After being swept by the Chicago Cubs in a four-game series this past weekend, we have to ask:
Are the Cubs the Brewers “kryptonite”?
In fact, if we add the St. Louis Cardinals to the discussion, you can make a good case that if the Brew Crew wants to make a serious charge at a playoff spot this season, they better figure out a way to beat these two division opponents.
Let’s go back to 2016. Since then, the Brewers are 38-52 against the Cubs and Cardinals, a winning percentage of .422. From the 2016 season through games of April 29, 2018, the Brewers are 18-28 versus the Cubs (.391 winning percentage) and 20-24 (.455) versus the Cards.
Compare that to all other teams since 2016… the Brewers are 137-126 (.521) since 2016 in games against all other MLB teams other than the Cubs and Cards. That’s a difference of about 100 percentage points (99 to be exact)… .422 versus the Cubs and Cards and .521 against all other teams.
This season is no different. MLB standings show the Brewers at 16-13 this season. Ten of their 13 losses this year have come to the Cubs or Cards (1-7 versus the Cubs, 3-3 versus the Cards). That’s 4-10 versus the Cubs and Cards (.286 winning percentage) and 12-3 (.800) versus the rest of the league.
Any way you look at it, it’s a disturbing trend that the Brewers will need to figure out if they hope to challenge for a post-season spot in 2018.
Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp
This year’s ALCS and NLCS teams are now set… the Astros will face off against the Yankees tonight in the ALCS and the Cubs and Dodgers will play Game One on Saturday in the NLCS.
In the ALCS, the Yankees will be making their 16th ALCS appearance, most in the league since baseball went to the Championship Series format in 1969, while the Astros will be making their first-ever ALCS appearance. The Astros are the last of the 15 current A.L. franchises to play in an ALCS. Oakland (11 ALCS appearances) are second to the Yankees in most ALCS played.
In the NLCS, the Cubs will be making their third straight and fifth NLCS appearance. The Dodgers will be playing in the NLCS for the 12th time, second to the St. Louis Cardinals who have played in 13 NLCS.
The Cubs have added White Sox ace Jose Quintana to their pitching staff via a trade. With this acquisition, the defending champs are certainly not sitting still in their attempt to overtake the Milwaukee Brewers in the N.L. Central and hopefully make a return trip to the World Series. History (and stats), however, has shown that winning the N.L. Central and getting back to the World Series might take a historic second half for the Cubs.
The Cubs are 43-45 (a .489 winning percentage) at the All-Star break. Since 1913, only four teams that were .500 or worse at the All-Star break played in the World Series that season. The five teams: 1914 Boston Braves (they had a winning percentage of .434 at the All-Star break when they made the World Series that year), the 1973 Mets (.452), the 1964 Cardinals (.494), the 1991 Braves (.494) and most recently, the 2007 Colorado Rockies, who were at .500 at the All-Star break and then made it to the World Series that year. Of these five teams, only the 1914 Braves and ’64 Cardinals actually won the title that season.
Since 2000, only four teams with a winning percentage under .500 at the All-Star break were able to win their division that season… the 2013 Twins (.473), the 2015 Rangers (.477), the 2008 Dodgers (.484) and the 2015 Blue jays (.495).
The second half of the 2017 MLB season begins tomorrow. Based on past history, that may be good news for the Chicago Cubs and bad news for the Milwaukee Brewers.
In the last three seasons, the Cubs have had the best cumulative record over the second half of the season. They were 133-83 (.616 winning percentage) after the All-Star break from 2014-16. The Brewers, the team ahead of the Cubs in the standings, on the other hand, were .94-119 (.441 winning percentage) after the All-Star break from 2014-16. That ranked 24th of the 30 MLB teams.
The N.L. West-leading Dodgers, who have the majors best record this season, had the second best record after the break the last three seasons… they were 121-87 (.582).
Of the other four teams currently leading their division, the Washington Nationals ranked fifth in second half winning percentage the last three years, the Cleveland Indians ranked sixth, the Red Sox ranked 15th, and the Houston Astros ranked 17th.
With pitchers and catchers reporting this week, the start of baseball in 2017 is upon us. Here’s just a small taste of some baseball analytics to get you ready for the upcoming season.
Two interesting elements of the Chicago Cubs success last season was their dominance at home (57-24) and a 15-5 record in interleague play. Let’s, however, focus on their winning ways at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs last year became the 36th team in MLB history to win 57 or more games at home in a season. They were the first team to reach 57 wins at home since the 2011 Milwaukee Brewers won 57 games at Miller Park that season.
Of the 36 teams that have reached 57 or more wins at home in a season, 23 went on to play in the World Series that year with 12 winning the championship (the Cubs became the 12th team to do so.) That means that 13 of the 36 did not reach the World Series in the season they won 57 or more games at home. The aforementioned 2011 Brewers were the last team to fail to reach the World Series in a season where they won 57 or more games at home..
Here’s a look at the 12 teams to win the World Series in the same year they won 57+ games at home.
Year, Team, Home Wins in that title season
2016 Chicago Cubs, 57
2009 New York Yankees, 57
1998 New York Yankees, 62
1975 Cincinnati Reds, 64
1970 Baltimore Orioles, 59
1961 New York Yankees, 65
1942 St. Louis Cardinals, 60
1937 New York Yankees, 57
1932 New York Yankees, 62
1930 Philadelphia A’s, 58
1929 Philadelphia A’s, 57
1927 New York Yankees, 57
The 1961 Yanks top the list with most wins at home in a season, 65. The ’75 Big Red Machine is next with 64 wins at home. Ten of the 12 teams that won 60 or more games at home in a season eventually made it to the World Series that year with only five winning that crown that year (1932 Yankees, 1942 Cardinals, 1961 Yankees, 1975 Reds and the 1998 Yankees).
Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp