Packers vs. Cowboys: Weather stats
It appears that weather will be a factor in Sunday’s playoff game between the Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys. Projected temperatures for Green Bay are for the high teens, possibly with a high of 18 degrees around game time.
How might that affect the Packers-Cowboys contest? Here’s a few stats that will shed some light on who has the “statistical” weather advantage.
- Since 2000, the Packers are 26-9-1 (.736 winning percentage) in regular season games played outdoors with the temperature under 32 degrees. That .736 winning percentage is third in the league; Houston is a perfect 3-0 in such games, and the New England Patriots are 15-5 (.750) in regular season games played outdoors with the temperature under 32 degrees since 2000. The Pack is 25-4-1 (.850) in these games at home and 1-5 (.167) on the road.
- The Cowboys are 1-5 in games outdoors with a temperature of under 32 degrees since 2000.
- Green Bay is 6-6 in playoff games played outdoors with temperatures under 32 degrees since 2000; the Cowboys did not play a post-season game outdoors in weather under 32 degrees from 2000-2014.
- The Packers were 29-9-1 in all home games (regular season and playoffs) played outdoors in temperatures under 32 degrees from 2000-2014; 3-6 in road games; and 32-15-1 in all games
- Let’s look at games (regular season and playoffs) played outdoors in temperatures under 20 degrees. From 1966-2014, the Packers are 21-18-1 in such games, while the Cowboys are 1-3.
- The Packers played the most regular season games outdoors with temperatures under 32 degrees since 2000 with 33 and the most playoff games in those conditions with 12.
- Green Bay has played the most games (regular season and playoffs) outdoors with temperatures under 20 degrees since 1966 with 40. Chicago (25), Minnesota (23) and Denver (21) are the only other teams to have played over 20 such games during this timeframe.
Advantage Packers? It certainly seems that way.
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Can the Cowboys finish 2014 undefeated on the road?
There’s a lot to celebrate in Dallas: An NFC East Division championship and an upcoming home playoff game. This Sunday the Cowboys are on the road facing the Washington Redskins. A victory in D.C. would not only finish their 2014 season, but it would signal a perfect 8-0 record on the road this season. And based on past history, an undefeated road record has been a good omen for the past 11 teams that reached that milestone.
Since 1966 (the start of the Super Bowl era), there have been 11 teams that were unbeaten on the road in a season. Of those 11, eight went on to play in the Super Bowl that year. Will the Cowboys become the 12th team to have an unblemished away record… and if they do, will that be enough to give them a spot in this year’s Super Bowl?
Here’s a look at the teams that were undefeated in road games in an NFL season (and how well they performed in the playoffs that season).
Team, Year (road record), playoffs that year
New England, 2007 (8-0) lost in the Super Bowl
St. Louis Rams, 2001 (8-0), lost in the Super Bowl
San Francisco, 1990 (8-0), lost in the NFC Championship Game
San Francisco, 1989 (8-0), won the Super Bowl
San Francisco, 1984 (8-0), won the Super Bowl
Washington, 1982* (5-0), won the Super Bowl
Miami, 1972, (7-0), won the Super Bowl
Baltimore Colts, 1968, (7-0) lost in the Super Bowl
Dallas, 1968, (7-0) lost in the first round
Los Angeles Rams, 1967, (6-0-1), lost in the first round
Kansas City, 1966, (7-0), lost in the Super Bowl
* Strike-shortened season
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New England Patriots look to increase double-digit wins streak
Will the Patriots get their 12th consecutive season with 10-plus wins?
Nineteen of the 32 NFL teams still have a mathematical chance of winning 10 or more games this season. Twelve of those teams are in the AFC while only seven still have a shot in the NFC.
The New England Patriots are one of the AFC teams with a great shot at 10 or more wins. In fact, the Pats already have nine wins and will likely get to the double-digit mark for the 12th straight season. Their current streak of 11 consecutive years with 10 or more wins is the second longest streak in NFL history. The longest streak belongs to the San Francisco 49efrs franchise. They had 10-plus wins in 16 straight seasons from 1983-98.
Here’s a look at the longest consecutive streaks of 10 or more win seasons in the NFL.
16: San Francisco 49ers (1983-98)
11: New England Patriots (2003-13)
9: Indianapolis Colts (2002-10)
7: Dallas Cowboys (1975-81)
6: Dallas Cowboys (1991-96); Dallas Cowboys (1968-73); Miami Dolphins (1970-75); Los Angeles Rams (1973-78)
5: Chicago Bears (1984-88); Philadelphia Eagles (2000-04); Philadelphia Eagles (1988-92); Pittsburgh Steelers (1972-76); Washington Redskins (1983-87)
Since 2000, 31 of the 32 teams have had at least one 10-win season. The only team without a 10-win season since the turn of the century is the Buffalo Bills. With a 7-5 record this season, the Bills need to win three of their last four games to finally reach the 10-win mark this century.
Leading the way with the most 10-win seasons since 2000 are the Patriots and Colts, each with 12 such seasons in the last 14 NFL campaigns. Following are the number of 10-win seasons for each NFL franchise since 2000.
12: Indianapolis, New England
9: Green Bay, Philadelphia
8: Baltimore, Pittsburgh
6: Denver, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants
5: Atlanta, Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle, Tennessee
4: Carolina, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Miami, Minnesota, N.Y. Jets, San Diego, Tampa Bay
3: Dallas, Oakland, St. Louis
2: Arizona, Houston, Jacksonville, Washington
1: Cleveland, Detroit
0: Buffalo
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Cowboys hoping ‘first team to 6 wins’ theory gives them inside track on Super Bowl this year
After Week #7 of the NFL, only one team stood alone with six wins: the Dallas Cowboys. Are they for real? Are they that good? Can they really turn their “stuck-in-mud” 8-8 records the last three seasons and really challenge for the Super Bowl this year?
If past history is any indicator, the answer is, “Yes.” In fact, as the first team to six wins this season, there is data to support that the Cowboys may be on their way to something special this season.
Let’s look at the past ten NFL seasons. The team(s) that were the first to six wins were very successful. (Note: If two teams reached six wins on the same day, both teams are included in this discussion). Consider this:
* The 12 teams that were the first (or tied for that honor) to win six games in a season won a combined 161 games, or an average of 13.4 per team. (Good news for the Cowboys who have not won more than eight games in a season since 2009 when they won 11.)
* Each of the 12 made the playoffs. (Again, good news for the ‘Boys who last played in the playoffs after that 2009 season.)
* Five went on to play in the Super Bowl. (Dallas last played in the Super Bowl in January, 1996, an almost 20-year drought.)
* Two teams lost in the conference championship games, meaning that seven of the 12 make it to their conference title game that season.
* The fewest wins of these 12 teams were the Kansas Chiefs last season with 11 wins.
Here’s a look at the regular season record and playoff success of those teams that were the first to win six games in a season in the last 10 NFL seasons.
2004: Philadelphia (finished 13-3; lost in the Super Bowl); New England (finished 14-2; won the Super Bowl)
2005: Indianapolis (finished 14-2; lost in the AFC Divisional round)
2006: Chicago (finished 13-3; lost in the Super Bowl)
2007: New England (finished 16-0; lost in the Super Bowl)
2008: Tennessee (finished 13-3; lost in the AFC Divisional round)
2009: Minnesota (finished 12-4; lost in the NFC Championship Game)
2010: New England (finished 14-2; lost in the AFC Divisional round)
2011: Green Bay (finished 15-1; lost in the NFC Divisional round)
2012: Atlanta (finished 13-3; lost in the NFC Championship Game)
2013: Kansas City (finished 11-5; lost in the AFC Wild Card game); Denver (finished 13-3; lost in the Super Bowl)
Will the Cowboys win more than eight games this season? Will they get back to the playoffs? Could they possibly represent the NFC in the Super Bowl? All good questions. As the first team to six wins this year, things are looking good for a Dallas run late into the 2014 playoffs. Time will tell.
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Washington Redskins are the new standard for 3-TD running backs
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Darrel Young had three rushing touchdowns for the Washington Redskins in their 30-24 overtime win over the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. It was the second time this season that the Redskins had a running back score three rushing TDs in a game (Roy Helu did it earlier in the year versus the Bears).
In fact, of the last five times that an NFL running back scored three or more TDs’ via the run in a game, the Redskins have done it three times… with three different running backs. Washington feature back Alfred Morris had three rushing scores in a 28-18 win over the Dallas Cowboys last season in the regular-season finale.
If we go back to 1970, there have been 362 times when a running back had three or more TDs via runs. Teams are 324-38 in those games, a .895 winning percentage. But for the Redskins, having a running back score three-plus TDs via runs has been a golden path to success. The Redskins have had 20 such games since 1970 and have won all 20!
For Young, Morris and Helu, it was the first career game for each with three rushing touchdowns. That’s 11 games fewer than the player who has the most games with three-plus rushing TDs, LaDainian Tomlinson. His 12 games are three more than Priest Holmes and Emmitt Smith.
Here are the running backs with the most games with three or more rushing TDs since 1970.
12: LaDainian Tomlinson
9: Priest Holmes, Emmitt Smith
8: Marshall Faulk
6: Shaun Alexander, Marcus Allen, Earl Campbell, Joe Morris, Barry Sanders
5: Eric Dickerson, Edgerrin James, Walter Payton, Adrian Peterson
For Tomlinson, his team was a perfect 12-0 in those games when he had three or more rushing TDs.
One final note: The last player to score three or more rushing touchdowns in a loss was Chicago’s Matt Forte on October 20. If you haven’t guessed it already, that game was played against the Redskins.
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