Ravens first Super Bowl champs to get ‘blown out’ in next game
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Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.
For the sake of this column, let’s define a “blow out” as a game in which a team loses by 20 or more points. With that established, the Ravens 49-27 loss to the Denver Broncos last Thursday night in the 2013 NFL season‘s first game was one of historic proportions: Baltimore‘s 22-point loss was the first time in NFL history that a Super Bowl champ lost their first game of the following season by 20 points or more.
The Raven’s 22-point loss was not the only “blow out” in Week One. The Kansas City Chiefs had the largest margin of victory in Week One with a 28-2 win over Jacksonville.
Since 2000, there have been 40 “blow outs” on Opening Weekend. Here’s a look at the teams which have won the most Opening Weekend blow outs and those teams which have lost the most Opening Weekend blow outs since 2000.
Most Opening Weekend blow out wins since 2000
3: Baltimore, Buffalo, Denver, Miami, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, San Diego
2: Chicago, Houston, Indianapolis, Kansas City, New England, Seattle
1: Green Bay, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New York Giants, New York Jets, San Francisco, Tennessee
Most Opening Weekend blow out losses since 2000
3: Cincinnati, New York Jets, Oakland
2: Cleveland, Detroit, Indianapolis, Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee
1: Arizona, Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Carolina, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Minnesota, New England, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, Washington
So… is a blow out loss on Opening Weekend a bad omen? Does a blow out win signal great things for the rest of the season? If we look at the 16 games in the last five seasons that were blow outs on Opening Weekend, we can come up with some interesting stats (these stats reflect games from 2008-2012):
* Of the 16 teams that had Opening Weekend blow out wins in the past five years, eight went on to make the playoffs. Of the 16 who started the season with an Opening Weekend blow out loss, only three made the playoffs that year.
* The 16 teams that had Opening Weekend blow out wins since 2008 had a combined record of 143-112-1 (.561 winning percentage) in that season. The 16 teams that suffered Opening Weekend blow out losses since 2008 had a combined record of 103-153 (.402 winning percentage) in that season.
For the record, since the start of the Super Bowl era, three teams lost their Opening Game by 50 points or more: Denver lost 51-0 to Oakland in 1967; New Orleans lost 62-7 to Atlanta in 1973; Pittsburgh lost 51-0 to Cleveland in 1989.
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What’s happened to this year’s Opening Day pitchers?
Clayton Kershaw (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.
Usually, we think of a team’s Opening Day pitcher as their number one starter in the rotation. In many cases that is true. But in others cases, injuries, contract disputes, or other factors put a team’s best pitcher on the sideline when the season opens.
Let’s take a look at Opening Day 2013. Thirty different pitchers took to the mound as their team’s Opening Day hurler. The question is, how many of those pitchers who took the ball in their team’s first game of the year have had success so far in 2013?
First, did you know that three pitchers who were Opening Day starters this year are no longer with those teams? The three are Ricky Nolasco (he started Opening Day from Miami and was traded to the Dodgers), Ian Kennedy (he started for Arizona and was traded to San Diego, and Bud Norris (he started for Houston and was traded to Baltimore).
At the top end of the scale, two pitchers, Adam Wainwright (St. Louis) and Justin Masterson (Cleveland) have 13 wins so far this season. Seattle’s Opening Day starter Felix Hernandez is the only one of the 30 Opening Day starters who has a winning percentage of .700 or better (he is 12-5, a .706 winning percentage).
At the other end is Matt Harrison. He started Texas’s first game of the year and quickly fell to 0-2 before his season ended with lower back surgery.
Here’s a look at the current pitching records of the 30 Opening Day-2013 starters.
Wins, Pitcher (record, team)
13: Adam Wainwright (13-7, St. Louis); Justin Masterson (13-8, Cleveland)
12: Justin Verlander (12-8, Detroit); Felix Hernandez (12-5, Seattle)
11: Jhoulys Chacin (11-6, Colorado); Clayton Kershaw (11-7, LA Dodgers)
10: Jon Lester (10-7, Boston); C.C. Sabathia (10-10, N.Y. Yankees)
9: Ricky Nolasco (9-9, Miami/L.A. Dodgers); R.A. Dickey (9-11, Toronto)
8: Tim Hudson (8-7 Atlanta); Yovani Gallardo (8-9, Milwaukee); Edinson Volquez (8-10, Cincinnati); Chris Sale (8-11, Chicago White Sox); Bud Norris (8-9, Houston/Baltimore)
7: Matt Cain (7-8, San Francisco); Jason Hammel (7-8, Baltimore); James Shields (7-8 Kansas City); Jered Weaver (7-5, L.A. Angels)
6: Stephen Strasburg (6-9, Washington); Jeff Samardzija (6-11, Chicago Cubs); David Price (6-5, Tampa Bay)
5: Cole Hamels (5-13, Philadelphia); A.J. Burnett (5-8, Pittsburgh)
4: Jonathon Niese (4-6, N.Y. Mets); Johnny Cueto (4-2, Cincinnati); Ian Kennedy (4-8, Arizona/San Diego)
1: Vance Worley (1-5, Minnesota); Brett Anderson (1-4, Oakland)
0: Matt Harrison (0-2, Texas)
In addition:
* Of the 30 Opening Starters in 2013, only 13 have a record of .500 or better; seventeen have a record under .500.
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99 Stats Until Kickoff (#77) Super Bowl scoring… What’s the point?
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From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
In the 47-year history of the Super Bowl, there have been more games decided by 17 or more points (18 games) than by games decided by seven points or less (17 games). Last year’s Super Bowl, however, a three-point win for the Ravens over the 49ers, makes it now 11 of the 13 games in this century’s Super Bowls were decided by 14 points or less. In addition, five of the last six have been decided by six points or less.
Here’s a look at some other stats regarding the points scored in the Super Bowl (through the first quarter, at halftime, and final score):
FINAL SCORE
* No team that scored less than 14 points in the Super Bowl has won the game. Teams with 13 or fewer points are 0-17.
* Teams that scored under 24 points are 13-40 (.245 winning percentage); teams that scored 24 or more points in the game are 34-7 (.829 winning percentage).
* Teams that scored 30-plus points in the Super Bowl are 24-2. The only two teams to score 30 or more points in a Super Bowl and lose: Dallas in Super Bowl 13 when they lost 35-31 to Pittsburgh, and the most recent Super Bowl with San Francisco putting 31 points on the scoreboard in their loss to Baltimore.
* Teams that scored under 20 points in the Super Bowl are 5-34 (.128 winning percentage). Teams that scored 20 points or more in the big game are 42-13 (.764 winning percentage).
FIRST QUARTER
* Teams that held their opponent scoreless in the first quarter of the Super Bowl won 24 and lost 12 (.667 winning percentage).
* Teams that held their opponents to only three points or less in the first quarter were 34-22 (.607 winning percentage).
* Teams that scored 13 or more points in the first quarter were 7-2 in the Super Bowl.
HALFTIME
* Teams that were scoreless at halftime have never won a Super Bowl game (teams are 0-11).
* Teams that had three points or less at halftime were 3-20 (.130 winning percentage) in the game. The three teams that won Super Bowls after being held to three or fewer points at half: 1974 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1988 San Francisco 49ers and 2007 New York Giants.
* Teams that have scored 16 or more points at halftime were 22-2 in Super Bowls (.917 winning percentage). The two teams that lost the Super Bowl even though they had scored 16-plus points by half: The 1982 Miami Dolphins (they had 17 points at half and lost to Washington 27-17); and the 1984 Dolphins (they had 16 points at half and were held scoreless in the second half in their 38-16 loss to San Francisco).
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#72) 15 regular season stats that impact the Super Bowl winner
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From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
Looking for a sure thing when it comes to picking the winner of the Super Bowl? I wish I had some magical formula I could give you (or use myself), but there just doesn’t seem to be such a thing out there.
I can, however, give you a look at some stats that may help you when it comes time to choose the team that will win the Super Bowl. I’ve looked at 15 regular season stats from the past 47 Super Bowl champions. In some cases, there is a strong case for a particular team winning based on how they performed in the regular season. In other cases, the regular season stats don’t reveal much.
Following are 15 regular season stats that may help determine who will win the next Super Bowl.
1. Wins. Thirty-nine of the 47 Super Bowl champs won 11 or more games in the regular season. (The Ravens won last year’s Super Bowl with 10 regular-season wins) Only three times in Super Bowl history did a team with less than 10 regular season victories win the Super Bowl: The first two were in 1967, when the Packers were 9-4-1, and 1982 when the 8-1 Washington Redskins won the title in that strike-shortened season. In case you don’t remember, the 2011 champion New York Giants became the third team in this stat when they defeated the New England Patriots. The Giants only had nine regular-season wins in 2011; they became the first team with less than 10 wins from a 16-game NFL season to ever win a Super Bowl.
2. Turnover Ratio. Forty-one of the 47 Super Bowl champs had a positive turnover ratio; 21 of the 47 had a +10 or more turnover ratio in the regular season. Both teams in last year’s Super Bowl had a regular-season turnover ratio of +9.
3. Offensive rank by points. Forty of the 47 were in the Top 10 in offense based on points. Baltimore ranked 10th in this category last season and became the 40th team in this stat.
4. Offensive rank based on yards. Thirty-six of the 47 were in the Top 10 in offense based on total yards. Both of last year’s teams ranked outside the Top 10; the 49ers were 11th, the Ravens were 16th.
5. Defensive Rank by Points. Thirty-five of the 47 were in the Top 10 in defense based on points. The lowest ranked defense (by points) to win a Super Bowl were the 2011 Giants, who were ranked 25th that year on their way to a title. The Ravens were ranked 12th in this category in 2012.
6. Defensive rank based on yards. Thirty-eight of the 47 ranked in the Top 10 in defense based on total yards allowed. The Giants in 2011 established a new “low” in this stat as they won the Super Bowl with a “D” that was ranked 27th in yards allowed. The Ravens were ranked 17th in this category last season.
7. Offensive yards per play. Thirty-eight of the 47 Super Bowl champs averaged 5.0 or more yards per play during the regular season. Twenty-two of the 47 averaged 5.5 or more yards per play. This past year in the regular season Baltimore was at 5.4 yards per play
8. Three-game losing streak. Only five teams that lost three straight games during the regular season went on to win a Super Bowl that year: Baltimore in 2000, Pittsburgh in 2005, New Orleans in 2009 and the Giants last year. The Ravens did lose three straight in 2012 and became the fifth team in this category. Three of the last four Super Bowl champs lost three straight regular-season games in the year they won the Super Bowl.
9. Winning streak to start season. Thirteen of the 47 won five straight games to start the season; 22 won three straight games to start the season; 30 of the 47 won their first two games. Baltimore in 2012 won their season-opener, but lost the following week.
10. Away wins. Forty-six of the 47 won four or more games on the road in the regular season. The 2011 Green Bay Packers are the only team to win a Super Bowl and win three or fewer games on the road that regular season. Thirty-six of the 47 lost none, one or two away games during the regular season of their Super Bowl year. Baltimore went 4-4 in away games last season.
11. 1,000-yard rusher. Twenty-eight of the 47 had a 1,000-yard rusher during the regular season. Both teams in last year’s Super Bowl had a 1,000-yard rusher in the 2012 season.
12. 1,000-yard receiver. Twenty-five of the 47 had a 1,000-yard receiver during the regular season. The Ravens did not have a 1,000-yard receiver in 2012.
13. More passing TDs than running TDs. Thirty-four of the 47 had more passing TDs than running TDs for the regular season. The last time a team that had more rushing TDs than passing in the regular season won a Super Bowl were the 1995 Dallas Cowboys.
14. Losses by eight points or less. Forty of the 47 lost half or more of their defeats by one score (eight points or less). Baltimore lost six games in 2012, four of them by one score.
15. Point differential rank. Thirty-eight of the 47 ranked in the Top 3 in point differential in the regular season. Only three teams have ranked outside the Top 10 in point differential and won the Super Bowl: the New York Giants of 2007 ranked 13th in point differential when they won the Super Bowl later that year; last year the Giants ranked 17th in point differential in the regular season and won last
year’s championship; this past year’s Super Bowl champs, the Ravens, ranked 11th in this category in the 2012 regular season.
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#45) Can NFL teams win by scoring less than 10 points in a game?
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From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
Since the beginning of the 1970 NFL season (the merger between the NFL and AFL) there have been 128 occasions when a team has won a game by scoring less than 10 points. In the 2012 season, it has happened three times: Baltimore defeated Kansas City 9-6 on October 7; the Browns with a one-point win over the Chargers, 7-6, on October 28; and on December 2 when the New York Jets edged the Arizona Cardinals 7-6.
Following are the number of games each NFL team has won since 1970 when they scored less than 10 points.
10 games: Buffalo, Indianapolis
8 games: Cleveland, Pittsburgh
7 games: Oakland
6 games: Chicago, Denver, New England, Tennessee
5 games: Dallas, New York Jets
4 games: Atlanta, Green Bay, Miami, Minnesota, San Francisco
3 games: Detroit, Jacksonville, New Orleans, New York Giants, Tampa Bay, Washington
2 games: Arizona, Baltimore, Kansas City, Seattle, St. Louis
1 game: Carolina, Philadelphia, San Diego
0 games: Cincinnati, Houston
There have been three games in the playoffs won by teams that scored less than 10 points:
December 26, 1970: Dallas over Detroit, 5-0
January 6, 1980: Los Angeles Rams over Tampa Bay, 9-0 (NFC Championship Game)
January 3, 1998: Pittsburgh over New England, 7-6
One final note: Of the teams that have won a game with less than 10 points, the team that has waited the longest for their next win with 10 or fewer points is the St. Louis Rams franchise. The Rams have not won a game by scoring less than 10 points since that NFC Championship Game in 1980 when they defeated the Bucs, 9-0.
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