Author Archive: Jerry Tapp

NBA Stats: Is it time to start promoting Bucks’ Malcolm Brogdon as this year’s ROY?

malcolmbrogdon

“With the 36th pick in the 2016 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks select Malcolm Brogdon, guard from the University of Virginia.”

When the Bucks made this selection of Brogdon in the second round of last year’s draft, there wasn’t much fanfare, in fact, most Bucks fans probably had little idea what the team was getting with Brogdon. Almost a year later, the team, its fans, and the NBA are taking notice of Brogdon and his play on the court.

At the All-Star break, Brogdon is averaging 9.4 points per game, 2.7 rebounds and 4.2 assists. He is also averaging 25.6 minutes per game, an unusually high number of minutes on the court for a first-year player, let alone a rookie who was drafted in the second round.

While the Bucks brass may be pleasantly surprised with Brogdon’s play, imagine the surprise of the rest of the NBA. In fact, you could certainly make a case for Brogdon as this year’s Rookie of the Year. Yes, a second-round player garnering a ROY Award!

Well, let’s take a moment and make the case for Brogdon as ROY. First, Brogdon has scored 517 points, most of any of the rookies taken in the second round. His closest competitor is fellow second-rounder Isaiah Whitehead of Utah who has scored 338 points for the Jazz. Not bad, you say. But here’s where things get interesting. In looking at all players taken in the 2016 NBA Draft, Brogdon’s 517 points ranks first; yes, that’s right, he has scored more points than every player taken head of him in the draft.

His 9.4 ppg ranks first among players drafted in 2016, as does his 4.2 assists per game. He also has 2.7 rebounds per game, not bad for a rookie guard… that stat ranks seventh among the draftees. His aforementioned 25.6 minutes per game ranks second among 2016 draftees (L.A. Lakers 2016 selection Brandon Ingram tops the list).

(Just for clarification, Brogdon ranks third in points for first-year players… a pair of Philadelphia 76ers, Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, lead the list of most points for rookies; neither was drafted in the 2016 NBA Draft, however.)

There is still a whole half of a season to go, but continued strong play from Brogdon will certainly keep his name near the top of the list for 2016-17 NBA ROY.

One more note about second-round draft choices by the Milwaukee Bucks. Brogdon has gotten off to a great start as the Bucks 2016 second round choice. But past history has shown us that the Bucks have selected a few other “gems” in the second round of the NBA Draft.

Here’s a look at the most career points in the league by players who were drafted in the second round by the Bucks. There are 15 players drafted in the second round by the Bucks who scored 3,000 or more points in their NBA careers. Of these 15, five never put on a Bucks uniform.

Year Drafted Player Career NBA points Games with the Bucks
1976 Alex English 25,613 142
2000 Michael Redd 11,972 578
2007 Ramon Sessions 7.005 124
1998 Rafer Alston 6,799 114
1994 Voshon Lenard 6,745 0
2005 Ersan Iluasova 6,339 453
1982 Fred Roberts 5.962 394
1995 Eric Snow 5,791 0
1991 Bobby Phills 5,153 0
2002 Ronald Murray 4,817 12
1987 Winston Garland 4,799 0
2009 Jodie Meeks 4,337 41
2003 Keith Bogans 4,257 29
2008 Luc Mbah a Moute 3.716 335
1979 Edgar Jones 3,257 0

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

NFL Stats: The importance of the second half of the season

ps-gbp

The 2016 NFL season is in the books, but how about one more stat from last season… (For those of you going through football withdrawals, maybe this will help!)

Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers fans will remember the ’16 season for many reasons including how their teams put together long winning streaks to finish the season. Both teams ended up in their respective conference championship games, although both lost in an attempt to make the Super Bowl.

How important is finishing strong in an NFL season? How important is the second half of the season?

Let’s take a look at the records of each of the 32 NFL teams in the second half of 2016… some very distinct numbers pop out.

Here’s the record of each NFL team in the second half of 2016 (Games #9 through #16).
*=Playoff team

7-1: New England*, Pittsburgh*

6-2: Atlanta*, Dallas*, Green Bay*, Kansas City*, Miami*, New York Giants*, Oakland*, Tampa Bay

5-3: Detroit*, Indianapolis, Seattle*, Tennessee

4-4: Arizona, Baltimore, Houston*, Washington

3-5: Buffalo, Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver, Minnesota, New Orleans, Philadelphia

2-6: New York Jets, San Diego

1-7: Chicago, Cleveland, Jacksonville, L.A. Rams, San Francisco

Did you notice the very clear stats that emerge from these records:

  • The 12 playoff teams had a combined record of 76-26 (.745) in the second half of the season. The teams that did not make the playoffs last season were a combined 52-102 in the second half (.338).
  • Twelve of the 18 teams that won at least four of their last eight games made the playoffs in 2016.
  • Eleven of the 14 teams that won five or more of their last eight games made the playoffs last season.
  • Teams that won their division (New England, Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Green Bay, Dallas, Kansas City, Seattle and Houston) were 47-17 (.734) in the second half of the season.
  • The two Super Bowl teams (New England and Atlanta) were a combined 13-3 (.813) in their last eight games of the season.
  • The four teams that played in the conference championship games (New England, Pittsburgh, Atlanta and Green Bay) were a combined 26-6 (.813) in the second half of the season.
  • The best second half by a non-playoff team last season was Tampa Bay at 6-2. Since 1988, the best second half of the season by a team that did not make the playoffs were the 1991 Philadelphia Eagles who went 7-1 in their last eight games but did not make the post-season.
  • Both Seattle and Houston finished the year 4-4 in 2016, but each made the playoffs. The 1999 Miami Dolphins and 2006 New York Giants both finished those seasons 2-6, but each made the playoffs that year. It was the worst finish in their last eight games by a playoff team since 1988.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

MLB stats: Winning 57 or more games at home

wrigley

With pitchers and catchers reporting this week, the start of baseball in 2017 is upon us. Here’s just a small taste of some baseball analytics to get you ready for the upcoming season.

Two interesting elements of the Chicago Cubs success last season was their dominance at home (57-24) and a 15-5 record in interleague play. Let’s, however, focus on their winning ways at Wrigley Field.

The Cubs last year became the 36th team in MLB history to win 57 or more games at home in a season. They were the first team to reach 57 wins at home since the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers won 57 games at Miller Park that season.

Of the 36 teams that have reached 57 or more wins at home in a season, 23 went on to play in the World Series that year with 12 winning the championship (the Cubs became the 12th team to do so.) That means that 13 of the 36 did not reach the World Series in the season they won 57 or more games at home. The aforementioned 2011 Brewers were the last team to fail to reach the World Series in a season where they won 57 or more games at home..

Here’s a look at the 12 teams to win the World Series in the same year they won 57+ games at home.

Year, Team, Home Wins in that title season
2016 Chicago Cubs, 57
2009 New York Yankees, 57
1998 New York Yankees, 62
1975 Cincinnati Reds, 64
1970 Baltimore Orioles, 59
1961 New York Yankees, 65
1942 St. Louis Cardinals, 60
1937 New York Yankees, 57
1932 New York Yankees, 62
1930 Philadelphia A’s, 58
1929 Philadelphia A’s, 57
1927 New York Yankees, 57

The 1961 Yanks top the list with most wins at home in a season, 65. The ’75 Big Red Machine is next with 64 wins at home. Ten of the 12 teams that won 60 or more games at home in a season eventually made it to the World Series that year with only five winning that crown that year (1932 Yankees, 1942 Cardinals, 1961 Yankees, 1975 Reds and the 1998 Yankees).

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

All-Star Game points by each NBA team since 2005

greek-freak

Milwaukee Bucks fans will see something they haven’t seen in more than a decade on February 19: They will see a player from their team playing in the NBA All-Star Game. Giannis Antetokounmpo will be a starter for the East squad in the game, making him the first Bucks player to play in the NBA All-Star Game since Michael Redd in 2004.

In that 2004 game, Redd tallied 13 points. Since that game in ’04, Bucks players have not scored a point in the All-Star Game. During that same timeframe, two teams, Miami and Oklahoma City, had players who scored over 300 points in the game. The Heat led the way with 368 points, while OKC/Seattle franchise players during that time had 337 points.

Following are the number of points scored by players from each NBA franchise in the NBA All-Star Game from 2005 to 2016 (current franchise city is listed).

Miami: 368
Oklahoma City: 337

Cleveland: 266
L.A. Lakers: 218

L.A. Clippers: 168
Phoenix: 159
Houston: 159
Boston: 150
New York Knicks: 142
San Antonio: 142
Indiana: 112
Atlanta: 110
Toronto: 106
Denver: 102

Orlando: 94
Dallas: 93
New Orleans: 86
Chicago:84
Detroit: 81
Golden State: 79
Portland: 78
Washington: 76
Brooklyn: 59
Minnesota: 51
Philadelphia: 45
Utah: 37
Sacramento: 25
Memphis: 24
Charlotte: 2
Milwaukee: 0

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

Super Bowl leads after the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters

sb51

Okay… let’s say you are watching the Super Bowl on Sunday and the Patriots score a pair of touchdowns in the first quarter and take a 14-3 lead going into the second quarter. With an 11-point lead after the first quarter, are the Pats assured of a victory? How well have Super Bowls teams done with a lead of 10 points or more in the first quarter?

Or… let’s say New England has the lead at halftime after scoring 17 or more points in the first half. Are they on their way to a victory?

Or… finally, the Falcons surprisingly go scoreless in the first half (something that would definitely be a big deal, especially considering their high-powered offense). How many Super Bowl teams have gone on to win the big game after going scoreless in the first half?

Well… I have some answers for you. Let’s start with the lead margin after each of the three quarters. Teams with a 10-point or bigger lead after the first quarter have gone on to win eight of 10 Super Bowls (a .800 winning percentage). Even just having the lead after the first quarter is a good omen; teams with the lead after the first quarter in the Super Bowl are 27-11 (.711 winning percentage).

The chart below breaks down the leads after each of the three quarters in the previous 50 Super Bowls. There are five categories: leads of one point or more, leads of three points or more, leads of seven points of more, and those of 10 or more and 14 points or more.

SUPER BOWL LEADS 1 point or more 3 points or more 7 points or more 10 points or more 14 points or more
Lead after the 1st quarter 27-11 .711 27-11 .711 17-4 .810 8-2 .800 3-0 1.000
Lead at halftime 37-10 .787 35-7 .833 29-3 .906 24-0 1.000 15-0 1.000
Lead after the 3rd quarter 40-9 .816 40-6 .870 33-3 .917 29-1 .967 21-0 1.000

Let’s answer the other two questions from the beginning of this column. Super Bowl teams that have scored 17 or more points in the first half are 19-1. The only loss was in 1982 when the Miami Dolphins had a 17-10 lead at halftime over Washington and lost that contest 27-17.

Super Bowl teams that have held their opponents scoreless in the first half have gone 12-0. If a Super Bowl team has held their opponents to three points or less in the first half of the big game, those teams are 21-3.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp