the past draft history of the Packers give us any indication how the team will draft this season?
- In the last 10 drafts, the Packers selected 89 players. Forty-four were defensive players, 43 played on the offensive side of the ball, two were special team players.
- Receivers topped the list of the position most drafted over the past decade by the Pack. There were 18 receivers/tight ends chosen over the past 10 years. Defensive linemen were close behind with 17 choices followed by defensive backs/safeties (14), offensive linemen (14), linebackers (13) and offensive backs (QBs and running backs) with 11.
- The average round where offensive players were selected by the Packers over the past 10 years was 4.53. The average round where defensive players were taken by the Pack over the past 10 years was 3.82.
- Breaking it down by positions, the average defensive back/safety was taken in the 2.9 round, followed by defensive linemen (3.9), offensive linemen (4.4), linebackers (4.7), offensive backfield (4.9) and receivers/tight ends (5.1)
- Twenty of the 44 defensive players (45.5%) selected in the past 10 years were chosen in the first three rounds of the draft. Only nine of the 43 offensive players (20.9%) chosen were selected in the first three rounds of the draft.
- Of the 14 defensive backs/safeties chosen by the Packers in the last 10 years, nine (64.3%) were selected in the first three rounds. Eight of the 17 (47.1%) defensive linemen chosen were picked in the first three rounds of the draft. Twenty-three percent of the 13 linebackers picked were in the first three rounds… 22% of the receivers were chosen in the first three rounds… 21.4% of the offensive linemen were taken in the first three rounds of the draft… 18.2% of the offensive backfield were selected in the first three rounds of the draft.
- Twenty of the 29 players (69%) chosen in the first three rounds of the draft in the last 10 years were defensive players.
- Eight of the 10 players picked in the first round by the Packers since 2009 were defensive players.
- Of the 21 players chosen by the Packers in the first two rounds of the draft in the past 10 years, 15 were defensive players.
- In the last 10 years, the Packers have chosen three players from one position in a draft four times: 2018-three receivers; 2017-three offensive backs; 2014-three receivers; 2012-three defensive linemen.
- The only offensive players chosen by the Pack in the first round over the past 10 years were Derek Sherrod in 2011 and Brian Bulaga in 2010.
Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp
Today’s Sportstat: March 4, 2019
Can Christian Yelich repeat his 2018 season?
One of the most frequent questions you will hear throughout Miller Park during the early months of the 2019 MLB season is… Can Christian Yelich have another big season?
Yelich won the National League MVP last season with a .326 average, 36 home runs and 110 RBI. While reaching these numbers again this season might be asking for much, it does beg the question… Can Yelich, statistically speaking, match his 2018 output?
To answer that question, let’s take a journey over the past five seasons and see how the last five MVPs in each league did the year following their MVP season.
For the record, here are the MVPs for each league from 2013-17:
American League: Miguel Cabrera (2013), Mike Trout (2014), Josh Donaldson (2015), Mike Trout (2016) and Jose Altuve (2017).
National League: Andrew McCutchen (2013), Clayton Kershaw (2014), Bryce harper (2015), Kris Bryant (2016), Giancarlo Stanton (2017).
As you can see, nine of the 10 MVPs prior to 2018 were everyday players (the only exception was Kershaw in 2014). To get a take on what has happened to previous MVPs and how it might answer the question about whether or not Yelich will match his 2018 MVP season, let’s see how the previous nine everyday MVPs did statistically when it comes to comparing the batting average, HR and RBI numbers from the MVP season to the following year.
Here’s what we find… of the nine non-pitcher MVPs from 2013-17:
- Only three of the nine increased their season HR totals the year after the MVP season;
- All nine saw their RBI totals the season after their MVP campaign decrease the following season;
- Only two of the nine increased their season batting average the year after the MVP year.
Here’s another stat using these year-after-the-MVP numbers… of the nine non-pitchers MVPs from 2013-17:
- Their season home run totals dropped by an average of 7.8 home runs from their MVP season to the following year;
- Their season RBI totals dropped by an average of 21.8 RBI from their MVP season to the following year;
- Their season batting average dropped by an average of 19.7 points from their MVP season to the following year.
If we apply the above numbers to Yelich’s totals from 2018 to project what he might do statistically (batting average, HRs and RBIs) in 2019, we would project Yelich to end 2019, the year after his MVP, with a .306 average with 28 home runs and 88 RBI. Again, this would be based on what we’ve seen from the past five MVPs in each year and what they did the year after their MVP campaign.
Those projected 2019 numbers would not be all that bad for Yelich, but certainly not where he ended the year in 2018. A World Series appearance for the Brewers in 2019 would certainly carry more weight than Yelich reaching his 2018 stats in 2019.
One more quick note: Looking at Clayton Kershaw’s MVP numbers the year after his MVP season, we see that in 2014 (the year Kershaw won the N.L. MVP) he had a 21-3 record with a 1.77 ERA and a WHIP of 0.857. Using those stats as a comparison, Kershaw dropped in each category the year after his MVP; in 2015 Kershaw had a 16-7 record, a 2.13 ERA, and a 0.881 WHIP. Very respectable numbers, but, again, he did not reach the numbers he had in his MVP season.
Will Yelich have a “successful” 2019 season? It all depends on how you want to define successful. History, however, may be telling us that Yelich may not reach the major stats he had in 2018. Are the Brew Crew faithful okay with that?
Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp
Today’s Sportstat: March 2, 2019
Who’s on first… for the Brewers on Opening Day?
If you are a diehard Brewers fan, you may find it hard to believe the following stat.
Did you know…
… from 2011-18, eight straight seasons, the Brewers have had a different starting first baseman on Opening Day. Yes, the Brew Crew’s Opening Day lineup has featured a different starter at first base for the last eight consecutive seasons.
Go back to 2011; Prince Fielder was the starting first baseman that season, the sixth straight year he was the Opening Day starting first baseman for the Brewers. After that, however, the Opening Day starting first basemen has looked like this…
2012: Mat Gamel
2013: Alex Gonzalez
2014: Lyle Overbay
2015: Adam Lind
2016: Chris Carter
2017: Eric Thames
2018: Ryan Braun
Conventional wisdom is that Jesus Aguilar, last year’s regular at first base for the Crew, will hold that spot on Opening Day in 2019… that is baring any injury that would prevent him from that honor.
So… if Aguilar mans the first base spot on Opening Day in late March this season, we could see yet another different first baseman on Opening Day for the Brewers, the ninth straight year that has happened.
Prior to this season, that longest stretch where the Brewers had a different Opening Day starting first baseman was 1998-2001. John Jaha was the Opening Day starter at first in 1998; the following year it was Sean Berry, followed by Kevin Barker in 2000 and Richie Sexson in 2001.
Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp