Based on the opponents on the Green Bay Packers 2018 schedule, is QB Aaron Rodgers likely to have a great, good, or challenging season?
In 142 regular season starts with the Pack, Rodgers has a 94-48 record. His career Passer Rating is 103.8, and he has completed 65.1% of his passes. With those numbers as the foundation, let’s take a look the teams against which he has had the best, and worst, career stats.
First, Passer Rating. Of the 10 teams that Rodgers has his best career regular season Passer Rating, five are on the 2018 schedule… a good sign for Packers fans. Of the 10 teams that Rodgers has the worst Passer Rating, only two are on the schedule this year.
Here are the Top 10 and Bottom 10 for Rodgers with regards to regular season Passer Ratings. (A * indicates that team is on the Packers 2018 schedule.)
L.A. Chargers 132.5
Kansas City 113.3
L.A. Rams 117.5*
Considering that the Packers will play the Vikings and Lions twice, the above means that Rodgers will play seven of his (hopefully) 16 games this season against teams that he has had success (or at least success, statistically speaking, in Passer Rating).
Tampa Bay 84.4
New York Jets 87.4
New England 95.4
For the record, Rodgers has a 106.1 Passer Rating in NFC games and a 97.3 Passer Rating in AFC contests.
Secondly, Rodgers is undefeated in his regular season starts versus five teams, two of which (Jets and Rams) are on the 2018 schedule. Rodgers is 4-0 against the Rams, and 2-0 against the Browns, Raiders, Jets and Chargers. He has a losing regular season record (under .500) against seven foes: Atlanta (2-4), Carolina (2-3), Cincinnati (1-2), Indianapolis (1-2), Pittsburgh (0-1), Tennessee (1-2) and Washington (1-2). Of this list of seven opponents, two are on the ’18 schedule… the Falcons and Redskins.
Finally, Rodgers regular season completion rate is 66.7% against NFC opponents and 60.5% versus AFC foes. Of the five teams that he has his best career pass completion percentage, only one (Atlanta) is on the schedule this season; of the five teams that he has his worst pass completion percentage, Rodgers will face four of them this season, Buffalo, the Jets, New England and Miami, ironically all AFC East squads.
Here are the Top 5 and Bottom 5 teams for Rodgers when it comes to pass completion percentage in his career.
New Orleans 70.0%
New York Jets 52.6%
New England 56.0%
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In the Pack’s 31-24 loss to Carolina in his return after a seven-week absence, Rodgers had three interceptions to go along with three TD passes. It was the first game in his career that he had three interceptions and three TD passes in the same game.
Rodgers became only the fifth Green Bay QB to have three interceptions and three TD passes in the same game. Lynn Dickey did it five times in his Green Bay career while Brett Favre did it in three Packers’ games. The other two Green Bay QBs who did it were Tobin Rote and Randy Wright, each who did it in one game.
George Blanda has the most NFL career games with three (or more) interceptions and three (or more) TD passes in the same contest. He did it in nine games.
Following are the NFL QBs with the most career games with three interceptions and three TD passes in the same game.
9: George Blanda
8: Dan Marino
7: Dan Fouts
6: Eli Manning, Johnny Unitas
5: Len Dawson, Lynn Dickey, John Hadl, Bobby Layne, Vinny Testaverde
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With Aaron Rodgers getting the clearance to play this week and Packers fans giddy with anticipation for what could happen over the next three weeks (and beyond) , how about an ARod stat to get everyone excited for Sunday’s game against the Carolina Panthers…
Not only are the Packers’ faithful glad to have Aaron back at QB, but there is also optimism that Rodgers may have another weapon at his disposal that didn’t seem present prior to his injury: A solid running game. A pair of rookie running backs, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams, has given the team a new level of excitement with their play in Rodgers’ absence. Just think, Aaron Rodgers with a solid running attack… things could get interesting.
Let’s add a few numbers to this speculation. A QB with a 100.0 Passer Rating and a running game that totals 100 or more yards in a game are just two stats that seem to indicate success in those two aspects of the offense.
Since 2008, when Rodgers became the Packers starting QB:
- The Packers are 67-12 (.848 winning percentage) in regular season games when Rodgers has a Passer Rating of 100 or above.
- The Packers are 67-20-1 (.767) in games where the offense has 100 or more yards rushing in a contest.
- There have been 49 games since ’08 when the Packers Passer Rating has been above 100.0 and the team rushed for 100 or more yards in the same contest. The Pack is 46-3 (.939) in those games.
- If we look at 110 or more yards rushing in a game and a Passer Rating of 110 or higher in the same game, Green Bay is 31-0 since 2008 and the team is 71-1 when they reach these two stat milestones in a game since 1970.
- Green Bay is 52-5 in regular season games when Rodgers has a Passer Rating of 110 or higher in that game.
You can imagine how explosive the Green Bay offense could be if Rodgers is playing at his usual high level and the running game, with Jones and Williams, eat up a chunk of yards.
For the record, a team having a Passer Rating of 100 or above and gaining 100 or more yards rushing in the same game is a pretty lethal weapon. NFL teams that reach these two stat numbers in a contest are 687-92-3 (.880 winning percentage) since 2010. In fact, every NFL teams except one, the Browns, has won 70% or higher of their games since 2010 when they gain 100 or more yards on the ground and have a QB Passer Rating above 100 in the same game.
Keep an eye on these two stats this Sunday. It could be a telling factor in whether or not the Packers will charge towards (and into) the playoffs this season.
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Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 27-21 win over the Cleveland Browns on December 10.
- Of the seven wins this season for the Packers, only two have come against teams that are currently above .500 (Seattle, 8-5, and Dallas, 7-6). The combined win-loss record today of the teams the Pack has beaten this season is 32-59 (.352). The combined record of the six teams that have beaten the Packers this season is 52-26 (.667). All six are currently above .500. Would’ve been kind of embarrassing if the teams that had beaten the Packers this year included the Browns at 1-12, huh?
- The last time the Packers lost to a team in the regular season that ended the year with fewer than four wins was in 2009. In Week #9 that year, the Packers lost to the Tampa Bay Bucs. The Bucs ended the year 3-13; the Pack ended the season 11-5.
- Green Bay had three drives of 11 or more plays in the game… they scored TDs on two of them; on one, they turned the ball over on downs. For the season, the Packers have had 26 drives of 10 plays or more, scoring 10 TDs and nine FGs, a 73% scoring rate on those 10-play or longer drives. The Packers have had 111 drives of less than 10 plays, scoring 24 TDs and four FGs, a 25.2% scoring rate on drives of less than 10 plays.
- Green Bay was behind 14-7 at halftime in the game. They are now 10-11 in road games since 2010 when they are behind by seven points or more at halftime.
- The Packers were behind by 14 points (21-7) entering the fourth quarter. Since 1970, the Packers were 0-63 in games where they had a 14-point or larger deficit going into the fourth quarter in a road game. It was actually the first time the Packers won a game on the road after being behind by 14 or more points going into the fourth quarter since 1957, a string of 77 games.
- Rookie running back Jamaal Williams scored a pair of TDs for the second game this season. He became only the third Green Bay rookie to score two or more TDs in multiple games for the Pack. The others: Gerry Ellis in 1980 and Travis Williams in 1967.
- This was the third overtime win for the Packers this season, most in franchise history. They won two OT games in 2000 and 1983.
- Green Bay scored 14 points in fourth quarter. Since 1970, they are now 20-14 in games on the road when they score 14 or more points in the fourth quarter. Since 2006, however, the start of the Mike McCarthy era, they are 11-3 when they score 14+points in the fourth quarter on the road.
- Not only did the Packers score 14 points in the fourth quarter, but they held the Browns scoreless in the fourth. The Packers are now 6-3 in road games when they score 14 or more points and hold the opposition scoreless in the fourth quarter.
- QB Brett Hundley was 35-for-46 with three TD passes and a 76.1% pass completion rate for the game. Only three Green Bay QBs have had a game with three or more TD passes and a completion rate of 75% or higher. The two: Aaron Rodgers (he did it twice) and Brett Favre (he did it once).
- Hundley’s 46 pass attempts made him the seventh Packers QB in team history to attempt 45 or more passes in a game. Favre tops the list with 26 games with 45 or more pass attempts, followed by Rodgers with 12. They are followed by Don Majkowski (4), Randy Wright (3), Lynn Dickey (2), Bart Starr (1) and Hundley.
- Davonte Adams had two TD receptions and 10 catches for the game. He becomes only the second Packer in history to have two TD pass receptions and 10 or more catches in the same game in multiple contests. The other is Sterling Sharpe (he did it in 1989 and 1993). Adams did it last season and this year. Four others players did it once: Jordy Nelson, Javon Walker, Antonio Freeman and Max McGee.
- Adams now has five career games with two or more TD receptions. Jordy Nelson tops the team list with 15 career games with two or more TD receptions.
- The Packers did not commit a turnover in the game and are now 19-5 since 2010 in road games when they do not have a turnover.
Green Bay quarterback Brett Hundley had no TD passes and three interceptions in his team’s 23-0 loss to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, November 19.
Hundley became the first Packers QB since Scott Tolzien in 2013 to have a game with no TD passes and three or more interceptions. Tolzien had no TD passes and three interceptions in a November 17, 2013 game against the New York Giants.
There have been 48 games in Packers history where their QB had three or more interceptions with no TD passes. The Pack is 6-42 in those games.
Hundley also became the 19th Green Bay QB to reach these numbers in a contest. Brett Favre and Bart Starr each had seven such games in their careers with the Packers, tied for most in team history.
Here are the 19 Green Bay QBs with the most games with no TD passes and three or more interceptions in the same contest.
7 games: Brett Favre, Bart Starr
6 games: Lynn Dickey
5 games: Tobin Rote
3 games: Babe Parilli, David Whitehurst, Randy Wright
2 games: Zeke Bratkowski, Don Horn, Jerry Tagge
1 game: Carlos Brown, Rich Campbell, Anthony Dilweg, John Hadl, Don Majkowski, Tom O’Malley, Bobby Thomason, Scott Tolzien
Did you notice the name that was not on the above list? Yes, Aaron Rodgers has never had a game with zero TD passes and three or more interceptions.
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