NFL playoff seeds: Does it really matter?
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
With one week left in the 2013 regular season, there is still a lot of uncertainty about which teams will make the playoffs and which seed they have.
Back in 1990, the NFL went to a 12-team playoff system with six teams making the post-season from the two conferences; each conference is seeded from the top seed to the #6 seed. So with all this jockeying for playoff position, the question becomes… does it really matter what seed a team is in the playoffs? The obvious answer is “Yes.” To back up that statement, let’s look at how well each seed has done in the playoffs since 1990 when the current 12-team playoff format was put in place.
Division Seed 1990-99 2000-12 Total
AFC #1 11-9 13-12 24-21 .533
AFC #2 11-10 16-10 27-20 .574
AFC #3 10-10 14-12 24-22 .522
AFC #4 15-9 14-11 29-20 .592
AFC #5 4-10 7-13 11-23 .324
AFC #6 1-10 9-12 10-22 .313
NFC #1 22-4 16-12 38-16 .704
NFC #2 15-8 12-12 27-20 .574
NFC #3 5-10 11-13 16-23 .410
NFC #4 7-10 14-12 21-22 .488
NFC #5 3-10 8-12 11-22 .333
NFC #6 6-10 9-12 15-22 .405
Here’s a look at the win-loss records if we combine the seeds for the two conferences.
AFC/NFC combined W-L, Pct
#1 Seed 62-37 .626
#2 Seed 54-40 .574
#3 Seed 40-45 .471
#4 Seed 50-42 .543
#5 Seed 22-45 .328
#6 Seed 25-44 .362
Did you know? Thirty-four of the 46 Super Bowl teams since 1990 have either been a #1 or #2 seed. The NFC #1 seed has won seven Super Bowls since 1990, most during that time. The AFC #2, NFC #2 and AFC #4 have each won three during that time. The NFC #1 seed has played in 12 of the 21 Super Bowls since 1990.
Did you know? (Part 2) The AFC #5 seed and the NFC #3 seed have not won a Super Bowl since 1990; in fact, an AFC #5 seed has not appeared in the Super Bowl since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#63) NFL Playoff Seeds: Does it really matter… part 2
From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
In the previous item we looked at the playoff records of each of the seeds in both the AFC and NFC, and the combined records of the seeds since 1990.
In this item we look at individual seed match-ups and see how well seeds have done when they faced certain seeds. The following reflect records of AFC and NFC playoff games since 1990 (the last 23 post seasons).
#1 Seed vs. #2 Seed… #1 Seed is 14-9
#1 Seed vs. #3 Seed… #1 Seed is 5-1
#1 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #1 Seed is 15-7
#1 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #1 Seed is 8-3
#1 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #1 Seed is 11-5
#2 Seed vs. #3 Seed… #2 Seed is 23-7
#2 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #2 Seed is 8-7
#2 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #2 Seed is 6-3
#2 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #2 Seed is 2-2
#3 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #3 Seed is 1-0
#3 Seed vs. #5 Seed… No games
#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #3 Seed is 30-16
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #4 Seed is 31-15
#4 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #4 Seed is 1-0
#5 Seed vs. #6 Seed… No games
Did you know? Of the 230 playoff games in the last 23 years (excluding the Super Bowl games) the team with the higher seed has won 155 and lost 75 (a .674 winning percentage).
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#62) NFL playoff seeds: Does it really matter?
From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Back in 1990, the NFL went to a 12-team playoff system with six teams making the post-season from the two conferences; each conference is seeded from the top seed to the #6 seed. So with all this jockeying for playoff position, the question becomes… does it really matter what seed a team is in the playoffs? The obvious answer is “Yes.”
To back up that statement, let’s look at how well each seed has done in the playoffs since 1990 when the current 12-team playoff format was put in place.
Division Seed 1990-99 2000-12 Total
AFC #1 11-9 13-12 24-21 .533
AFC #2 11-10 16-10 27-20 .574
AFC #3 10-10 14-12 24-22 .522
AFC #4 15-9 14-11 29-20 .592
AFC #5 4-10 7-13 11-23 .324
AFC #6 1-10 9-12 10-22 .313
NFC #1 22-4 16-12 38-16 .704
NFC #2 15-8 12-12 27-20 .574
NFC #3 5-10 11-13 16-23 .410
NFC #4 7-10 14-12 21-22 .488
NFC #5 3-10 8-12 11-22 .333
NFC #6 6-10 9-12 15-22 .405
Here’s a look at the win-loss records if we combine the seeds for the two conferences.
AFC/NFC combined W-L, Pct
#1 Seed 62-37 .626
#2 Seed 54-40 .574
#3 Seed 40-45 .471
#4 Seed 50-42 .543
#5 Seed 22-45 .328
#6 Seed 25-44 .362
Did you know? Thirty-four of the 46 Super Bowl teams since 1990 have either been a #1 or #2 seed. The NFC #1 seed has won seven Super Bowls since 1990, most during that time. The AFC #2, NFC #2 and AFC #4 have each won three during that time. The NFC #1 seed has played in 12 of the 21 Super Bowls since 1990.
Did you know? (Part 2) The AFC #5 seed and the NFC #3 seed have not won a Super Bowl since 1990; in fact, an AFC #5 seed has not appeared in the Super Bowl since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990.
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
NFL playoff seed history points to an Atlanta-New England Super Bowl
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The final piece of the 2012 NFL playoff puzzle was completed last night when the Washington Redskins defeated the Dallas Cowboys 28-18 to win the NFC East title and the fourth seed in the NFC.
With the 12 playoff teams set on the journey for this year’s Super Bowl, the big question is: Who will face off in Super Bowl XLVII? (Super Bowl 47 for those of you who might be Roman-numerally challenged) Based on a few stats from the past 22 NFL playoffs, it wouldn’t seem too far-fetched to see an Atlanta Falcons-New England Patriots Super Bowl. Before you start throwing things at your screen, let me explain:
Back in 1990, the NFL went to a 12-team playoff system with six teams making the post-season from the two conferences; each conference is seeded from the top seed to the #6 seed (it is the system that is currently in place). As teams jockeyed for playoff position and seeding yesterday on the final week of the 2012 season, the question ultimately needs to be asked… does it really matter what seed an NFL team is when the playoffs begin?
The obvious answer is “Yes!” Let’s take a look at how well each seed has done in the NFL playoffs since 1990 when the current playoff format was put in place.
Division Seeds win-loss in playoffs from 1990-2011
AFC #1 seed: 24-20 .545
AFC #2 seed: 26-19 .587
AFC #3 seed: 23-21 .523
AFC #4 seed: 25-20 .556
AFC #5 seed: 11-22 .333
AFC #6 seed: 10-21 .323
NFC #1 seed: 37-15 .712
NFC #2 seed: 25-19 .568
NFC #3 seed: 15-22 .405
NFC #4 seed: 21-21 .500
NFC #5 seed: 10-21 .323
NFC #6 seed: 15-21 .417
The best winning percentage in the AFC is the #2 seed (good news for the Patriots), while the best winning percentage in the NFC and also best in the league is the #1 seed (good news for the Falcons).
Let’s take it a step further by combining the seeds for the two conferences:
#1 seed: 61-35 .635
#2 seed: 51-38 .573
#3 seed: 38-43 .469
#4 seed: 46-41 .529
#5 seed: 21-43 .328
#6: seed: 25-42 .373
Did you know? Thirty-three of the 44 Super Bowl teams since 1990 have either been a #1 or #2 seed. The NFC #1 seed has won seven Super Bowls since 1990, most during that time. The AFC #2 seed and NFC #2 seed have each won three during that time. The NFC #1 seed has played in 12 of the 22 Super Bowls since 1990; the AFC #1 seed is second with nine Super Bowl appearances in the last 22 years.
Bad news for Green Bay and Indianapolis. The NFC #3 seed and the AFC #5 seed have not won a Super Bowl since 1990; in fact, an AFC #5 seed has not appeared in the Super Bowl since the league went to the current format in 1990.
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