10 boxscore stats that may determine the NCAA men’s basketball champion
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published multiple times weekly focusing on stats that go beyond the numbers.
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
What will be the key factors for Kentucky and Kansas in tonight’s title game? Defense? Three-point shooting? Rebounding? Reserves? To help with the pre-game analysis of the game, here’s a look at several boxscore stats and how these numbers have (or have not) favored the championship game winners. The numbers presented are based on the past 25 NCAA men’s Division I championship games.
1. Bench Scoring: The champion’s reserves have outscored the opposition bench in 15 of the 25 games (they had the same bench point total in one contest). The winners got 10 or more points from their bench in 18 of the 25 contests; the championship game losers bench scored 10 or more points in only 10 of the 25 games.
2. The Game‘s Leading Scorer: The game’s leading scorer has come from the winning team in 17 of the 25 games (in one game, players from opposing teams tied for game-high honors).
3. Halftime Lead: The team leading at halftime has won 19 of the last 23 championship games.
4. Better shooting: In the last 25 title games, the team that had a better field goal percentage won 22 and lost only three. The team with the better field goal percentage for the game has won the last 14 title contests.
5. Three-point shooting: Shooting more threes is not a big deal; the winning team had more three-point attempts in only seven of the 25 games. The winning team made more shots from beyond the arc in 10 games (in one game both team made the same amount).
6. Free throw shooting: Getting to the line and making more free throws than the opposition has been a factor in the last 25 games; the winning team has shot more and made more free throws in 15 of the 25 games.
7. Rebounds: The winning team has outrebounded their opponents in 14 of the 25 games.
8. Assists: The winning team has had more assists in 15 of the 25 games; in two games the teams had the same number of assists.
9. Fewer turnovers: Ironically, having fewer turnovers than the opposition was not a major factor. The team with the fewer turnovers only won 10 of the 25 games.
10. Seeds: Tonight’s title game features #1 seed Kentucky versus #2 seed Kansas. The #1 seed has faced the #2 seed in eight previous title games. The #1 seed has won six and lost two. Since 1979, when all teams were seeded in the tournament, #1 seeds are 12-6 in the championship game. The #2 seeds are 6-9 in championship games since 1979.
Teams with most losses to win NCAA basketball championship
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published multiple times weekly focusing on stats that go beyond the numbers.
National Association of Basketball Coaches NCAA Championship Trophy (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Tomorrow night’s NCAA men’s Division I basketball title game is all set with Kentucky (37-2) facing off against Kansas (32-6).
Should Kansas win, they would become the 16th team in tournament history to win the title with six or more losses in the season. Kentucky, on the other hand, with a win would become the first team with two or fewer losses to win the championship since UConn in 1999 (UConn was 34-2 that season).
Here’s a look at the schools that have won the men’s title with five or more losses.
Losses in title season, school, title year
11: Kansas (1988)
10: North Carolina State (1983), Villanova (1985)
9: Indiana (1981), Arizona (1997), Connecticut (2011)
7: Marquette (1977), Louisville (1986), Michigan (1989), Duke (1991), Michigan State (2000)
6: Kentucky (1958), Michigan State (1979), Connecticut (2004), Florida (2006)
5: Oregon (1939), CCNY (1950), UNLV (1990), Syracuse (2003), Florida (2007), Duke (2010)
Did you know? From 1939-76 (38 years), only three teams with five or more losses won the NCAA men’s basketball championship. From 1977 until last year (35 years), 17 different schools with five or more losses won the title. The average number of losses of the 73 previous men’s champions was 3.7.
SIX STATS you might not know about… the NCAA men’s Final Four
SIX STATS is a bonus feature of Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’
Final Four (Photo credit: slack13)
1. Since 1985 when the NCAA went to a 64-team format for the tournament, 71 of the 112 (63.4%) teams in the Final Four were either a #1 or #2 seed. This year three of the four teams are either a #1 or #2 seed (Louisville as a #4 seed is the only exception). About 86% of the Final Four teams since 1985 have been a #1, #2, #3 or #4 seed. Since 1979 when the NCAA went to seeding all the teams, no teams that were seeded #10, #12, #13, #14, #15 or #16 have made it to the Final Four. Three #11 seeds have made it to the Final Four since 1979.
2. In the 54 Final Four semifinal games since 1979, the higher seed has won 26 and lost 15. On 13 occasions teams that were seeded the same faced off in the semis (such is the case on Saturday when two #2 seeds – Ohio State and Kansas – face off in one semifinal)
3. Thirty-two of the 54 (59%) Final Four semifinal games have been decided by nine points or less.
4. The teams that won their semifinal game by a closer margin has won the title 14 times and lost 10 (three times the title game opponents won their semifinal game by the same margin).
5. There have been 19 times when a team has played in back-to-back championship games. The last to do so was Butler in 2010 and 2011 (they lost both games). Prior to that it was Florida in 2006 and 2007 (they won both games).
6. The state of Missouri has hosted the most Final Fours with 13. Tied for second are New York and Kentucky with seven. They are followed by Texas, Indiana, and this year’s host, (New Orleans) Louisiana, with six.
Schools with a men’s and women’s Final Four team in the same year
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published multiple times monthly focusing on stats that go beyond the numbers.
National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) logo. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
The 80-65 loss by the Kentucky women to UConn in the regional final Tuesday night means that we will not have Final Four teams from the same school in both the men’s and women’s tournament.
This year three different schools had their men’s and women’s teams in both Sweet Sixteens: Baylor, Kansas and Kentucky.
Following are the nine times when both the men’s and women’s basketball teams made it to the Final Four in the same season.
Year, school with both men’s and women’s basketball team making the Final Four
1983: Georgia
1999: Duke (both teams played in the championship game)
2002: Oklahoma
2003: Texas
2004: Connecticut (both teams won the championship)
2005: Michigan State
2006: LSU
2009: Connecticut
2011: Connecticut
SIX STATS you might not know about… Final Four teams (the seed history)
SIX STATS is a bonus feature of Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Past history in the NCAA men’s Final Four is pointing to a Kentucky national championship. Here’s a look at some stats from the past 33 tournaments (in 1979 the NCAA went to seeding all the teams) and how team seeds have performed in the past.
1. A number one seed has won the NCAA men’s championship 20 times in the last 33 years. Since 1992 (the last 20 years) a #1 seed has won the tourney 14 times.
2. Kentucky is the only #1 seed in this year’s tournament. In the 11 times when there was only one #1 seed in the Final Four, that number one seed won the championship six times. This is the 31st time in the last 34 years of the tournament that at least one #1 seed has been in the Final Four.
3. This is the fifth time since 1979 that two #2 seeds are in the Final Four (1979, 1994, 1995, 2004). In the four previous times when two #2 seeds made the Final Four, one of those #2 seeds won the title (Michigan State in 1979 and Connecticut in 2004). Six #2 seeds have won the title since 1979, the last being Connecticut in 2004.
4. Louisville is the 12th #4 seed to make it to the Final Four since 1979. Only one #4 seed has ever won the championship: Arizona in 1997.
5. The lowest seeded team of the Final Four teams has won the tournament five times (Indiana as a #3 seed in 1981; North Carolina State as a #6 seed in 1983; Villanova as a #8 seed in 1985; Kansas as a #6 seed in 1988; and Arizona as a #4 seed in 1997).
6. This is only the second time since 1979 that two #2 seeds will face off in a Final Four semi-final game. This is the sixth time that a #1 seed will face a #4 seed in a Final Four semi-final. The #1 seed has won four of those five games.
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