NBA Playoffs: Will home-court advantage regain its ‘mojo’ for Game 6?
OKC’s Russell Westbrook (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published daily focusing on stats that go beyond the numbers.
Just like the Oklahoma City Thunder who did it the night before, the Boston Celtics last night became the first road team to win in their series against the Miami Heat, defeating the Heat 94-90 in Miami. The home teams are now 8-2 in Conference Finals games this postseason.
But what about Game 6? Can the home teams (in this case OKC and the Celtics) both win Game 6 and win their respective series? Or will the Heat and Spurs steal a game on the road as their opponents did the last two nights?
In the past five playoff seasons (2008-2012) Game 6 has not been a sure thing for home teams. There have been 39 Game Sixes in the playoffs since 2008, with the home team winning 23 and losing 16, a .590 winning percentage. This would indicate that there’s a good chance that one of the road teams will force a Game 7 in their series. Will it be the Heat or the Spurs?
Home teams have won a little over two-thirds of playoff games this postseason. Here’s a snapshot of how well the home team has done in each round of the playoffs this year.
2012 NBA Playoffs
Conference Finals: 8-2 .800
Conference Semifinals: 14-8 .636
Conference First Round: 29-15 .659
2012 Playoffs: 51-25 .671
For comparison, here’s a look at the home record in the last four playoff seasons.
2011: 53-28 .654
2010: 55-27 .670
2009: 57-28 .671
2008: 64-22 .744
Over the past five years (2008-2012), there have been 74 playoffs series and 410 games. The home teams has won 280 of those games, a .683 winning percentage. Here’s a look at how the home-court advantage played out in each stage of the playoffs (conference first round, conference semifinals, conference finals and NBA finals) over those 410 games.
Playoff Round, Home Team win-loss record & percentage
Western Conference First Round, 76-34 .691
Eastern Conference First Round, 78-33 .703
Conference First Round total, 154-67 .697
Western Conference Semifinals, 37-16 .698
Eastern Conference Semifinals, 37-20 .649
Conference Semifinals total 74-36 .673
Western Conference Finals, 18-9 .667
Eastern Conference Finals, 18-9, 667
Conference Finals totals, 36-19 .655
NBA Finals, 16-8 .667
Note: If you’re looking ahead to a potential Game 7 in either series, the home team has won 10 and lost three (.769 winning percentage) in Game Sevens the past five years.
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2012 NBA Playoffs: Win-Loss Records in Series-Deciding Games (1984-2011)
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published multiple times weekly focusing on stats that go beyond the numbers.
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
How many of the NBA’s first-round playoff series do you think will go the full seven games? Based on the last nine years (the NBA went to seven-game first-round series format in 2003) there have only been 11 first-round series go seven games (11 of 72 series, 15.8 percent). In fact, the 2011 playoffs were the first since 1984 (when the league went to the current 16-teams-make-the-playoffs format) that none of the first-round playoff series went seven games.
Here’s a look at how many of the NBA playoff series have gone to a Game Seven since 1984:
First Round (since 2003): 11 of 72 series (15.8 percent)*
Conference Semifinals: 30 of the 112 series (26.8 percent)
Conference Finals: 12 of the 56 series (21.4 percent) Note: A Conference Finals series has not gone to a Game Seven since 2005!
NBA Finals: 5 of the 28 series (17.9 percent)
* From 1984-2002, the first-round series were five games. Of those 152 series, 52 (34.2 percent) went to a series-deciding Game Five. From 1984-2011, all series-deciding games (Game Five or Game Seven) happened in 63 of the 224 series, 28.1 percent. Total up all of the above and we see that since 1984, 110 of the 420 NBA playoff series has gone to a deciding-game (26.2 percent).
How well has your team done in series-deciding Game Five or Game Sevens since 1984?
Team, W/L in Deciding Games, (Game 7 W/L, Game 5 W/L)
Golden State 1-0, 1.000 (0-0, 1-0)
Dallas 6-1 .857 (4-1, 2-0)
L.A. Lakers 8-2, .800 (7-1, 1-1)
Phoenix 6-3 .667 (3-2, 3-1)
Boston 10-5 .667 (8-4, 2-1)
Denver 3-2 .600 (0-1, 3-1)
Atlanta 7-5 .583 (2-2, 5-3)
New York 8-6 .571 (3-5, 5-1)
Chicago 4-3 .571 (2-3, 2-0)
Utah 9-7 .563 (2-2, 7-5)
Detroit 8-7 .533 (5-3, 3-4)
Houston 6-6 .500 (4-4, 2-2)
Milwaukee 5-5 .500 (2-3, 3-2)
San Antonio 3-3 .500 (2-2, 1-1)
New Jersey 2-2 .500 (0-1, 2-1)
Orlando 2-2 .500 (2-1, 0-1)
Minnesota 1-1 .500 (1-0, 0-1)
Toronto 1-1 .500 (0-0, 1-1)
Oklahoma City/Seattle 6-8 .429 (3-2, 3-6)
Philadelphia 3-4 .429 (1-1, 2-3)
Miami 3-6 .333 (2-3, 1-2)
Portland 2-4 .333 (1-2, 1-2)
Cleveland 2-5 .286 (1-2, 1-3)
Indiana 2-6 .250 (2-3, 0-3)
Sacramento 0-5 .000 (0-3, 0-2)
L.A. Clippers 0-4 .000 (0-2, 0-2)
New Orleans/Charlotte Hornets 0-3 .000 (0-3, 0-0)
Washington 0-2 (0-1, 0-1)
Memphis 0-1 .000 (0-1, 0-0)
Charlotte Bobcats 0-0 .000 (0-0, 0-0)
Did you know? The Dallas Mavericks and Los Angeles Lakers have each have won four straight Game Sevens.
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