Monthly Archives: October, 2019

Today’s Sportstat: October 31, 2019

93-win Nationals make World Series history

Four different teams won 100 or more games in the majors in 2019: Houston, the L.A. Dodgers, the New York Yankees and the Minnesota Twins. When the ’19 post-season started, the common opinion and baseball wisdom had one of these four, especially either the Dodgers or the Astros, hoisting the championship trophy at the end of the World Series. In fact, many people had penciled in the Dodgers and Astros as the World Series combatants.

So much for common opinion and baseball wisdom. Of course, no one told the Washington Nationals what was supposed to happen.

The Nats, who won 93 games in the ’19 regular season, defeated the Dodgers three games to two in the National League Divisional Series and then won four road games against the Astros to win the title.

The World Series featured the 93-win Nats and the 107-win Astros, who led the majors in regular season victories this past season. That’s a 14-win disparity. In the history of the World Series, there has now been 32 times where the two teams playing in the Fall Classic had a 10-win or more disparity. The team with 10 or more regular season wins has now won the World Series in 20 of those 32 while the team with 10 or more fewer regular season wins have won 12 times, including this year’s Nationals.

This was the 10th time in World Series history that one of the teams had 14 or more regular season wins than their World Series opponent. Here are those ten times:

2019: Houston-107 wins vs. Washington-93 wins (14-win difference)
2018: Boston-108 wins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers-92 wins (16-win difference)
1998: New York Yankees-114 wins vs. San Diego-98 wins (16-win difference)
1961: New York Yankees-109 wins vs. Cincinnati-93-wins (16-win difference)
1954: Cleveland-111 wins vs. New York Giants-97-wins (14-win difference)
1944: St. Louis Cards-105 wins vs. St. Louis Browns-89 wins (16-win difference)
1932: New York Yankees-107 wins vs. Chicago Cubs-90 wins (17-win difference)
1927: New York Yankees-110 wins vs. Pittsburgh-94 wins (16-win difference)
1907: Chicago Cubs-107 wins vs. Detroit-92 wins (15-win difference)
1906: Chicago Cubs-116 wins vs. Chicago White Sox-93 wins (23-win difference)

Of the ten times listed above, in only three of those matchups did the teams with the fewer regular season wins win the World Series: the 1906 Chicago White Sox, the 1954 New York Giants, and the 2019 Washington Nationals.

One final stat: The Astros became only the eighth team in World Series history to enter the World Series with 105 or more regular season wins and then lose the World Series. The eight teams:

2019 Houston (107 wins)
2004 St. Louis (105 wins)
1969 Baltimore (109 wins)
1954 Cleveland (111 wins)
1953 Brooklyn (105 wins)
1943 St. Louis (105 wins)
1931 Philadelphia A’s (107 wins)
1906 Chicago Cubs (116 wins)

 

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

Packerstats 2019: Game 8, 31-24 win over Kansas City

PACKERSTATS-Game #8-2019 season

Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 31-24 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, October 28.

  • It seems as though the Packers this year have set a threshold for how many points they will allow to assure victory. Green Bay is 7-0 this season in games where they allow their opponents to score 24 or fewer points in a game. In the only game they lost this season, September 26 to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Packers allowed the Eagles to score 31 points.
  • Aaron Jones had 159 yards receiving and 67 yards rushing in the game. He became the 10th player in NFL history to have over 150 yards receiving and 60 or more yards rushing in the same game. The others on this list: Todd Gurley (2017), Le’Veon Bell (2014), Jahvid Bell (2010), Anthony Johnson (1992), Herschel Walker (1986), Joe Cribbs (1981), Ernie Green (1965), Ollie Matson (1954) and Ray Mathews (1954).
  • Aaron Rodgers had three TD passes and 305 yards passing in the game. It was the 34th game of his career that he had three or more TD passes and more than 300 yards passing in the same game. The 34 games with this stat places him fourth all-time on the league list behind Drew Brees (64), Tom Brady (49) and Peyton Manning (46). The Packers are now 27-7 (.794) in games where Rodgers has three or more TDs and 300+ yards passing. Rodgers did not have an interception in the game; it was the 26th game of his career where he had three or more TD passes, 300+ yards passing, and no interceptions. That ranks third on the all-time list behind Brees (37) and Brady (31). Green Bay is 22-4 (.846) in these games.
  • The Packers are now 7-2 since 2003 in road games versus AFC West teams.
  • Green Bay is now 4-7-1 (.375) against the Chiefs in the regular season since 1973. The .375 winning percentage against Kansas City is the second worst for the Packers all-time in the regular season behind the Miami Dolphins (5-10, .333).
  • Green Bay is now 20-13 (.606) in Sunday night games since 2000. They are 9-10 (.474) in Sunday night games on the road since 2000.
  • The Pack scored first in the game. They are 19-12 (.613) in road games since 2010 when they score first in the contest.
  • Green Bay scored 14 points in the first quarter. They have now won 26 of their last 28 games when they tally 14 or more points in the first quarter. They are 38-6 (.864) in games since 2000 when they score 14 or more points in the first quarter.
  • Kansas City scored 17 points in the second quarter. Green Bay is now 4-9 since 2000 in games where they allow 17 or more points to an opponent in the second quarter.
  • The Chiefs had a 17-14 lead at halftime. The Packers are now 18-47 (.277) in road games since 2000 when they are behind by three points or more at halftime.
  • Rodgers was sacked five times in the game. Usually, that is not good news for the Pack. They are 7-23 (.233) since 2000 in games where their QB is sacked five or more times. Ironically, the Packers have won both games this year where Rodgers was sacked five or more times (in Game One versus the Bears and this game).
  • Green Bay did not have a turnover in the game. They have now won six straight in games when they do not have a turnover, including five games this season. The five turnover-less games this year is already tied for sixth most in team history. The team record for most turnover-less games in a season is eight… it has happened three times, 2009, 2015 and 2016.
  • The game was tied going into the fourth quarter. It was the Packers first win on the road with the score tied going into the fourth quarter since 2003.
  • Rodgers had a Passer Rating of 129. His Passer Rating last week was a perfect 158.3. It was the first time Rodgers had a Passer Rating of 125 or higher in back-to-back games in the same season since 2014 when he had a PR of 151.2 versus the Bears in Week #4 and then had a PR of 138.7 in Week #5 versus the Vikings. The last time he had three consecutive games with a PR above 125 was in 2011 when he three consecutive games with a PR above 140 in Games 7 through 9.
  • The Pack went 4-0 in October games. It was their first 4-0 in October since 2013.

Today’s Sportstat: October 22, 2019

Two stats to keep an eye on in this year’s World Series

The 2019 World Series begins tonight as the Houston Astros host the Washington Nationals, who are making the first World Series appearance in franchise history.

Here are a couple of stats to pay attention to as this series plays out.

Home Runs. This year Major League teams hit more home runs than in any other season in baseball history. There’s little doubt that the long-ball plays an important part of today’s game. Washington had 231 home runs in 2019, sixth most in the National League and 13th most in all of baseball; the Astros, on the other hand, had 288 long balls, good enough for third most in the American League and third most in the majors.

Does the number of HRs a team hits in a game make a difference in whether a team wins or loses? In 2019, teams that hit three or more home runs in a game were 635-186, a .773 winning percentage.

Here’s a breakdown of how well MLB teams did when they hit zero, one, two, three, four, and five or more HRs in a game in 2019.

Zero HRs in a game: 360-960 .273
One HR in a game: 746-855 .466
Two HRs in a game: 688-428 .616
Three HRs in a game: 370-135 .733
Four HRs in a game: 164-38 .812
Five or more HRs in a game: 101-13 .886

Looking at World Series games since 2000, these numbers are not that different. Following are the same stats for home runs hit in a game in the World Series since 2000.

Zero HRs in a game: 36-49 .424
One HR in a game: 30-38 .441
Two HRs in a game: 25-15 .625
Three HRs in a game: 10-2 .833
Four HRs in a game: 4-2 .667
Five or more HRs in a game: 1-0 1.000

Starting Pitchers going six or more innings. We have seen a shift in baseball over the past several years where teams seem to focus on making sure their starter gets five innings and then it’s time for the bullpen to take over.

In the World Series since 2000, a starting pitcher has lasted six or more innings 110 times. His team has won 68 of those games and lost 42, a .618 winning percentage.

The trend, however, seems to show less dependence on the starter getting six innings or more. From 2000-2009, starters lasting six or more innings in the World Series happened 66 times with that starter’s team going 39-25 (.609) in those games. From 2010-18, starters lasting six innings or more in the World Series happened 46 times. Those teams did, however, won at a better clip, going 29-17 (.630).

BONUS STAT. This World Series is a matchup between the 107-win Houston Astros and the 93-win Washington Nationals. That’s a 14-win difference in the two teams. This is only the 10th time in World Series history that one team in the World Series had 14 or more regular season wins more than their World Series opponent. In fact, this is the second consecutive year this has happened; last year the 108-win Boston Red Sox defeated the 92-win L.A. Dodgers in the World Series. That 16-win difference was tied for the third-most in World Series history.

The biggest win difference in World Series history? In 1906, the 116-win Chicago Cubs faced off against cross-town rivals the Chicago White Sox, who had won 93 games, a 23-win differential. It’s important to note that the 93-win White Sox won that series. Of the nine previous times where a World Series matchup featured two teams that had a 14-win regular season differential, the team with fewer wins won three times. Most recent was in 2006 when the 83-win St. Louis Cardinals beat the 97-win Detroit Tigers to win the ’06 Fall Classic.

 

 

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

Today’s Sportstat: October 21, 2019

PACKERSTATS-Game #7-2019 season

Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 42-24 win over the Oakland Raiders on Sunday, October 21 at Lambeau Field.

  • Aaron Rodgers was the star of the game completing 25 of 31 passes (80.6%) for 429 yards and five TD passes. He became the fourth QB in NFL history to have five TD passes, over 400 yards passing and complete 80% of his passes in a game. The last player to reach these numbers was Deshaun Watson for Houston two weeks ago. Prior to that, Ben Roethlisberger did it on October 26, 2014 with the Steelers, and Drew Brees was the first QB to reach these numbers in a game on December 18, 2011 for the Saints.
  • Rodgers is now one of five QBs to have five or more games with five or more TDs with no interceptions. Brees tops this list with seven such games followed by Tom Brady with six games. Rodgers is tied with Peyton Manning and Roethlisberger with five games with five or more TDs and no interceptions.
  • Rodgers became the first GB quarterback to have a perfect 158.3 Passer Rating in a game. Rodgers has had a Passer Rating of 132 or above in 24 regular season games. The Packers are 24-0 in those games.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling had two receptions for 133 yards. He became the 14th player in NFL history to have 130 or more receiving yards in a game with only two catches. The others on this list: Tavon Austin (the last to accomplish this feat back in 2013), Pierre Garcon, Calvin Johnson, Johnnie Morton, Willie Gault, James Scott, Roger Carr, Isaac Bruce, Lance Rentzel, Homer Jones, Dick Dorsey, Del Shofner and Ollie Matson.
  • Green Bay is now 88-93-3 (.486) in regular season games versus AFC teams since 1970 (the AFC-NFC merger). They are 52-39-2 (.570) since 1970 in home games versus AFC teams.
  • The Packers have now won nine straight home games against AFC West teams.
  • Rodgers is now 8-2 (.800) with a Passer Rating of 114.1 against the AFC West in his career. It is the highest winning percentage and Passer Rating against any of the eight divisions.
  • Green Bay had a 21-10 lead at halftime. Green Bay is 42-3 (.933) since 2000 in home games when they tally 20 or more points in the first half.
  • Rodgers had a rushing TD in the game. It was the 26th regular season game where he had at least one rushing TD. The Pack is 15-11 in those games. This was the second game of his career where he accounted for six TDs (five TD passes/one TD run). On October 2, 2011 in a game versus the Denver Broncos, he had four TD passes and two TD runs.
  • The Packers did not have a turnover in the game and is now 23-3-2 (.857) in home games since 2010 when they did not commit a turnover in a game.
  • Green Bay is now 6-1 on the 2019 season. It is their first time at 6-1 since 2015. Prior to this season, the Packers started 6-1 in 14 seasons in their history. In two of those seasons they won the Super Bowl, and in four of those seasons they won an NFL title (pre-Super Bowl).
  • The Pack has now won 31 straight games at Lambeau Field when they score 40 or more points.
  • Green Bay had 421 yards passing and only 60 yards rushing. It was only the second time since 1970 that they had 400 or more yards passing in a game and 60 or fewer yards rushing. The other game was on October 11, 2004, a 48-27 loss to Tennessee. NFL teams are a combined 26-55 (.321) in games where they pass for over 400 yards and have 60 or fewer rushing yards in the same game.
  • Blake Martinez had a combined 16 tackles in the game (8 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles). It was the fourth game in his career where he had a combined 16 tackles in a game, the most for the Packers since 1970. The other players who have had 16 combined tackles in a game for the Packers since 1970: A.J. Hawk (one game), Nick Barnett (one game), Na’il Diggs (one game), Nate Wayne (two games) and Brian Williams (one game).
  • The Green Bay defense did not have a sack in the game. The team is now 3-8 since 2010 in games where the defense does not have a sack.

Today’s Sportstat: October 17, 2019

PACKERSTATS-Game #6-2019 season

Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 23-22 win over the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football, October 14 at Lambeau Field.

  • The Packers had three turnovers in the game while the Lions had no turnovers. How improbable was the Packers win based on their three turnovers and the Lions not having a turnover? In regular season games from 2000-2019, teams that have three turnovers and their opponents did not have a turnover have won only 36 games and have lost 597; that is a winning percentage of .057, meaning that based on these stats dating back to 2000, the Packers had about a 6% chance of winning that game on Monday because of their three turnovers and Detroit’s zero turnovers. The Packers have now won three games since 2000 when they had three turnovers and no takeaways in a contest, that is tied for the second-most in the league (the Rams have won four such games since 2000). It was Green Bay’s first win in a game where they had three turnovers and no takeaways since November 4, 2001 in a win 17-14 win over Tampa Bay.
  • Green Bay is now 25-10 (.714) in home games in October since 2000. They have won 17 of their last 20 home games in October.
  • Green Bay is now 11-8 versus the Lions since 2010, including a 7-3 record versus the Lions at home since 2010.
  • The Pack is now 33-32-1 in Monday night games since 1970. They have won five of their last six Monday night games. The 33 Monday night wins ranks seventh in the NFL; the San Francisco 49ers have the most Monday night wins with 49.
  • Green Bay won the coin toss and is now 32-8-1 since 2010 at Lambeau Field when they win the coin toss.
  • Detroit scored first in the game. The Packers are now 30-26 (.536) since 2000 in games at Lambeau Field where the opposition scores first in the contest.
  • As stated above, the Pack had three turnovers in the game. They are now 3-14 since 2010 in games where they have three or more turnovers. The Lions had zero turnovers; the Packers are now 6-24 (.200) since 2010 in games when they have no takeaways in a game.
  • Detroit put 10 points on the scoreboard in the first quarter. Green Bay is now 11-26 (.297) since 2000 when they give up 10 or more points in the first quarter of a regular season game.
  • The Packers did not score in the first quarter and are now 23-19 since 2000 in games at Lambeau when they do not score in the first quarter.
  • Detroit’s Matt Prater made five field goals in the game becoming the ninth opponent kicker to have five or more made field goals in a regular season game against the Pack.
  • The Lions had a 19-13 lead going into the fourth quarter. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, the Packers are 11-80-1 (.125) in games at Lambeau Field when they are behind by six or more points entering the fourth quarter.
  • Green Bay placekicker Mason Crosby connected on three field goals and two extra points for 11 points. It was the 56th regular season game in his career where he had 10 or more points in a game. The Packers are 47-8-1 (.848) in those games when Crosby scores 10 or more points.
  • The Packers sit atop the NFC North with a 5-1 record. Since 1966, Green Bay has now been 5-1 six times after six games played. In two of those years, they won the Super Bowl (1966 and 1996). The last time the Packers were 5-1 after six games was in 2007.
  • Green Bay has now won six one-point regular season games since 2000; the Dallas Cowboys top this list with 11 one-point wins since 2000.
  • Aaron Rodgers is now 31-12 in October games in his career, the most wins of any month in his career.
  • Jamaal Williams had 104 yards rushing in the game on 14 carries. It was the second-most rushing yards in a game in his career. The 7.43 yards per carry in this game was the highest of his career.
  • The Packers had 170 yards rushing in the game and is now 31-7-1 (.808) since 2000 in games where they have 170 or more yards rushing in a contest.
  • Allen Lazard led the Packers with 65 yards receiving in the game. Prior to that game, Lazard had one career catch for seven yards in a game versus the Lions last year. Lazard became the 37th different receiver who has caught a TD pass from Aaron Rodgers.
  • This was the first game with a score of 23-22 that the Packers have ever played in. There have been 13 NFL games that ended 23-22 since 1979.
  • Green Bay had 447 total yards in the game. Since 2010, they are 35-10-1 (.772) in games where they have 400 or more total yards in a game.