Does it matter if an NFL team is the only team in their division to win 10 or more games? Does it matter if a team wins a divisional title by five or more games? If a team is one of three in their division to win 10 or more games, do they have a better chance to reach the Super Bowl? Do teams that win their division by one game or less (or tie for the divisional title) have a better chance of winning the Super Bowl than say a team that wins their division by five or more games?
Let’s try to answer these questions. Back in 2002, the NFL went to a four-division format in each conference. That gives us 11 years of past history to analyze divisional races and how they affect the Super Bowl teams (and winners). The following stats reflect the past 11 NFL seasons, 88 different divisional races.
1. In 43 of the 88 divisional races since 20002, the race ended with only one team in the division winning 10 games or more. In 33 races, two teams in the division won 10-plus games; in nine races, none of the teams win 10-plus games; and in three races, three different teams won 10 or more games.
2. Of the 22 teams that played in the Super Bowl since 2002, exactly half (11) came from a division that had only one team with 10-plus wins; nine of the 22 came from a division with two 10-plus win teams. Two teams came from a conference that had no team winning 10 or more games. Since 2002, none of the three divisions that had three teams with 10-plus wins has made it to the Super Bowl.
3. Seven of the 11 Super Bowl champs since 2002 came from a division with two teams with 10 or more wins.
4. Fifty-six of the 88 division races since 2002 (63.6 percent) finished in a tie or the first place team won the division by two games or less over the second place team. Eighteen teams since 2002 won their division by five games or more over the runner-up.
5. The last three Super Bowl champs came from divisions that were decided by one game or less.
6. Teams that won their division by one game or less are 5-2 in the Super Bowl since 2002. Teams that won their division by 1.5 to four games are 6-3 in the Super Bowl. Teams that won their division by five or more games are 0-6 in the Super Bowl in the last 11 years.
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Sunday with a bonus “SIX STATS…” published every Friday.
Five teams that made the playoffs this season had a quick exit from the postseason. Atlanta, Cincinnati, Detroit, Green Bay and Pittsburgh each played only one game in the playoffs this season because they lost their first playoff game… a “one and out” experience.
Here’s a look at the teams/franchises that have had the most “one and out” in the NFL playoffs during the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
Playoff seasons with ‘One & Out”
12 Dallas, Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts, Minnesota
11 Kansas City
10 Miami, Tennessee/Houston Oilers
9 Detroit, St. Louis/Los Angeles Rams
8 Cleveland, Denver, New England, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh
7 Buffalo, Chicago, Cincinnati
6 Atlanta, Green Bay, New York Giants, New York Jets, San Francisco, Tampa Bay
5 New Orleans, San Diego, Seattle, Washington
3 Arizona/St. Louis Cardinals, Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders
2 Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville
0 Houston Texans
Did you know? Three NFL franchises experienced three straight “One & Out” postseasons. Detroit went one and out in the playoffs in 1993, 1994 and 1995; the Baltimore Colts went one and out in 1975, 1976 and 1977; and Philadelphia went one and out in 1988, 1989 and 1990.
Did you know… Part Two? The Indianapolis Colts have the most “one and out” appearances in the NFL playoffs since 2000. The Colts have been one and out six times since 2000. The Green Bay Packers, New York Giants and Tampa Bay Bucs have each been one and out four times since 2000.
Did you know… Part Three? Nine teams have been “one and out” in more than 50% of their playoff appearances in the Super Bowl era. They are: Atlanta-six one and out in 11 playoffs… Cincinnati-seven one and out in 10 playoffs… Cleveland-eight one and out in 14 playoffs… Detroit-nine one and out in 10 playoffs… Indianapolis-12 one and out in 20 playoffs… Kansas City-11 one and out in 15 playoffs… New Orleans-five one and out in nine playoffs… Tampa Bay-six one and out in 10 playoffs… Tennesse Titans/Houston Oilers-10 one and out in 18 playoffs.
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Sunday.
All indications are that the NFL lockout is near an end. To get in the mood for some football, here’s a little stat that will get you thinking about the upcoming NFL season.
So… how many points does an NFL team need to score to win on a consistent basis? Looking at the 256 regular season games and the 11 playoff games from last season, here’s a breakdown of win-loss records when teams scored a certain number of points in a game.
0-9 points 2-52 .039
10-19 points 48-115 .294
20-29 points 92-84 .523
30-39 points 103-16 .866
40-49 points 20-0 1.000
50 points or more 2-0 1.000
Here’s a few additional stats:
* The most frequent score was 20 points; a team scored 20 points in 39 games. Next was 17 points, which was scored by 38 teams last year.
* Teams that scored 25 or more points in a game were 164-40, an .804 winning percentage.
* Teams that scored under 25 points usually had a losing record, but teams had winning records in four point totals under 25 points… teams were 3-1 when scoring 15 points; 8-5 when scoring 19 points; 4-2 when scoring 22 points; and 16-6 when scoring 23 points.
* Most points scored to lose a game last year was 36.
* Teams were 50-167 (.230) when they scored under 20 points.