Tag Archives: Andrew Luck

Is Aaron Rodgers the NFL’s best QB ‘quarter by quarter?’

Aaron Rodgers 2011-5

(Photo credit: elviskennedy)

If you want to get into a heated debate, start a discussion about who is the best quarterback in the NFL today. Is it Peyton Manning? Aaron Rodgers? Tom Brady? Drew Brees? How about Russell Wilson, RG III or Andrew Luck?

Everyone has their own criteria for determining the best. Let me offer some thoughts for discussion.

First, let’s use the Passer Rating as the numerical yardstick. Secondly, let’s look at how well QBs perform in each quarter. Are some QBs better in the first quarter and less effective in the fourth quarter.

Following is a breakdown of the QBs with the best Passer Ratings since 2010 in the first, second, third and fourth quarters (minimum of 100 passes attempted in each quarter to qualify for the list).

First Quarter
1. Aaron Rodgers, 114.4
2. Drew Brees, 109.8
3. Russell Wilson, 107.5
4. Andrew Luck, 105.6
5. Matt Ryan, 103.5

Second Quarter
1. Peyton Manning, 111.8
2. Shaun Hill, 111.6
3. Russell Wilson, 107.3
4. Robert Griffin III, 105.1
5. Aaron Rodgers, 102.8

Third Quarter
1. Aaron Rodgers, 117.1
2. Philip Rivers, 108.7
3. Colin Kaepernick, 106.1
4. Peyton Manning, 105.9
5. Matt Schaub, 103.2

Fourth Quarter
1. Aaron Rodgers, 108.9
2. Peyton Manning, 101.7
3. Tony Romo, 100.6
4. Tom Brady, 98.8
5. Russell Wilson, 98.2

Based on the numbers above, we discover some interesting talking points:

* Rodgers is the only QB who had a 100 or higher rating in each of the four quarters.

* Brees and Brady had a 100 Passer Rating in the first, second and third quarters, but not the fourth.

* Rodgers, Peyton and Tony Romo were the only QBs to have a 100 Passer Rating in both the third and fourth quarters.

Let’s look at the 2013 season. Peyton Manning is having a great season and his Broncos have been an early season favorite to make it to the Super Bowl. Peyton has the highest Passer Rating this season of QBs in the first and fourth quarters. Peyton’s Passer Rating is 128.9 in the first quarter and 124.3 in the fourth quarter. Seattle Russell Wilson has the best second quarter rating at 127.34, and Cam Newton has the best third quarter rating at 139.1.

For those Aaron Rodgers fans wondering where Rodgers is at in these 2013 by-quarter Passer Ratings, he is still near the top. His first quarter rating is 106.7, second quarter 93.3, third quarter 117.2, and fourth quarter 105.1. Rodgers is very consistent in his overall passing performance over the course of a game; but it is interesting to note that he seems to do his best work (statistically) in the third quarter, yet the second quarter is his worst (in terms of Passer Rating) of the four quarters. Theories? I’ll throw one out there: Rodgers and his coach Mike McCarthy may be the best at making adjustments at halftime to what their offense needs to do to be successful in the second half.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp


99 Stats Until Kickoff (#83) Andrew Luck well worth the Colts pick as the overall number one

Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck at the footba...

Andrew Luck (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

Stanford’s Andrew Luck in the NFL Draft in April, 2012 became the 18th quarterback taken with the first overall pick since 1970 in the NFL draft. The Indianapolis Colts obviously hoped that Luck would deliver wins and playoff victories in the same manner as the man he replaced, Peyton Manning, who was also the first overall pick in 1998.

For many experts, Luck and the Colts exceeded expectations last season as the team won 11 games and made the playoffs, and Luck tossed 23 TDs for over 4,300 yards.

Based on the rookie year performance of the previous QBs who were the first overall pick in the draft, we probably wouldn’t have expected Luck’s first season as the Colts leader to be that successful? First, based on the win-loss records of the other 17 QBs in games they started their first season, there weren’t many wins that rookie season. The other 17 No. 1 picks won 55 and lost 132 for a .294 winning percentage in games they started their first season. In addition, those QBs passed for an average of 11.9 touchdowns their rookie season.

Following are the career win-loss records of the 18 quarterbacks who were the No. 1 overall pick in an NFL draft.

Year Drafted, quarterback, Career W-L Pct. (rookie year W-L)

1998 Peyton Manning… 154-70 .688 (3-13)

2012 Andrew Luck… 11-5 .688 (11-5)

1970 Terry Bradshaw… 107-51 .677 (3-5)

1983 John Elway 148-82 .617 (4-6)

2004 Eli Manning… 78-57 .578 (1-6)

1989 Troy Aikman… 94-71 .570 (0-11)

2001 Michael Vick… 56-44-1 .559 (1-1)

2005 Alex Smith… 38-36-1 .513 (2-5)

1993 Drew Bledsoe… 98-95 .508 (5-7)

1971 Jim Plunkett… 72-72 .500 (6-8)

1975 Steve Bartkowski… 59-68 .465 (4-7)

2004 Carson Palmer… 54-67 .446 (0-0)

1987 Vinny Testaverde… 90-123-1 .423 (0-4)

2011 Cam Newton… 13-19 .406 (6-10)

2009 Matthew Stafford… 17-28 .378 (2-8)

1999 Tim Couch… 22-37 .373 (2-12)

1990 Jeff George… 46-78 .371 (5-7)

2010 Sam Bradford… 15-26-1 .369 (7-9)

2003 David Carr… 23-56 .291 (4-12)

2008 JaMarcus Russell… 7-18 .280 (0-1)

Here’s a look at which of the 18 QBs had the most TD passes that first season.

Most TDs passes in rookie year by overall No. 1 QB

26: Peyton Manning

23: Andrew Luck

21: Cam Newton

19: Jim Plunkett

18: Sam Bradford

16: Jeff George

Did you know? Prior to Luck being selected as the first overall pick in last year’s draft, of the 17 QBs who were the No. 1 overall pick since 1970, Sam Bradford won the most games in his rookie season with seven. Peyton Manning lost the most games his rookie year with 13. Michael Vick was the only QB to have a winning percentage at .500 or above in his rookie year starts; he was 1-1. The other 16 signal-callers were all under .500 in their rookie year starts. Luck obviously now tops the list with 11 wins his rookie season (a .688 winning percentage).

“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.