MLB Standings: How important is the HR to a team’s win-loss record?
Russell Martin (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published daily that focuses on stats that go beyond the numbers.
How important is the home run to a team’s success?
If you ask the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros this morning, they will tell you that the long-ball is very important. The Yankees got a walk-off home run from Russell Martin on their way to a sweep of the cross-town rival Mets in yesterday’s 5-4 win. For the Astros, they slugged four home runs in Sunday’s 11-9 win over the Chicago White Sox.
But let’s get back to the question above. For the Yankees, Martin’s game-winner was his second four-bagger of the game. It was also the 31st game of the season where the Yankees have hit two or more home runs in a game. They have a record of 26 wins and only five losses in those games, an .839 winning percentage. What makes that stat even more remarkable is that when the Yankees do not hit a home run in a game, their record is 0-12!
Through games of May 10, teams that have multiple home run games have won 340 and lost 131, a .722 winning percentage. Teams that do not homer in a game have won 238 and lost 477, a winning percentage of .333… that’s a difference of .389!
Here’s a look at each of the 3o MLB teams and how well they have played in games where they hit multiple home runs and those games where they went homerless.
Multiple HR games/Homerless games (Pct. Difference)
N.Y. Yankees 26-5 .839/0-12 .000 (.839)
Boston 15-2 .882/4-17 .190 (.692)
Arizona 11-2 .846/6-18 .250 (.596)
Chicago White Sox 17-3 .850/4-11 .267 (.583)
St. Louis 18-6 .750/4-18 .182 (.568)
Cincinnati 16-5 .762/6-20 .231 (.531)
Texas 15-4 .789/4-11 .267 (.522)
Milwaukee 12-6 .667/3-16 .158 (.509)
Atlanta 15-3 .833/7-14 .333 (.500)
Minnesota 7-3 .700/6-22 .214 (.486)
Houston 10-3 .769/8-18 .308 (.461)
Baltimore 16-8 .667/3-11 .214 (.453)
Cleveland 10-3 .769/9-19 .321 (.448)
Pittsburgh 10-2 .833/12-17 .414 (.419)
Seattle 8-4 .667/6-17 .261 (.406)
Philadelphia 11-4 .733/9-18 .333 (.400)
Miami 11-4 .733/10-18 .357 (.376)
L.A. Angels 13-4 .765/9-12 .429 (.336)
Tampa Bay 13-4 .765/9-11 .450 (.315)
Toronto 17-7 .708/6-9 .400 (.308)
Kansas City 7-4 .636/9-18 .333 (.303)
Washington 11-2 .846/12-10 .545 (.301)
Oakland 8-5 .615/9-18 .333 (.282)
L.A. Dodgers 5-1 .833/16-12 .571 (.262)
Chicago Cubs 6-6 .500/8-21 .276 (.224)
Detroit 9-7 .563/9-14 .391 (.172)
Colorado 9-10 .474/7-14 .333 (.141)
N.Y. Mets 7-6 .538/13-17 .433 (.105)
San Francisco 5-3 .625/19-17 .528 (.097)
San Diego 2-5 .286/11-27 .289 (+.003)
Did you know?
* The Yankees have the most multi-HR games with 31. The Red Sox have the best winning percentage in multiple home run games with a .882 winning percentage (15-2)
* Colorado and San Diego are the only two teams that have a losing record in games where they hit two or more home runs. The Rockies are 9-10 and the Padres are 2-5 in multiple home run games.
* The Dodgers, Giants and Nationals are the only teams with winning records in games where they do not hit a home runs. The Padres have the most homerless games with 38.
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Which MLB team (if any) will lose 100 games this season?
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published multiple times weekly focusing on stats that go beyond the numbers.
Houston Astros logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Last season the Houston Astros were the only team to lose 100 or more games in the majors. It was, however, the first time in the team’s history that they lost over 100 games in a season since they began playing in the National League in 1962.
The 2011 MLB season was the fourth consecutive year that at least one team lost 100 or more games. In the past 30 seasons, we have had 33 different teams lose 100 or more games; there have been 10 seasons since 1982 where no team has lost 100 or more games in a season.
Here’s a look at each of the 30 MLB teams and the last time they lost 100 or more games in a season.
Team, Last season they lost 100+ games (losses that year)
St. Louis… 1908(105)
New York Yankees… 1912(102)
Los Angeles Angels… (Have never lost 100+; franchise began in 1961)
Philadelphia… 1961(107)
Boston…1965(100)
Chicago Cubs… 1966(103)
Chicago White Sox… 1970(106)
Texas… 1973(105)
Oakland… 1979(108)
Toronto… 1979(109)
Cincinnati… 1982(101)
Minnesota… 1982(102)
San Francisco… 1985(100)
Atlanta… 1988(106)
Baltimore… 1988(107)
Cleveland… 1991(105)
Colorado… (Have never lost 100+; franchise began in 1993)
New York Mets… 1993(103)
San Diego… 1993(101)
Miami… 1998(108)
Milwaukee… 2002(106)
Detroit… 2003(119)
Arizona… 2004(111)
Kansas City… 2006(100)
Tampa Bay… 2006(101)
Washington… 2009(103)
Pittsburgh… 2010(105)
Seattle… 2010(101)
Houston… 2011(106)
So what are the chances of the Astros having a “better” season in 2012? Of the 30 teams that lost 100 or more games in a season from 1982-2011 and then played a full compliment of games the next season (162 games) 26 of those 30 teams lost fewer games the following season. Only five of those teams also lost 100 or more games the following season. Here’s a snaphot look at the six teams that lost 100 or more games in the past 30 seasons that had the biggest improvement the next season. (Note: Five of the 30 teams actually had a winning record the year after they lost 100+ games)
Team, 100+loss season, next year, difference
Baltimore… 107 losses in 1988; 75 losses in 1989 = 32-loss difference
Detroit… 119 losses in 2003; 90 losses in 2004 = 29-loss difference
Arizona… 111 losses in 2004; 85 losses in 2005 = 26-loss difference
Detroit… 109 losses in 1996; 83 losses in 1997 = 26-loss difference
Cleveland… 102 losses in 1985; 78 losses in 1986 = 24-loss difference
Seattle… 101 losses in 2008; 77 losses in 2009 = 24-loss difference
Which team is most likely to join the 100-loss club this season? Since 1982, the average team to lose 100 or more games in a season lost 89.4 games the previous season. Last season, the Colorado Rockies were the only team to lose 89 games. If they were to lose 100 or more games in 2012, it would be the first time in their history.
Yankees making 50th postseason appearance
Image by acordova via Flickr
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Friday with a bonus “SIX STATS…” posting every Friday.
Six of the eight teams that will play in the 2011 MLB postseason have been determined. The Wild Card berths are still up for grabs and we will have to wait until the final day of the season (and maybe longer!) to have a full compliment of playoff teams.
One thing is for certain… the New York Yankees are in the playoffs, a place they find themselves almost every year. In fact, the Yankees have played in 111 seasons since 1901 when the World Series began and they will be playing in their 50th postseason… a postseason appearance percentage of 45%. The surprise number two team in this stat are the Arizona Diamondbacks who have made the postseason in five of their 14 seasons (35.7%).
Here’s a look are what percentage of their franchise seasons each of the teams have played in the postseason since 1901.
Team Seasons in postseason Total seasons Pct
New York Yankees 50 111 45.0
Arizona 5 14 35.7
L.A. Dodgers 26 111 23.4
Oakland 23 111 20.7
San Francisco 23 111 20.7
Houston 9 50 18.0
L.A. Angels 9 51 17.6
Kansas City 7 43 16.3
Colorado 3 19 15.8
Chicago Cubs 16 111 14.4
Toronto 5 35 14.3
New York Mets 7 50 14.0
Philadelphia 14 111 12.6
Pittsburgh 14 111 12.6
Minnesota 14 111 12.6
Detroit 13 111 11.7
Cincinnati 13 111 11.7
San Diego 5 43 11.6
Seattle 4 35 11.4
Florida 2 19 10.5
Baltimore 11 111 9.9
Texas 5 51 9.8
Milwaukee 4 43 9.3
Cleveland 10 111 9.0
Chicago White Sox 9 111 8.1
Washington 1 43 2.3
The four teams fighting for the final two spots:
St. Louis 23 110 20.9
Atlanta 21 110 19.1
Boston 20 110 18.2
Tampa Bay 2 13 15.4
WE INTERRUPT THIS BLOG FOR A TRIVIA QUESTION. What team has the longest active streak of making the postseason? Answer at end of blog.
Here’s a question for you: Does the team that had the better regular season record have an advantage over its opponents in the postseason? In looking at the playoffs from 1995 to 2010, here’s what we found… In the League Division Series, the team with the better regular season record won 33 series, lost 28 series and three series were played by teams with the same regular season record. In the League Championship Series, the team with the better regular season record won 17 series, lost 13 series and two series were played by teams with the same regular season record. In the World Series, the team with the better regular season record won 7 series and lost 9 series.
TRIVIA ANSWER: The Philadelphia Phillies have the longest active playoff streak with five straight seasons in the postseason.
Brewers end “division leader on September 1” drought
Image via Wikipedia
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Sunday with a bonus posting “SIX STATS…” published every Friday.
Prior to the beginning of the 2011 MLB season, six teams had never led their division on September 1 since 1994 when baseball went to three divisions in each league. The six: Toronto, Kansas City, Florida, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee and Colorado. The Milwaukee Brewers, however, will wake up tomorrow, September 1, and find themselves in the unfamiliar leader slot in the NL Central with one month remaining in the 2011 season.
In the 102 races since 1994 (17 years times six divisions), 82 (80.4%) of the teams that led their division on the morning of September 1 went on to win the division that year. Ironically, last year three teams that had the division lead the morning of September 1 did not win the title, the first time three September 1 leaders failed to win the division in a season since that first year of six divisions.
(WE INTERRUPT THIS BLOG FOR A TRIVIA QUESTION: Can you name the three teams that led their division on September 1 last season but did not win the title? Answer at the end of the blog.)
Here’s a look at how far division leaders were ahead of their closest pursuer on September 1 and if they won the division that year. Based on the numbers below we see that of the 56 teams that had a lead of five or more games on September 1, 55 of those won the title that year. The only blemish was in 1995 when the California Angels had a 7.5 game lead in the AL West on September 1 but lost out to the Seattle Mariners for the AL West crown.
Sept. 1 leader games ahead in standings Times Titles
0.5, 1 or 1.5 games ahead 16 10
2 or 2.5 games ahead 9 2
3 or 3.5 games ahead 10 6
4 or 4.5 games ahead 10 8
5 or 5.5 games ahead 10 10
6 or 6.5 games ahead 8 8
7 or 7.5 games ahead 11 10
8 or 8.5 games ahead 6 6
9 or 9.5 games ahead 0 0
10 or more games ahead 21 21
(Note: In one division race, 2007 NL West, two teams (Arizona and San Diego) were tied for the lead on Sept. 1. Arizona won the division.)
TRIVIA ANSWER: The three teams that had division leads last year on September 1 but did not win the title were the New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres.
Did you know: Of the 30 teams that had a division lead of three games or less on September 1 since 1994, 16 did not win the division that season.
‘Home Sweet Home’ on the diamond
The New York Yankees went 52-29 in 2010 at Yankee Stadium giving them their 19th straight season with a winning record at home, longest streak in the major leagues. Topping the National League are the St. Louis Cardinals who have had a winning record at home for 11 straight seasons.
Following are the teams that have the longest current winning seasons at their home park.
Team Consecutive winnings seasons at home
New York Yankees 19
St. Louis Cardinals 11
Philadelphia Phillies 8
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