Today’s Sportstat: November 18, 2019

Will eight wins after 10 games get your team into the Super Bowl this season?

If history is any indication, this year’s Super Bowl teams may have already been narrowed down to six teams. The six? In the AFC, either Baltimore or New England. In the NFC, a four-team race between Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle.

Over the past five seasons, seven of the 10 teams that played in the Super Bowl had at least eight wins after their first 10 games played. Baltimore, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle are each 8-2 after playing 10 games this season, while the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers are both 9-1 after their first 10 games played.

Of course, that leaves three teams over the past five Super Bowl opponents that had less than eight wins after 10 games. One team was 7-3 while a pair of Super Bowl teams over the past five campaigns had a 6-4 record after 10 games. The 2014 Seattle Seahawks and the 2016 Atlanta Falcons were each 6-4 after 10 games in those seasons and reached the Super Bowl… both teams lost in that title contest. In 2018, the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots were 7-3 after 10 games and went on the win the title that year.

That certainly gives hope for such teams as Buffalo and Minnesota (they were 7-3 after 10 games) and Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, the Rams and Oakland, each 6-4 after 10 games.

Of the 18 teams that were at least 8-2 after 10 games over the past five seasons, all made the playoffs that year. On the flip side, teams that were 3-7 or worse after 10 games in a season did not made playoffs over the past five years. Note: One team, the 2014 Carolina Panthers, made the playoffs that year after starting the season 3-6-1 in their first 10 games. They ended the regular season with a 7-8-1 record that season.

For the record, 47 of the 62 teams (75.8%) that had six or more wins after 10 games in the last five seasons went on to play in the post-season that year.

Here’s a breakdown of how many teams made the playoffs over the past five seasons based on their record in the first 10 games.

Started the season…      # of teams        Made playoffs

0-10                                        3                           0

1-9                                          3                           0

2-8                                          12                        0

3-7                                          15                        0

3-6-1                                       3                           1

4-6                                          31                        3 (9.7%)

4-5-1                                       2                           0

5-5                                           28                        9 (32.1%)

5-4-1                                       1                           0

6-4                                          22                        12 (54.5%)

6-3-1                                       2                           1

7-3                                          18                        15 (83.3%

7-2-1                                       2                           1

8-2                                          10                        10 (100%)

9-1                                          6                           6 (100%)

10-0                                        2                           2 (100%)



Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp


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