Will eight wins after 10 games get your team into the Super Bowl this season?
If history is any indication, this year’s Super Bowl teams may have already been narrowed down to six teams. The six? In the AFC, either Baltimore or New England. In the NFC, a four-team race between Green Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco and Seattle.
Over the past five seasons, seven of the 10 teams that played in the Super Bowl had at least eight wins after their first 10 games played. Baltimore, Green Bay, New Orleans and Seattle are each 8-2 after playing 10 games this season, while the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers are both 9-1 after their first 10 games played.
Of course, that leaves three teams over the past five Super Bowl opponents that had less than eight wins after 10 games. One team was 7-3 while a pair of Super Bowl teams over the past five campaigns had a 6-4 record after 10 games. The 2014 Seattle Seahawks and the 2016 Atlanta Falcons were each 6-4 after 10 games in those seasons and reached the Super Bowl… both teams lost in that title contest. In 2018, the Super Bowl champion New England Patriots were 7-3 after 10 games and went on the win the title that year.
That certainly gives hope for such teams as Buffalo and Minnesota (they were 7-3 after 10 games) and Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Dallas, the Rams and Oakland, each 6-4 after 10 games.
Of the 18 teams that were at least 8-2 after 10 games over the past five seasons, all made the playoffs that year. On the flip side, teams that were 3-7 or worse after 10 games in a season did not made playoffs over the past five years. Note: One team, the 2014 Carolina Panthers, made the playoffs that year after starting the season 3-6-1 in their first 10 games. They ended the regular season with a 7-8-1 record that season.
For the record, 47 of the 62 teams (75.8%) that had six or more wins after 10 games in the last five seasons went on to play in the post-season that year.
Here’s a breakdown of how many teams made the playoffs over the past five seasons based on their record in the first 10 games.
Started the season… # of teams Made playoffs
0-10 3 0
1-9 3 0
2-8 12 0
3-7 15 0
3-6-1 3 1
4-6 31 3 (9.7%)
4-5-1 2 0
5-5 28 9 (32.1%)
5-4-1 1 0
6-4 22 12 (54.5%)
6-3-1 2 1
7-3 18 15 (83.3%
7-2-1 2 1
8-2 10 10 (100%)
9-1 6 6 (100%)
10-0 2 2 (100%)
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PACKERSTATS-Game #10-2019 season
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 24-16 home win over the Carolina Panthers on Sunday, November 10.
- The Packers are one of only three teams this year that have already won more games this season than last season. The Packers have eight wins this year compared to only six last year. The other two teams… Oakland has five wins this season after only winning four last year; the San Francisco 49ers have eight wins this year compared to only four in 2018.
- It looks like the Pack continues to focus on keeping their opponents under 25 points. Green Bay is 8-0 this year in games when they hold the opposition to 24 or fewer points. They are 0-2 this season when the opponents score more than 24 points.
- Green Bay has now won four of their last five games in the week prior to their bye week.
- The Pack is now 5-2 against the Carolina Panthers at Lambeau Field.
- The Packers are now 12-7 against the NFC South since 2010. They are 9-1 against the NFC South in home games since 2010.
- Game time temperature was 34 degrees. The Packers are 38-10-1 (.786) in games at Lambeau since 2000 when the game time temperature is below 35 degrees.
- The Panthers scored first in the game. The Packers are now 14-22 (.389) since 2015 in games when the opponents score first.
- Aaron Jones had three rushing TDs in the contest. It was the fourth career game where Jones had two or more rushing TDs. The Packers are 4-0 in those games.
- The Packers defense had two takeaways. They are now 34-5 (.872) in home games since 2010 when they have two or more takeaways.
- Aaron Jones had three rushing TDs for the second game this season (he had four rushing TDs against Dallas earlier this season). He became only the fourth running back in Packers history to have two or more games with three or more rushing TDs in a Packers career. The others: Jim Taylor (6), Paul Hornung (4), Tobin Rote (2).
- Jones became the eighth Packers running back to have 10 or more rushing TDs in a season. (He now has 11 with six games to play… the team record for rushing TDs in a season is held by Jim Taylor; he had 19 in 1962.) The last Packers running back to have 10 or more rushing TDs in a season was Eddie Lacy with 11 in 2013.
- Preston Smith had a pair of sacks in the game. It was the fifth career game where he had two or more sacks. His teams are 5-0 in those games.
- Green Bay held a 14-10 lead at halftime. They have now won seven straight at home when they have a lead of four points or more at halftime. The team is 44-2-1 (.947) since 2010 when they have a lead of four points or more at halftime in home games.
- Tramon Williams had an interception in the game, the 29th of his Green Bay Packers career. That places him in 10th place all-time on the team list for career interceptions.
- Aaron Rodgers did not have a TD pass in the game, the second game this season where he did not have a TD pass. He has had 16 regular season games in his career where he did not have a TD pass in a start; the Packers are 6-10 in those games. Two of those wins came this season… a 34-24 win over Dallas where Aaron Jones had four TDs, and this win over Carolina where Jones had three TD runs.
- Davante Adams had seven catches for 118 yards, his 14th career game with 100 or more yards receiving. The Pack is 7-7 in those games. His 14 100-yard receiving games now puts him in 10th all-time on the Packers list for that stat. James Lofton tops the list with 32 100-yard receiving games as a Packer.
- The Packers had a 24-10 lead going into the fourth quarter. Since 2000, Green Bay has had 24 or more points going into the fourth quarter in 94 games. Their record in those games? 84-10 (.894).
- Green Bay had a 14-point leading going into the fourth quarter at home. They have now won 39 straight when they have a 14-point (or more) lead going into the fourth quarter. Their last loss when they had a 14-point lead at home going into the fourth quarter? October 12, 2003 versus the Kansas City Chiefs.
- The Pack had 163 yards rushing in the game. The team is now 8-3-1 since 2010 when they have 160 or more yards rushing in a contest.
- Green Bay is now 8-2 for the season. They had an 8-2 record four other times since 1966… 1966, 1996, 1997 and 2002. They went to the Super Bowl in ’66, ’96 and ’97, winning the Super Bowl in 1966 and 1996.
- The game was a 3:25pm (local) start at Lambeau Field. Green Bay has won 11 of their last 13 games that started at 3:25pm at Lambeau.
- Aaron Jones had 93 yards on 13 rushing attempts, an average of 7.2 yards per carry. It was the fourth game of Jones’ career where he had a yards per carry average above 7.0 (minimum of 10 rushing attempts) in a game. That is second most in Packers’ history. Ahman Green had eight games with a 7.0 yards per carry average with the Pack.
- Green Bay has won five games this year by eight points or less. That’s tied for the second most this season. Seattle tops the list with six one-score wins (eight points or less) in the NFL this season… through games of Sunday November 10.
Games before and after the bye week have been good for the Packers
After facing off against the Carolina Panthers in Green Bay this Sunday, the Packers will finally get their bye week for the 2019 season in Week #11. The following week, the Pack will venture out to San Francisco and take on the 49ers in their first game after the bye week.
Games prior to and after the bye week each year have been a relatively positive experience for the Pack, based on stats. Green Bay is one of 11 teams that have a .600 winning percentage or better in games after their bye week. The NFL went to a bye week format in 1990; since that year, the Packers are 18-12 (.600) in games after their bye week. Denver and Philadelphia top the list… each has a record of 22-8 (.733) in games after the bye week since 1990. The worst team after the bye week? The Cincinnati Bengals are only 8-21-1 (.283) in games after the bye week since the ’90 season. (Numbers above reflect games after the bye from 1990-2018.)
It’s interesting to note, however, that Green Bay’s success after the bye week has a dependent factor. It appears that the Green and Gold play a little better if their bye week is later on in the season than earlier in the campaign. This year, their bye week falls on Week #11 of the NFL season, the latest the Packers have had their bye since 1990.
Green Bay is 9-9 since 1990 in games after the bye week if their bye week was in Weeks #3 to #7; if, however, the bye week fell between Weeks #8 to #10, the Pack is 9-3 in those games after the bye week. In fact, the later the bye week the better… the Packers are 4-0 in games after the bye week if the bye week fell on Weeks #9 and #10.
That’s good news for the Packers as they will need to travel out to San Francisco on November 24 to play the much-improved 49ers in their first game after their bye week on November 17.
Here is a look at the Packers win-loss records in games after the bye week based on the week they had their bye that season.
Bye Week, Next Game record
Week #3: 0-1
Week #4: 3-0
Week #5: 1-1
Week #6: 1-3
Week #7: 4-4
Week #8: 5-3
Week #9: 2-0
Week #10: 2-0
If you are wondering how the Packers have done in games prior to the bye week, again they have seen a fair amount of success in those contests. The Packers are 18-12 (.600) in games prior to their bye week since 1990, including going 12-7 in those games this century and winning three of their last four games prior to the bye.
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PACKERSTATS-Game #9-2019 season
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 26-11 road loss to the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, November 3.
- The 26-11 score was only the second time that score had ended an NFL regular season game. The other time was on November 26, 2017 when the Jets defeated the Texans 26-11.
- The Packers scored exactly 11 points for only the second time in their history. The other time? A 35-11 loss to the Detroit Lions on December 31, 2017.
- Playing on the west coast has not been good for the Packers (they have an upcoming road game in California against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12, November 24) in the past few years. The Pack is 2-6 in games played in the Pacific Time Zone since 2012.
- This game against the Chargers was a 3:25pm start. Green Bay is 6-6 in their last 12 games played with a mid-afternoon Sunday kickoff.
- Green Bay ended their matchups against the AFC West this season with a 3-1 record. They are 16-4 versus the AFC West since 2003. The only 4-0 record against the AFC West during that time was in 2007.
- Despite the loss to the Chargers, the Packers still hold a 10-2 record against the Chargers in their history. That 10-2 record (.833 winning percentage) is still the best against any of the other 31 current NFL franchises.
- The Packers won the coin toss. They are, however, only 6-14 (.300) in their last 20 road games when they win the opening coin toss, including losing eight of their last nine.
- The Chargers scored first in the game. The Packers are only 13-22 (.371) since 2015 in games where the opponents score first in the contest.
- Los Angeles had a 9-0 lead at halftime. Green Bay is now 6-16 (.273) since 2000 in games where they are held scoreless in the first half. They are 1-9 in road games since 2000 in games when they do not score in the first half.
- With a win last week in Kansas City, the Packers were looking to win back-to-back road games. With the loss, Green Bay has not won road games in consecutive weeks since 2012 when they defeated the Texans and Rams in road games in consecutive weeks.
- The Chargers had a 19-3 lead going into the fourth quarter. Green Bay is now 9-83 (.098) since 1966 in games where they have three or fewer points going into the fourth quarter.
- Green Bay only had 24:09 Time of Possession in the game to Los Angeles’ 35:51. Green Bay is 9-22 (.290) in games since 2000 when they have less than 25 minutes TOP in a game.
- The Pack had only 13 first downs in the contest. The team is 6-14 (.300) in their last 20 games when they have 13 or fewer first downs in a game.
- The team had only 45 yards rushing in the game and is now 2-6 since 2010 when they tally less than 50 yards rushing in a contest.
- Green Bay had only 184 total yards in the game to the Chargers 442. Since 1970, NFL teams are 26-345 (.070) in games where they have less than 200 total yards and their opponents have 400 or more total yards. Green Bay is 0-13 in such games.
- Aaron Rodgers had only 161 passing yards in the game. Green Bay is 1-10 in games started by Rodgers where he has less than 170 yards passing in the game.
- Rodgers’ Passer Rating for the game was 85.5. Green Bay is 12-29 (.293) in games where Rodgers has a Passer Rating under 86.
PACKERSTATS-Game #8-2019 season
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 31-24 road win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, October 28.
- It seems as though the Packers this year have set a threshold for how many points they will allow to assure victory. Green Bay is 7-0 this season in games where they allow their opponents to score 24 or fewer points in a game. In the only game they lost this season, September 26 to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Packers allowed the Eagles to score 31 points.
- Aaron Jones had 159 yards receiving and 67 yards rushing in the game. He became the 10th player in NFL history to have over 150 yards receiving and 60 or more yards rushing in the same game. The others on this list: Todd Gurley (2017), Le’Veon Bell (2014), Jahvid Bell (2010), Anthony Johnson (1992), Herschel Walker (1986), Joe Cribbs (1981), Ernie Green (1965), Ollie Matson (1954) and Ray Mathews (1954).
- Aaron Rodgers had three TD passes and 305 yards passing in the game. It was the 34th game of his career that he had three or more TD passes and more than 300 yards passing in the same game. The 34 games with this stat places him fourth all-time on the league list behind Drew Brees (64), Tom Brady (49) and Peyton Manning (46). The Packers are now 27-7 (.794) in games where Rodgers has three or more TDs and 300+ yards passing. Rodgers did not have an interception in the game; it was the 26th game of his career where he had three or more TD passes, 300+ yards passing, and no interceptions. That ranks third on the all-time list behind Brees (37) and Brady (31). Green Bay is 22-4 (.846) in these games.
- The Packers are now 7-2 since 2003 in road games versus AFC West teams.
- Green Bay is now 4-7-1 (.375) against the Chiefs in the regular season since 1973. The .375 winning percentage against Kansas City is the second worst for the Packers all-time in the regular season behind the Miami Dolphins (5-10, .333).
- Green Bay is now 20-13 (.606) in Sunday night games since 2000. They are 9-10 (.474) in Sunday night games on the road since 2000.
- The Pack scored first in the game. They are 19-12 (.613) in road games since 2010 when they score first in the contest.
- Green Bay scored 14 points in the first quarter. They have now won 26 of their last 28 games when they tally 14 or more points in the first quarter. They are 38-6 (.864) in games since 2000 when they score 14 or more points in the first quarter.
- Kansas City scored 17 points in the second quarter. Green Bay is now 4-9 since 2000 in games where they allow 17 or more points to an opponent in the second quarter.
- The Chiefs had a 17-14 lead at halftime. The Packers are now 18-47 (.277) in road games since 2000 when they are behind by three points or more at halftime.
- Rodgers was sacked five times in the game. Usually, that is not good news for the Pack. They are 7-23 (.233) since 2000 in games where their QB is sacked five or more times. Ironically, the Packers have won both games this year where Rodgers was sacked five or more times (in Game One versus the Bears and this game).
- Green Bay did not have a turnover in the game. They have now won six straight in games when they do not have a turnover, including five games this season. The five turnover-less games this year is already tied for sixth most in team history. The team record for most turnover-less games in a season is eight… it has happened three times, 2009, 2015 and 2016.
- The game was tied going into the fourth quarter. It was the Packers first win on the road with the score tied going into the fourth quarter since 2003.
- Rodgers had a Passer Rating of 129. His Passer Rating last week was a perfect 158.3. It was the first time Rodgers had a Passer Rating of 125 or higher in back-to-back games in the same season since 2014 when he had a PR of 151.2 versus the Bears in Week #4 and then had a PR of 138.7 in Week #5 versus the Vikings. The last time he had three consecutive games with a PR above 125 was in 2011 when he three consecutive games with a PR above 140 in Games 7 through 9.
- The Pack went 4-0 in October games. It was their first 4-0 in October since 2013.