Today’s Sports Stat: March 17, 2018
Now that the Philadelphia Eagles have won their first Super Bowl, when will they win their second one? Could they go back-to-back? Or, will they sit on one Super Bowl victory for many years?
Let’s take a look with a little historical perspective to try to explore the above questions. First, the Eagles, by winning Super Bowl #52, became the 20th NFL franchise (of the 32) to win a Super Bowl. Of those 20, 12 have won two or more Super Bowls and eight have won just one. That means that 12 of the current franchises have never won a Super Bowl; of those 12, four have never even made it to the Super Bowl… Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Jacksonville.
Of the 12 franchises that have won two or more Super Bowls, let’s focus on when they won their first Super Bowl and when they won their second:
- Four teams won their first and second Super Bowls in back-to-back years… Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Denver and Miami.
- Five teams won their first and second Super Bowls within six years of each other… New England (two years), San Francisco (three years), New York Giants (four years), the Raiders (four years), Washington (five years), Dallas (six years).
- Two teams won their first and second Super Bowls more than 10 years from each other… Colts (36 years), Ravens (12 years).
It was mentioned above that the Eagles are now one of eight franchises that has won one Super Bowl. Here’s a look at when the other seven franchises won their one and only Super Bowl.
New York Jets (won Super Bowl #3)
Kansas City Chiefs (won Super Bowl #4)
Chicago (won Super Bowl #20)
Rams (won Super Bowl #34)
Tampa Bay (won Super Bowl #37)
New Orleans (won Super Bowl #44)
Seattle (won Super Bowl #48)
What does all this mean? The 12 teams that have won multiple Super Bowls won their first and second Super Bowls within an average of about six years. Take away the Rams 36-year wait for their second Super Bowl title and the average wait for Super Bowl win #2 averages just over three years.
The Eagles could, however, go the route of the Jets and Chiefs and spend nearly a half-century waiting for their second Super Bowl crown.
When will the Eagles win (or will they ever win) their second Super Bowl? There is no secret formula we can plug in. As someone once said, “That’s why they play the games.”
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Regular season losses help determine the Super Bowl winner?
This year’s Super Bowl will feature the Carolina Panthers, who lost one game this season, and the Denver Broncos, who lost four games in 2015. The three-loss difference is the 12th time in the 50 years of the Super Bowl that one team had three or more regular season losses than their Super Bowl opponent.
The greatest loss difference in Super Bowl history was in 2008 when the undefeated Patriots faced off against the six-loss Giants. Twice there was a four-loss difference between the Super Bowl teams: 2012 (New England, three losses versus vs. the Giants, seven losses) and in 1986 (one-loss Bears versus the five-loss Patriots).
Here’s a look at the 12 times there was a three-loss (or greater) difference in Super Bowl opponents (the team that won the Super Bowl that year is noted in bold).
2016: Carolina (1 loss) vs. Denver (4 losses)
2012: New England (3 losses) vs. New York Giants (7 losses)
2009: Pittsburgh (4 losses) vs. Arizona (7 losses)
2008: New England (0 losses) vs. New York Giants (6 losses)
2004: New England (2 losses) vs. Carolina (5 losses)
2002: St. Louis (2 losses) vs. New England (5 losses)
1990: San Francisco (2 losses) vs. Denver (5 losses)
1987: New York Giants (2 losses) vs. Denver (5 losses)
1986: Chicago (1 loss) vs. New England (5 losses)
1980: Pittsburgh (4 losses) vs. Los Angeles Rams (7 losses)
1973: Miami (0 losses) vs. Washington (3 losses)
1968: Oakland (1 loss) vs. Green Bay (4 losses)
In 12 of the 50 Super Bowls we have had two teams that had the same number of losses in the regular season; in the other 38 games one team had fewer losses than the other.
In the previous 10 Super Bowls prior to this year’s game, there have been eight times when one team has more regular season losses than their Super Bowl opponent (in the last two Super Bowls, in 2014 and 2015, the two teams had the same number of losses). That team has won seven times. That’s a good omen for the Broncos for this year’s game, although in the 37 Super Bowls where one team had more losses than their opponent, those teams were 15-22 in the big game (they were 8-21 from 1968 to 2005, 7-1 from 2006-13).
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Conference Championship Game: Blow-out or nail-biter?
The path to Super Bowl 50 was very different for the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos, especially if you focus on the games that punched their tickets to this year’s Super Bowl.
The Panthers put a beat-down on the Arizona Cardinals, defeating them 49-15 in the NFC title game. The Broncos stopped a two-point conversion late in the game to preserve a 20-18 win over the defending champs, New England. So, we have a team that won by 34 taking on a team that won by two in the conference championship game in this year’s Super Bowl. Which team has the advantage?
Let’s take a look at previous conference championship games. First, let’s look at those conference title games that had a margin of victory more than 30 points. It has now happened eight times including Carolina’s win this year. Of the previous seven games where one of the Super Bowl teams won their previous game by 30-plus points, only two of those seven teams won the Super Bowl that year.
Here’s a look at those seven games.
1967: Oakland over Houston 40-7 (33-point margin)… lost in the Super Bowl
1968: Baltimore over Cleveland 34-0 (34-point margin)… lost in the Super Bowl
1975: Dallas over Rams 37-7 (30-point margin)… lost in Super Bowl
1990: Buffalo over Raiders 51-3 (48-point margin)… lost in the Super Bowl
1991: Washington over Detroit 41-10 (31-point margin)… won Super Bowl
2000: New York Giants over Minnesota 41-0 (41-point margin)… lost in the Super Bowl
2014: New England over Indianapolis 45-7 (38-point margin)… won Super Bowl
2015: Carolina over Arizona (49-15 (34-point margin)… ?
Let’s now look at the conference title games that were decided by only a couple of points. In fact, Denver’s 20-18, two-point win over New England in the AFC Championship Game was only the third time since 1966 (the Super Bowel era) that a conference title game was decided by two or fewer points. Of those two occasions, both teams went on to win the Super Bowl.
Here’s a look at those two games.
1981: San Francisco over Dallas 28-27 (one-point margin)… won Super Bowl
1990: New York Giants over San Francisco (two-point margin)… won Super Bowl
2015: Denver over New England 20-18 (two-point margin)… ?
It certainly appears that Denver may have the advantage based on the history of conference championship game blowouts vs. nail-biters. We’ll see if history remains true to form.
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Down 24 points at half at home: Patriots win!
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
I’ll be the first to admit that I went to bed after watching the Denver Broncos take a 24-0 into the locker room at halftime in their November 24, 2013 game against the New England Patriots. Imagine my surprise (and that of others who also turned off the game after the first two quarters) when I opened the newspaper the next day to read about New England‘s overtime win over Denver.
The Patriots not only found themselves in a heap of trouble after the first half, but what also didn’t help was that it was a home game. When they won the game, it was only the seventh time in NFL history that a home team won a game after being behind by 20 points or more at half. It was also the second greatest deficit overcome at halftime by a home team in league history. In addition, this was not the first time that a New England team had overcome a 20-point deficit at home at half and gone on to win the game (more on that in a moment).
The Patriots-Denver contest was the fourth this season where a home team was behind by 20 points or more at half. Prior to the Patriots comeback, the Jaguars, Colts and Falcons could not erase their large halftime deficits at home and eventually lost those games.
The last time a home team won a game after being behind by 20-plus points at half was on November 26, 2006 when the home team Tennessee Titans were behind 21-0 to the New York Giants after two quarters of play. The Titans scored 24 unanswered points in the second half to win that game.
Here’s a look at the seven home teams that were behind by 20 or more points at half and went on to win that contest.
Nov. 24, 2013: Denver @ New England (New England down by 24 points at half) Patriots won 34-31
Nov. 26, 2006: New York Giants @ Tennessee (Tennessee down by 21 points at half) Titans won 24-21
Sept. 19, 1999: Indianapolis @ New England (New England down by 21 points at half) Patriots won 31-28
Dec. 24, 1995: Minnesota @ Cincinnati (Cincinnati down by 21 points at half) Bengals won 27-24
Sept. 12, 1982: L.A. Rams @ Green Bay (Green Bay down by 23 at half) Packers won 35-23
Dec. 7, 1980: New Orleans @ San Francisco (San Francisco down by 28 at half) 49ers won 38-35
Nov. 30, 1958: San Francisco @ Baltimore (Baltimore down by 20 at half) Colts won 35-27
Prior to the game against the Broncos on November 24, the Patriots had not been behind by 20 points or more at home at halftime since 1999. The Steelers now have the longest gap between such games; they have not been behind by 20-plus points at halftime in a home game since 2000.
Following is the last year each NFL team played a game where they were behind at halftime by 20-plus points at home.
2000: Pittsburgh
2002: Cincinnati
2004: San Francisco
2005: Philadelphia
2006: Green Bay, New Orleans
2007: Baltimore, Minnesota
2008: Detroit
2009: New York Giants, Oakland
2010: Arizona, Buffalo, Chicago, Seattle, Washington
2011: Cleveland, Denver, Houston, Tampa Bay
2012: Carolina, Dallas, Kansas City, Miami, New York Jets, San Diego, St. Louis, Tennessee
2013: Atlanta, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, New England
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Seahawks win second OT game this season
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Week #9 of the 2013 NFL season saw a pair of overtime games. The Seattle Seahawks won their second OT game of the year by defeating the Tampa Bay Bucs, and the Washington Redskins beat San Diego in overtime.
There have been seven overtime games this season with the home team winning five of those games. Last season there were 21 OT games with the home teams winning 11 and losing 10.
Cincinnati, Houston and Seattle have each played in two overtime games this year; the Texans and Bengals have each won one and lost one, while the Seahawks have won both of their OT games.
Going back to 2000, there have been 216 regular-season overtime games in the NFL. The San Francisco 49ers have played in the most games with 20, while the New England Patriots and New York Giants are tied for the best record in OT games since 2000 with a .692 winning percentage (each team is 9-4 in overtime).
Here’s a look at each NFL team’s record in overtime games since 2000.
New England: 9-4 .692
New York Giants: 9-4 .692
Chicago: 10-5 .667
Indianapolis: 4-2 .667
St. Louis: 8-4-1 .654
Arizona: 11-6 .647
Washington: 11-6 .647
San Francisco: 12-7-1 .625
Denver: 10-6 .625
Baltimore: 8-6 .571
New York Jets: 10-8 .556
Jacksonville: 6-5 .545
New Orleans: 6-5 .545
Oakland: 6-5 .545
Seattle: 7-6 .538
Dallas: 9-8 .529
Buffalo: 7-7 .500
Tennessee: 7-7 .500
Green Bay 5-5 .500
Pittsburgh: 8-10-1 .447
Cincinnati: 3-5-1 .389
Detroit: 5-8 .385
Atlanta: 6-10-1 .382
Tampa Bay: 6-10 .375
Minnesota: 4-7 .364
Kansas City: 6-11 .353
Philadelphia: 3-6-1 .350
San Diego: 5-10 .333
Houston: 4-8 .333
Miami: 4-8 .333
Cleveland: 4-9 .308
Carolina: 3-8 .273
Note: The Denver Broncos and New York Giants have the longest active streak of OT wins with five each. Oakland has won four straight overtime games. The Carolina Panthers have lost five straight OT games, the longest active losing streak. Jacksonville, Green Bay and San Diego have each lost four straight overtime games.
Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp
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