NFL playoff seeds: Does it really matter?
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With one week left in the 2013 regular season, there is still a lot of uncertainty about which teams will make the playoffs and which seed they have.
Back in 1990, the NFL went to a 12-team playoff system with six teams making the post-season from the two conferences; each conference is seeded from the top seed to the #6 seed. So with all this jockeying for playoff position, the question becomes… does it really matter what seed a team is in the playoffs? The obvious answer is “Yes.” To back up that statement, let’s look at how well each seed has done in the playoffs since 1990 when the current 12-team playoff format was put in place.
Division Seed 1990-99 2000-12 Total
AFC #1 11-9 13-12 24-21 .533
AFC #2 11-10 16-10 27-20 .574
AFC #3 10-10 14-12 24-22 .522
AFC #4 15-9 14-11 29-20 .592
AFC #5 4-10 7-13 11-23 .324
AFC #6 1-10 9-12 10-22 .313
NFC #1 22-4 16-12 38-16 .704
NFC #2 15-8 12-12 27-20 .574
NFC #3 5-10 11-13 16-23 .410
NFC #4 7-10 14-12 21-22 .488
NFC #5 3-10 8-12 11-22 .333
NFC #6 6-10 9-12 15-22 .405
Here’s a look at the win-loss records if we combine the seeds for the two conferences.
AFC/NFC combined W-L, Pct
#1 Seed 62-37 .626
#2 Seed 54-40 .574
#3 Seed 40-45 .471
#4 Seed 50-42 .543
#5 Seed 22-45 .328
#6 Seed 25-44 .362
Did you know? Thirty-four of the 46 Super Bowl teams since 1990 have either been a #1 or #2 seed. The NFC #1 seed has won seven Super Bowls since 1990, most during that time. The AFC #2, NFC #2 and AFC #4 have each won three during that time. The NFC #1 seed has played in 12 of the 21 Super Bowls since 1990.
Did you know? (Part 2) The AFC #5 seed and the NFC #3 seed have not won a Super Bowl since 1990; in fact, an AFC #5 seed has not appeared in the Super Bowl since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#71) Six Stats you may not know about… Super Bowl cities, states
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From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
Super Bowl XLVIII will be played at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. It will be the first Super Bowl hosted in New Jersey. Here’s a look at Super Bowl host cities and states.
1. By hosting last year’s game, New Orleans is now tied with Miami as the cities that have hosted the most Super Bowls with 10. The other cities to host three or more times are Pasadena (5), Tampa (4) and San Diego (3). The state of Florida has hosted 15 Super Bowls followed by California with 11 and Louisiana with 10.
2. The NFC is 7-4 in Super Bowl games in California… the AFC is 10-5 in Florida-hosted Super Bowls… the two conferences have each won five games in 10 that have been hosted in Louisiana… the NFC is 20-12 in Super Bowls outside of Florida… The NFC is 5-0 in Super Bowls played in either Minnesota, Georgia or Arizona.
3. The NFC has won six of the last seven Super Bowls played in California… the AFC has won five of the last six Super Bowls held in Florida… the NFC has won three of the last five Super Bowl games played in Louisiana.
4. In 17 of the 47 Super Bowls, the final score was a margin of eight points or less. Seven of those 17 games were played in Florida.
5. In 18 of the 47 Super Bowls, the two teams combined for 50 or more points. Seven of those games were played in California. The highest scoring Super Bowl was Super Bowl XXIX when San Francisco and San Diego combined for 75 points. That game was played in Miami.
6. How well have teams done in specific time zones? Glad you asked. The NFC is 8-11 in Super Bowl games played in the Eastern Standard Time; the NFC is 8-7 in Central Standard Time Super Bowl games; the NFC is 2-0 in games played in Mountain Standard Time; and the NFC is 7-4 in games played in Pacific Standard Time. This year’s game in New Jersey will be played in an Eastern Standard Time zone city.
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#69) Six Stats you may not know about… the NFL Conference Championship Games
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From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
Last year’s Conference Championship Games included the Baltimore Ravens going to New England in a rematch of the 2011 AFC title game, and the Atlanta Falcons hosting the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. The Ravens, Patriots and 49ers were each in the conference title game the previous year.
Here are a few stats that you may find interesting about previous conference championship games.
(Note: The following stats reflect the NFC and AFC Conference Championship games that have been played since the 1970 merger of the NFL and AFL… 43 years, a total of 86 games.)
1. The home team has won 56 and lost 30 in conference championship games (a .651 winning percentage). In the last seven conference championship weekends, the home teams are 9-5. In the 43 seasons, there has been only three times where both the home teams lost: 1992, 1997 and last year. Both home teams (New England and Atlanta) were defeated in the conference title games this past season.
2. In 29 of the 86 games (33.7%) the game was decided by eight points or less. Twelve of the 86 games were decided by three points or less; 15 of the 84 were decided by 20 points or more. In the last seven seasons, nine of the 14 conference championship games were decided by one score (eight points or less).
3. Teams that scored less than 20 points in a conference championship game since 1970 has won only 13 and lost 66 (a .165 winning percentage). Teams that scored 30 or more points have won 30 and lost only 2 (a .938 winning percentage). The only teams to score 30 or more points in a conference championship game since 1970 and lose? Cleveland in 1987 when they scored 33 in their loss to Denver; and in 2006 when the Patriots scored 34 in their loss to the Colts.
4. Teams that had the better regular season record have won the conference championship game 53 times and lost 22 (a .707 winning percentage). In 11 games the teams playing for the conference championship had the same regular season record.
5. Scoring more points in the playoff game the weekend prior to the conference championship is not a big factor in determining who will win the conference title game. The team that scored more points of the two conference championship game foes the previous week won 45 and lost 37 (in four cases the teams scored the exact number of points the previous week).
6. Winning the playoff game the weekend prior to the conference championship by a bigger margin than your conference championship game foe was a little bit more of a determining factor to who wins the conference championship game. The team that won the divisional playoff game by a bigger margin the week before won 54 times and lost 26 (a .675 winning percentage). In six cases the conference championship game teams won by the same margin the previous week.
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#68) SIX STATS you might not know about… the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend
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From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
In 2002, the NFL realigned into four divisions in each conference. In addition, the playoffs were adjusted to include the four division winners and two wild card teams in each conference. This is the current playoff system in the NFL.
The first weekend of the NFL playoffs feature two wild card teams from the AFC and two from the NFC playing the division winners in their conference with the third and fourth best records of the four division champs. This first weekend is commonly referred to as “Wild Card Weekend” (WCW).
Let’s look at some stats from “Wild Card Weekend” since that 2002 realignment… a total of 44 games.
1. The home team holds a 26-18 (a .591 winning percentage) record in WCW play. The only two years since 2002 when the home teams won all four games the first weekend of the playoffs were in 2006 and 2011. Home teams are 7-1 in the last two years of the WCW.
2. Having a better record than your opponent on WCW doesn’t matter. Teams with a better record than the opposition on WCW are 19-17 (there have been eight games between teams with the same record).
3. Eighteen of the 44 Wild Card Weekend games since 2002 have been decided by eight points or less.
4. Teams that won the first weekend went on to win the next week 16 of 44 times. In 2008, three teams that won on WCW also won the following week, most of any year.
5. Teams that scored 30 or more points on WCW since 2002 have won 19 and lost four, an .826 winning percentage.
6. Eight teams that played on WCW since 2002 have made it to the Super Bowl: Carolina (2003), Pittsburgh (2005), Indianapolis (2006), New York Giants (2007), Arizona (2008), Green Bay (2010), New York Giants (2011) and Baltimore (2012). Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the Giants (in both 2007 and 2011) Green Bay and Baltimore won the Super Bowl those years. The last three Super Bowl champs have come from teams that played on Wild Card Weekend.
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#63) NFL Playoff Seeds: Does it really matter… part 2
From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
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In the previous item we looked at the playoff records of each of the seeds in both the AFC and NFC, and the combined records of the seeds since 1990.
In this item we look at individual seed match-ups and see how well seeds have done when they faced certain seeds. The following reflect records of AFC and NFC playoff games since 1990 (the last 23 post seasons).
#1 Seed vs. #2 Seed… #1 Seed is 14-9
#1 Seed vs. #3 Seed… #1 Seed is 5-1
#1 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #1 Seed is 15-7
#1 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #1 Seed is 8-3
#1 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #1 Seed is 11-5
#2 Seed vs. #3 Seed… #2 Seed is 23-7
#2 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #2 Seed is 8-7
#2 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #2 Seed is 6-3
#2 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #2 Seed is 2-2
#3 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #3 Seed is 1-0
#3 Seed vs. #5 Seed… No games
#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #3 Seed is 30-16
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #4 Seed is 31-15
#4 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #4 Seed is 1-0
#5 Seed vs. #6 Seed… No games
Did you know? Of the 230 playoff games in the last 23 years (excluding the Super Bowl games) the team with the higher seed has won 155 and lost 75 (a .674 winning percentage).
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
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