Tag Archives: AFC Championship Game

Today’s Sportstat: January 17, 2019

How many points will a team need to score to win the AFC or NFC title game?

We’re down to the final three games of the NFL season: In the AFC, the New England Patriots will travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs; in the NFC, the New Orleans Saints will host the Los Angeles Rams. The winners will square off in the Super Bowl.

Since the NFC-AFC merger back in 1970, it appears that if a team scored 20 or more points in a conference championship game, they had a pretty good chance of winning the game and advancing to the Super Bowl. Since 1970, teams that scored 20 or more points were 82-25 (.766 winning percentage) in the conference title game. In the AFC Championship Games since ’70, teams that scored 20 or more were 43-11 (.796) while NFC teams playing in the title game were 39-14 (.736) when they scored 20+ points in the title contest.

Here’s a breakdown of record of teams in each conference championship game based on the number of points they scored in the contest.

Points scored             AFC                     NFC                     Total

0-9                                 0-10                     1-16                     1-26 .037

10-19                             5-27                     8-18                     13-45 .224

20-29                            26-9                     21-14                    47-23 .671

30-39                            12-2                     14-0                     26-2 .929

40 or more points         5-0                       4-0                       9-0 1.000

As you can see, only two teams that scored 30 or more points in a championship game since 1970 lost the title game: Indianapolis defeated the New England Patriots 38-34 in 2006 and the Denver beat Cleveland in a 1987 season title game, 38-33. The only team to win a conference title game by scoring fewer than 10 points were the Rams in 1979; they defeated Tampa Bay 9-0.

Following are 10 stats you may not know concerning the AFC and NFC Championship Games since the 1970 merger:

Most appearances: AFC (Pittsburgh, 16), NFC (San Francisco, 15)

Most wins: AFC (New England, 10), NFC (Dallas, 8)

Most losses: AFC (Pittsburgh, 8), NFC (San Francisco, 9)Last title: AFC (NY Jets, Jacksonville, Cleveland and Kansas City have never won an AFC Championship Game; Miami has the longest drought of teams that have previously won a title since 1970… they last won in 1984/ NFC (Detroit has never won an NFC Championship Game since 1970; Minnesota has the longest drought of teams that have previously won a title since 1970… they last won in 1976.

Most home games: AFC (Pittsburgh, 11), NFC (San Francisco, 9)

Most home wins: AFC (New England, 7), NFC (Washington, 5)

Most home losses: AFC (Pittsburgh, 5), NFC (San Francisco, 5)

Most away games: AFC (New England & the Raiders, 6 each), NFC (Dallas, 9)

Most away wins: AFC (New Englland, 3), NFC (Dallas, 4)

Most away losses: AFC (Raiders, 5), NFC (Dallas and Minnesota, 5 each)

 

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

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‘Six Stats’ you may not know about this weekend’s NFL Conference Championship Games

NFC Championship Game logo

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

The NFL Conference Championship Games are set with the Baltimore Ravens going to New England in a rematch of last year’s AFC title game, and the Atlanta Falcons will host the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. The Ravens, Patriots and 49ers were each in the conference title game last year.

Here’s a few stats that you may find interesting about this coming weekend’s contests.

(Note: The following stats reflect the NFC and AFC Conference Championship games that have been played since the 1970 merger of the NFL and AFL… 42 years, a total of 84 games.)

1. The home team has won 56 and lost 28 in conference championship games (a .667 winning percentage). In the last six conference championship weekends, the home teams are 9-3. In the 42 seasons, there has been only twice where the home teams have both lost: 1992 and 1997.

2. In 28 of the 84 games (33.3%) the game has been decided by eight points or less. Twelve of the 84 games were decided by three points or less (including both games last year which were decided by a field goal); 15 of the 82 were decided by 20 points or more. In the last six seasons, eight of the 12 conference championship games have been decided by one score (eight points or less).

3. Teams that scored less than 20 points in a conference championship game since 1970 has won only 13 and lost 65 (a .167 winning percentage). Teams that scored 30 or more points have won 30 and lost only 2 (a .938 winning percentage). The only teams to score 30 or more points in a conference championship game since 1970 and lose? Cleveland in 1987 when they scored 33 in their loss to Denver; and in 2006 when the Patriots scored 34 in their loss to the Colts.

4. Teams that had the better regular season record have won the conference championship game 53 times and lost 20 (a .726 winning percentage). In 11 games the teams playing for the conference championship had the same regular season record.

5. Scoring more points in the playoff game the weekend prior to the conference championship is not a big factor in determining who will win the conference title game. The team that scored more points of the two conference championship game foes the previous week won 44 and lost 36 (in four cases the teams scored the exact number of points the previous week).

6. Winning the playoff game the weekend prior to the conference championship by a bigger margin than your conference championship game foe was a little bit more of a determining factor to who wins the conference championship game. The team that won the divisional playoff game by a bigger margin the week before won 53 times and lost 25 (a .679 winning percentage). Note: For the record, New England and San Francisco won by bigger margins this past weekend. In six cases the conference championship game teams won by the same margin the previous week.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

SIX STATS you might not know about… NFL Conference Championship Games

AFC Championship Game logo

Image via Wikipedia

“SIX STATS…” is a bonus feature of Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ and is published every Friday.

(Note: The following stats reflect the NFC and AFC Conference Championship games that have been played since the 1970 merger of the NFL and AFL… 41 years, a total of 82 games.)

1. The home team has won 55 and lost 27 in conference championship games (a .671 winning percentage). In the last five conference championship weekends, the home teams are 8-2. In the 41 seasons, there has been only twice where the home teams have both lost: 1992 and 1997.

2. In 26 of the 82 games (31.7%) the game has been decided by eight points or less. Ten of the 82 games were decided by three points or less; 15 of the 82 were decided by 20 points or more. In the last five seasons, six of the 10 conference championship games have been decided by one score (eight points or less).

3. Teams that scored less than 20 points in a conference championship game since 1970 has won only 13 and lost 64 (a .169 winning percentage). Teams that scored 30 or more points have won 30 and lost only 2 (a .938 winning percentage). The only teams to score 30 or more points in a conference championship game since 1970 and lose? Cleveland in 1987 when they scored 33 in their loss to Denver; and in 2006 when the Patriots scored 34 in their loss to the Colts.

4. Teams that had the better regular season record have won the conference championship game 52 times and lost 19 (a .732 winning percentage). In 11 games the teams playing for the conference championship had the same regular season record.

5. Scoring more points the playoff game the weekend prior to the conference championship is not a big factor in determining who will win the conference title game. The team that scored more points of the two conference championship game foes the previous week won 42 and lost 36 (in four cases the teams scored the exact number of points the previous week).

6. Winning the playoff game the weekend prior to the conference championship by a bigger margin than your conference championship game foe was a little bit more of a determining factor to who wins the conference championship game. The team that won the divisional playoff game by a bigger margin the week before won 51 times and lost 25 (a .671 winning percentage). In six cases the conference championship game teams won by the same margin the previous week.