14 stats the Packers need to improve to win the NFC title game
The Packers will venture out to California to play the San Francisco 49ers for the second time this season. Less than two months ago, on November 24, the Pack lost to the 49ers 38-9 in their Week #12 game. To advance to the Super Bowl, Green Bay will need to do a lot of things differently this time against San Francisco.
Here’s a look at 14 stats from the first meeting between the two teams and how the Packers will need to reverse those numbers.
- San Francisco had a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter. The Packers cannot let the 49ers get off to a quick start like they did last game. Green Bay only let two opponents score 10 or more points in the first quarter all season (SF and Detroit on 10/14); they were 1-1 in those two games. They were 3-2 in games when they did not score in the first quarter and 10-1 in games where they did score in the first quarter. They were also 3-2 in games this season when they were behind after one quarter.
- Aaron Rodgers had only 104 yards passing. The 104 yards passing was the lowest of the year for ARod. The second lowest was 161 yards passing against the Chargers, another loss for the Packers in 2019. Green Bay is 0-8 in Rodgers’ career when he has less than 155 yards passing in a game and 1-11 when he has less than 170 yards passing in a game.
- Green Bay gave up five sacks in the contest. The 49ers five sacks against the Pack was tied for the most against the Packers in 2019. Green Bay is 5-17 since 2010 in games when they allow five or more sacks. Conversely, they are 9-2 since 2010 in games when they do not allow a sack in the contest.
- The Packers did not have a takeaway in the game. Green Bay was 1-3 this season when they did not have a takeaway… 12-0 in games when they had at least one takeaway. Since 2010, they are 6-26 in games when they do not have a takeaway… 96-30-2 since 2010 when they get at least one takeaway in a game.
- The Pack was 1-for-15 in third down attempts in the game. A third down conversion rate of 6.7% will not cut it in this game. The 1-for-15 on third down was the worst of the season for Green Bay. The Packers are 67-22 since 2010 in regular season games when they convert 40% or higher of their third down attempts. Last week against Seattle, the Packers converted on 9-of-14 third downs for 64.3%. That was the third highest third down conversion for the Packers in their history in a playoff game.
- Aaron Jones had 13 carries for 38 yards, a 2.9 average. Jones ended the 2019 season with a 4.6 yards per carry average. Green Bay was 9-0 this season when Jones had a per carry average above 4.0 in a game. They were 4-3 when it was below four yards per carry in a game.
- Davante Adams had seven catches, but for only 43 yards. In two of the three losses the Packers had this year, Adams had under 50 yards receiving. Green Bay is 24-11-1 in Adams’ career when he scores a TD.
- Green Bay had the ball 11 times in the first game, but no drive in that game started past their own 35 yardline. Field position will be a key. They can’t start every drive in their own territory.
- They had eight drives in the first half and did not score. In five of their eight drives in the first half, the Packers were three-and-out. Their longest drive of the first half was eight plays and 3:47. They will need to sustain drives and get first downs. For the season, Green Bay scored on 19 or the 23 drives that went 10 plays or longer.
- San Francisco scored on seven of their 11 drives in the game. Four of those scores came on drives that lasted four plays or less.
- Final Score, 38-9. Green Bay ended the year going 12-1 in games where they scored 20 or more points in a game. They were 0-3 in games where they allowed the opposition to score 26 or more points in the game.
- San Francisco had 112 yards rushing. In the three games the Packers lost this season, the opponents had more than 100 yards rushing in each of those contests.
- The Packers longest pass completion in the game was 15 yards. Rodgers completed a pass to Jamaal Williams for 15 yards for the longest pass of the game. The longest pass to a wide receiver was 14 yards to Adams.
- The longest play from scrimmage in the game was a 21-yard run by AllenLazard. The 21-yard run by Lazard was the longest play for the Packers. Is it possible that more trick plays need to be in the game plan?
Keys for a Packers win?
- A trick play or two will help.
- Keep the game a one-score game at halftime
- Aaron Rodgers cannot throw an interception
- The “O” line has to keep Rodgers on his feet; no more than two sacks
- Sustain drives; a third down conversion rate above 40%
- The running backs need to break a couple of long runs
- Davante Adams has to have a big game
- Rodgers two TD passes and 200-plus yards passing would be great
- The “D” needs to get a takeaway (or two)
- Mason Crosby cannot miss
Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp
PACKERSTATS-Game #17-2019 season
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 28-23 home playoff win over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, January 12.
- The Packers upped their record to 5-0 this season in games when they scored 28 or more points. They also saw their record in 2019 go to 14-0 when they keep the opponents under 24 points in a game.
- Green Bay has now won three consecutive home playoff games. The last time they lost a home playoff game was on January 5, 2014, 23-20 to San Francisco.
- The Pack has won four of their last five games against Seattle. Four of their last six games against the Seahawks have been decided by eight points or less.
- The temperature was 23 degrees at game time. Green Bay is 16-6-1 (.717) in home games played below 25 degrees.
- Seattle won the coin toss. The Packers are 6-6 since 2001 in playoff games when they do not win the opening coin toss.
- Green Bay scored first in the game on an Aaron Rodgers-to-Davante Adams pass. They are now 16-8 (.667) in the Super Bowl era (since 1967) in playoff games when they score first in the contest.
- Aaron Jones had a pair of TD runs in the game giving him 21 total TDs for the season. That is one behind Ahman Green’s team record; he scored 22 total TDs in 2003 (regular season and playoffs).
- Preston and Za’Darius Smith became the second set of Packers teammates in team history to each have two or more sacks in a playoff game. Mike Neal (2 sacks) and Nick Perry (2.5 sacks) are the only other Packers pair to have two or more sacks in the same playoff game. They did it January 10, 2016 in the Pack’s 35-18 playoff win over Washington. Green Bay was 5-0 this season when Preston Smith had 1.5 or more sacks in a game; the Pack was 5-0 in 2019 when Za’Darious Smith had two or more sacks in a contest.
- Green Bay had a 21-3 lead at halftime. They have never lost a playoff game where they had a halftime lead of 18 or more points (5-0). The last time the Packers lost any game where they had a lead of 18 points or more at halftime was October 7, 2012 against the Indianapolis Colts. They lost that game 30-27. Ironically, they were leading that game 21-3 at halftime.
- Davante Adams had a pair of TD receptions in the game. It was Adams’ first two-TD playoff game. The Packers are 8-0 in regular season games when Adams has two or more TDs.
- Adams broke the Packers single-game playoff record for most receiving yards in a game. He had 160 yards receiving; one yard more than Jermichael Finley had in a January 10, 2010 playoff game against Arizona. Adams now has three playoff games with 100 or more receiving yards which ties him with Robert Brooks, Antonio Freeman and Greg Jennings for most 100-yard receiving games in the playoffs by a Packer player.
- Adams ended the game with eight catches, 160 receiving yards and two TD receptions. He became the 11th player in NFL playoff history to reach those numbers in a post-season game.
- Green Bay had a 28-17 lead going into the fourth quarter. The last time the Packers lost a game when they had a lead of 10 points or more going into the fourth quarter was October 10, 2010. They led 13-3 going into the fourth quarter of that game and lost the contest 16-13.
- For the 10th time this season, the Pack did not have a turnover in the game. They are 10-0 in those games.
- Aaron Rodgers had a Passer Rating of 113.7 in the game. Green Bay is 7-1 in playoff games when Rodgers has a PR of 100 or higher.
- Of the 17 playoff games that Rodgers has started, the 243 passing yards in yesterday’s game is the 5th lowest of those starts.
- Rodgers did not have an interception in the game. Green Bay is 9-1 in playoff games started by Rodgers when he does not throw an interception. In the eight playoff games where Rodgers has thrown one or more interceptions, Green Bay has a 2-6 record.
- Seattle scored 20 points in the second half. Green Bay is now 29-65-1 (.311) in the Super Bowl era in games when their opponents score 20 or more points in the second half.
- Green Bay converted 9-of-14 third down attempts in the game, 64.3%. That was the highest third down percentage rate in a game since November 28, 2016 when they converted 71.4 of third downs against the Eagles. Since the 2015 season, Green Bay is 17-3 in games when they convert 50% of more of their third down attempts.
- Green Bay has now won six straight games. The Kansas City Chiefs have the longest winning streak of the four teams remaining in the playoffs with seven. Both San Francisco and Tennessee have now won three straight contests.
PACKERSTATS-Game #4-2019 season
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 34-27 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on September 26.
- Green Bay is now 10-28 (.263) since 2010 in games where they allow the opponents to score 30 or more points in a game. They have lost 17 of their last 20 games when they allow 30 or more points.
- The Eagles tallied 176 yards rushing in the game. Green Bay is now 12-21-1 (.368) since 2010 in games where the opposition gains 170 or more yards rushing in a game; they have lost four of their last six games when the opponents rush for 170 or more yards in a game.
- The Packers had 491 total yards in the contest. Since 2008, when Aaron Rodgers took over as the starting QB, the Pack is 11-3-1 (.767) in games when they accumulate 475 or more total yards in a game.
- The Packers defense had no sacks and no takeaways in the game. It was the first time this has happened for the Packers “D” in a game since December 18, 2011. The Packers are now 2-8 since 2000 in games when they do not have a sack or a takeaway.
- Green Bay had a pair of turnovers in the game. They are 20-29 (.408) since 2010 in games where they have two or more turnovers.
- Davante Adams had 10 catches for 180 yards. It was the eighth time in his career that he had 10 or more catches in a game (the Packers are 4-4 in those games). The 180 yards receiving were a career high. Adams has five career games where he has had 133 or more yards receiving… the Packers have lost all five of those games.
- Aaron Rodgers had 46 yards rushing in the game, the sixth most in his career. In the 10 games where Rodgers has rushed for 43 or more yards, the Pack is 2-8.
- The 422 yards passing in the contest was the fifth most in Rodgers’ career. Green Bay is 5-3 in games when Rodgers passes for 400 or more yards. He attempted 53 passes, the fourth most in his career; the Packers are 2-6 in games when Rodgers throws 50 or more passes.
- Green Bay is now 12-7 (.632) in Thursday games since 2000.
- Since 2000, the Packers are now 22-15 (.595) versus the NFC East.
- With a win, the Packers would have been 4-0 for the first time since 2015.
- Green Bay won the coin toss; they are now 11-5 (.688) since 2015 in games where they won the coin toss at home.
- Green Bay is now 13-4-1 (.750) in September games since 2015… that is the third highest win percentage in September games since 2015 (New England is at .824, Kansas City is at .813). The Pack is 10-1-1 in home September games since 2015, again third best in the league. New England 9-1 (.900) and Minnesota 8-1 (.889) have the two best September home winning percentages since 2015.
- The Eagles scored 21 points in the second quarter. Green Bay is now 5-29 (.147) in their history when they allow the opponents to score 21 or more points in the second quarter of a game. Green Bay is 3-19 in these games since 1970.
- The Packers had 20 points at halftime (they were losing 21-20 at half). Scoring 20 or more points in the first half is usually good news for the Packers; they are now 58-8 (.879) since 2000 in games when they tally 20 or more points in the first half. They had won 30 straight games at Lambeau when they scored 20 or more points in the first half. They are now 41-3 (.932) since 2000 in games when they score 20 or more points in the first half of a home game.
- Carson Wentz had three TD passes for the Eagles in the game. The Pack is 15-17-1 since 2010 in games where an opposing QB has three or more TD passes.
- The game was tied 27-27 going into the fourth quarter. Green Bay is now 82-18-1 (.817) since 2000 in games where they are tied or have the lead going into the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field.
PACKERSTATS-Game #15-2018 season
Written and Compiled by Jerry Tapp
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 44-38 overtime win over the New York Jets on December 23.
- The Pack’s win over the Jets came in the 15th game of the season. The Packers are 18-7 (.720) in Game #15 games since 1994. That is the second-best winning percentage of all the NFL teams in Game #15 games. The New England Patriots are 19-6 (.760) in Game #15 games since ’94.
- Green Bay is now 5-8 (.385) in regular season games versus the Jets. They are one of four teams that the Packers have an all-time regular season winning percentage under .400; the others… Kansas City Chiefs (3-7-1 .318), Miami Dolphins (5-10 .333) and Buffalo Bills (5-8 .385). The victory on Sunday was only the second time in history that the Packers have defeated the Jets on their home field.
- With the win on the road, the Packers are now 7-23-1 since 1970 in road games against AFC East teams.
- Since 2000, the Packers are now 21-18 (.538) in all road games in December.
- The Jets scored first in the game. The Packers are 4-4 this season when their opponents score first in the game; they are 2-4-1 when they, the Packers, scored first in a 2018 contest.
- New York rookie QB Sam Darnold had a 128.4 Passer Rating in the game. It was the second highest ever Passer Rating by a rookie QB against the Packers; topping the list is a 149.6 Passer Rating by rookie QB Charlie Batch of the Detroit Lions on October 15, 1998.
- Darnold became the seventh rookie QB in history to have three TD passes in a game against the Packers. The Packers defense has given up three TD passes to a rookie QB in three straight seasons: 2016-Dak Prescott (Dallas); 2017-DeShone Kizer (Cleveland) and Darnold this season.
- Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers passed the 4,000 yards passing mark for the seventh season in his career. That places him in a tie for sixth in this stat with Detroit’s Matthew Stafford. The players ahead of Rodgers: Peyton Manning (14 4,000-yards passing seasons), Drew Brees (12), Tom Brady and Philip Rivers (10) and Matt Ryan (8).
- Jets returner Andre Roberts returned a kickoff for a TD. It was the first kickoff returned for TD against the Packers since Indianapolis returned a kickoff for TD on November 6, 2016. It’s interesting to note that the Packers have now won seven of their last eight games when an opposing player returns a kickoff for a TD.
- The Jets had a 21-17 lead at halftime. Since 2000, the Packers are now 9-27 (.250) in games when the opposition tallies 20 or more points in the first half. They are now 4-20 (.167) in road games since 2000 when their opponents score 20 or more points in the first half.
- Green bay running back Jamaal Williams had 15 carries for 95 yards in the game. The 95 yards rushing was the second-most in a game in his career. With six receptions for 61 yards, Williams had 156 total yards for the day… that was a career-high.
- Davante Adams had the game-winning TD reception. Adams turns 26 today (December 24) and has 39 career TD receptions. That is the 10th most TD receptions by a player prior to turning 26. Randy Moss tops the list with 60.
- Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby made all three of his field goal attempts. The Packers are 25-7 (.781) in games when Crosby is perfect in a game with at least three field goal attempts.
- Rodgers had a pair of TD runs in the game. It was only the second regular season game in his career that he scored two TDs (the other was October 2, 2011 against Denver).
- Rodgers two TD runs and a two-point conversion run tallied him 14 points in the game. That was the most points he scored in a game in his career. Paul Hornung holds the team record with 33 points scored in a game. Rodgers became the 42nd Packers player to score 14 or more points in a game since 1950.
- Jets QB Sam Darnold became the first rookie QB in history to have three TD passes, 300 or more yards passing and no interceptions in a game versus the Packers.
- Green Bay is 14-8 (.636) since 2000 in games where both teams score 30 or more points in a game.
- Rodgers had 442 yards passing in the game, tied for the second-most in his career. His career-high is 480 yards passing in a 2013 games versus the Redskins. Green Bay is 5-2 in the seven games where Rodgers has 400 or more yards passing.
- Davante Adams had 11 catches in the game, the third most in his career. Green Bay is 4-3 in games when Adams has 10 or more catches in a contest. Adams had 71 yards receiving in the game; the 71 yards receiving was the fewest he has had in a game where he had 9 or more catches.
- Green Bay scored 18 points in the fourth quarter. They are now 32-4 (.889) in games in their history when they score 18 or more points in the fourth quarter.
- The Pack had 20 running attempts in the game. They are now 20-11-1 (.641) since 2016 in games when they run the ball at least 20 times in a game. They are 5-3-1 in games this season when they have 20 or more rushing attempts, 1-5 when they have fewer than 20 rushing attempts in a game.
- Green Bay had 540 total yards in the game. They are now 22-2-1 (.900) in team history when they have 500 or more total yards in a game.
- For the first time in a game in team history, the Packers had five receivers gain 60 or more yards via catches. Equanimeous St. Brown led the way with 94 receiving yards. He was followed by Marques Valdes-Scantling (75), Davante Adams (71), Jake Kumerow (68) and Jamaal Williams (61).
- The game was the second-highest scoring overtime game in Green Bay history. The Pack lost an overtime game to the Falcons in Atlanta on November 27, 1983, 47-41, a combined 88 points.
- The 44-38 final score was the fifth time in NFL history that a game ended with that score. The last time was in 2012 when Carolina defeated New Orleans 44-38 on December 30.
Written and Compiled by Jerry Tapp
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 34-20 win over the Atlanta Falcons on December 9.
- It was 26 degrees at game time. Since 2010, the Packers are 17-5-1 (.761 winning percentage) in games where the temperature is below 32 degrees at game time.
- Green Bay is now 12-5 (.706) since 2000 against the NFC South.
- The Packers now have an 18-16 lead in the all-time series against the Falcons (that includes a 2-2 record in the playoffs). Since 2010, Green Bay has won five of the nine games versus Atlanta.
- The Packers won the coin toss and are now 30-7-1 (.803) in games at Lambeau Field since 2010 when they win the coin toss.
- Atlanta scored first in the game. The Pack is 11-21 (.344) since 2014 in games when the other team scores first.
- Atlanta’s Julio Jones had eight receptions for 108 yards. It was his third career game against the Packers where he had 100 or more yards receiving. He is the 12th player in history to have three or more 100-yard receiving games against Green Bay. Randy Moss tops the list with seven.
- Davante Adams had another TD reception in the game, his 10th game this year with a TD reception. With three games remaining, Adams has a shot at the Green Bay record which is 11 games with a TD reception. Jordy Nelson had a TD in 11 games in 2016; Sterling Sharpe had TD catches in 11 games in 1992 and 1994.
- Bashaud Breeland had a TD on an interception, the first “Pick-6” for the Packers since Damarious Randall on October 8, 2017. The Packers have now won 16 straight when they have a player score a TD on an interception.
- Mason Crosby had a pair of field goals in the game giving him 301 for his career. He became the 31st kicker in NFL history to reach 300 made field goals in a career. His 80.1% field goal percentage ranks 20th of the 31 kickers who have 300 or more career field goals made. Three other kickers who played for Green Bay are also on the list of those with 300 or more career field goals: Ryan Longwell, Al Del Greco and Jan Stenerud.
- The Packers had a 20-7 lead at halftime. They have now won 29 straight games when they score 20 or more points by halftime in home games. Since 2000, Green Bay is 40-2 (.952) in home games when they score 20 or more points in the first half.
- Aaron Rodgers had 44 yards rushing in the game. That’s the most yards rushing for ARod in a game this season and the most since he had 60 yards rushing in a game on October 30, 2016… also a game against the Falcons.
- Randall Cobb was on the receiving end of a Rodgers TD pass. It was the 33rd game that Cobb caught a TD pass; Green Bay is 23-10 (.697) in those games.
- Rodgers broke the NFL record for most passes without an interception with 358 pass attempts. To put that record in perspective, there have been 930 times when a QB has passed 358 or more times in an NFL season. The fewest interceptions by a QB with 358 or more pass attempts in a season are two by Tom Brady in 2016. Of those 930 QBs with 358 or more pass attempts in an NFL season, 806 of those QBs had at last 10 interceptions that season.
- Clay Matthews had a sack. Green Bay is 45-18-1 (.711) in games when Matthews has at least a half-sack or more in a contest.
- Green Bay had scored 34 points heading into the fourth quarter. They have won 94 of their last 98 games where they had 30 or more points on the scoreboard heading into the fourth quarter.
- Breeland became the 12th Packer since 2002 to have an interception and fumble recovery in the same game for the team.
- Aaron Jones had a rushing TD for the fifth straight game. He became the 110th player in NFL history to have a rushing TD in five straight games. Other Packers on the list: Paul Hornung (7 straight games), Ryan Grant and Terdell Middleton (six straight games each). The NFL record is 18 straight games with a rushing TD by LaDainian Tomlinson.
- Rodgers had two TD passes and no interceptions in the game. It was the 69th game in his career that he had at least two TD passes and no interceptions in a game. He is fifth in this stat in the league; Tom Brady has 100 games, Drew Brees 77, Brett Favre 74 and Peyton Manning 73. Green Bay is 59-10 (.855) in games when Rodgers has two or more TD passes with no interceptions in a game.
- The Pack has now won 15 straight at home when they tally 30 or more points in a game. The team is 57-3 (.950) since 2000 at home when they reach the 30 point mark.
- Green Bay had zero turnovers. They are 38-4-2 (.886) at home since 2000 when they do not have a turnover in the game.