Tag Archives: New York Jets

Seattle Seahawks: No offense, no problem!

English: Pete Carroll at the USC 2005 National...

Pete Carroll (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If you would have told Seattle head coach Pete Carroll that his Seahawks would only collect 135 yards in total offense in their October 28 game against the St. Louis Rams, he might have responded, “How bad did we get beat?”

Fortunately for Carroll and the Seahawks, Seattle was still able to come away with a 14-9 win despite the dismal offensive display. Consider this: Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson had almost two-and-half-times more yards in his record-setting game on Sunday than the Seattle offense had on Monday night. Johnson, in his 329-yards receiving game against the Cowboys had more yards last Sunday than 16 NFL teams in Week 8! But let’s get back to Seattle.

You would think that having less than 135 yards in total offense would not be a good omen. The Seahawks’ win was only the 28th time since 1970 (AFL-NFL merger) that a team with 135 or fewer total yards of offense won a game. The last time it happened was in 2010 when the Miami Dolphins amassed only 131 total yards of offense in a 10-6 win over the New York Jets. Since 2000, teams with 135 or fewer yards of offense in a game have won 13 and lost 60 (a .178 winning percentage).

Let’s expand the parameters a little. Let’s take a look at how well teams have done when they have gained less than 200 total yards in a game since 2000. There have been 468 times since 2000 that an NFL team had less than 200 yards of offense in a contest; in those games, that team won only 67 times, a .143 winning percentage. The Cleveland Browns had the most games with less than 200 yards of offense since 2000 with 37. They won only one of those games.

Here are the number of games each team had less than 200 yards of total offense in a game since 2000. Their record in those games is listed in parenthesis.

Cleveland: 37 games with less than 200 yards of offense (1-36 record in those games)

San Francisco: 28 games (4-24)

Buffalo: 25 games (3-22)

Chicago: 24 games (5-19)

Arizona: 22 games (5-17)

Oakland: 21 games (2-19)

Carolina: 19 games (2-17)
Cincinnati: 19 games (1-18)
Seattle: 19 games (4-15)

Baltimore: 18 games (7-11)

New York Jets: 17 games (1-16)
St. Louis: 17 games (2-15)

Detroit: 15 games (2-13)
Houston: 15 games (3-12)
Miami: 15 games (5-10)
Tennessee: 15 games (6-9)
Washington: 15 games (1-14)

Tampa Bay: 14 games (3-11)

Dallas: 13 games (1-12)

Kansas City: 12 games (1-11)
Philadelphia: 12 games (1-11)

Atlanta: 11 games (0-11)

Jacksonville: 10 games (1-9)

Minnesota: 9 games (2-7)
San Diego: 9 games (1-8)

New York Giants: 8 games (0-8)
Pittsburgh: 8 games (2-6)

New England: 7 games (1-6)

Indianapolis: 6 games (0-6)

Denver: 3 games (0-3)
Green Bay: 3 games (0-3)

New Orleans: 2 games (0-2)

There have been five games since 1970 where a team gained less than 100 yards of offense and still won the game. The five games:

* Tennessee over Jacksonville, 24-17 in 2006. Titans had 98 offensive yards.
* Oakland over Pittsburgh, 20-13 in 2006. Raiders had 98 offensive yards.
* Houston over Pittsburgh, 24-6 in 2002. Texans had 47 offensive yards.
* San Francisco over Atlanta, 10-3 in 1977. Forty-Niners had 97 offensive yards.
* Minnesota over Green Bay, 3-0 in 1971. Vikings had 87 offensive yards.

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14 or more points in the first quarter: Victory in the book?

Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England P...

Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick had to be feeling pretty good. Logan Ryan had just intercepted a pass and returned it 79 yards for a touchdown putting the Pats ahead 14-7 in the first quarter of their game last Sunday against the Jets. Considering that in the past 22 games where the Patriots had scored 14 or more points in the first quarter they had eventually won 21 of those games, you would assume Belichick and his team were well on their way to their sixth victory against one loss for the season.

Unfortunately, the end result was not a win. The Jets got back in the game, it went into overtime and the Patriots lost on a field goal.

Scoring 14 or more points in the first quarter of an NFL game has for the most part been a good omen for teams. Since 2000, there have been 491 times when a team has scored 14-plus points in the first quarter. Those teams have won 400, lost 90 and there was one tie. That’s a winning percentage of .816. Do that in every game of a 16-game season and that will get you 13 or 14 wins, enough probably to host all of your playoff games.

The Green Bay Packers have had the most games since 2000 where they scored 14 or more points in the first quarter with 27. The Baltimore Ravens are the only team since 2000 to not lose a game when they scored 14-plus in the first quarter. They are 9-0.

Following is a look at each NFL team and how many games they played since 2000 where they scored 14 or more points in the first quarter. Their record in those games is also noted.

Teams, games, record

Green Bay, 27… 23-4 .852

Pittsburgh, 25… 21-4 .840

New England, 23… 21-2 .913
Philadelphia, 23… 21-2 .913
San Diego, 23… 21-2 .913

St. Louis, 22… 17-4-1 .795

Atlanta, 21… 15-6 .714
Seattle, 21… 18-3 .857

Denver, 20… 17-3 .850

New Orleans, 19… 15-4 .789

Indianapolis, 17… 14-3 .824
Tennessee, 17… 13-4 .765

New York Giants, 16… 14-2 .875

Buffalo, 15… 10-5 .667
Cincinnati, 15… 14-1 .933
Kansas City, 15… 14-1 .933
Minnesota, 15… 14-1 .933
New York Jets, 15… 12-3 .800

Oakland, 14… 13-1 .929

Carolina, 12… 9-3 .750
Detroit, 12… 3-9 .250
San Francisco, 12… 7-5 .583

Chicago, 11… 10-1 .909
Arizona, 11… 9-2 .818

Houston, 10… 9-1 .900
Tampa Bay, 10… 8-2 .800

Dallas, 9… 8-1 .889
Miami, 9… 5-4 .556
Baltimore, 9… 9-0 1.000

Cleveland, 8… 6-2 .750
Washington, 8… 6-2 .750

Jacksonville, 7… 4-3 .571

Teams this year are 12-3 (.800 winning percentage) if they scored 14-plus points in the first quarter. Dallas, New England and Oakland are the three teams that have lost games this season after scoring 14 or more points in the first quarter.

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Pitching a shutout at halftime in the NFL

 

English: The New England Patriots' offense on ...

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If you’re a defensive coordinator in the NFL, you’ve got to feel pretty good if your team heads into the locker room at halftime of a game and your opponents do not have any points on the scoreboard. But does pitching a shutout in the first half equate to ultimate success (read: victory) in that game?

Let’s put some numbers to that question. First, there have been nine games so far in 2013 where a team has held their opponents to zero points in the first half. In those games, those teams that pitched the first-half shutout won nine and lost two. Two teams, Green Bay and Seattle, have held their opponents to zero points at half in two games in 2013.

If we take a look back to 2004, teams that held the opposition scoreless in the first half have won 357 and lost 64, an .848 winning percentage. The Patriots and Steelers have each held their opponents scoreless in 22 games from 2004-2013, most in the NFL.

Here’s a look at the number of games each NFL team held opponents scoreless in the first half from 2004-2013. The win-loss record in those games is noted in parenthesis.

Games where opponents were scoreless at halftime (record in those games)
22: New England (21-1); Pittsburgh (20-2)
19: Cincinnati (17-2); New York Giants (18-1); Baltimore (18-1)
18: Green Bay (15-3); Tampa Bay (14-4)
17: New York Jets (15-2); Seattle (16-1)
15: Atlanta (14-1); San Diego (13-2)
14: Carolina (12-2); Chicago (11-3); Denver (14-0); Houston (12-2); San Francisco (13-1)
13: Jacksonville (11-2)
12: Cleveland (5-7); Miami (5-7); Washington (10-2)
11: Buffalo: (9-2); Kansas City (9-2); Tennessee (8-3)
10: Detroit (9-1); Minnesota (7-3)
9: Indianapolis (8-1); Arizona (7-2); Philadelphia (9-0)
7: Dallas (5-2)
5: Oakland (4-1); St. Louis (4-1)
4: New Orleans (4-0)

You probably noticed that three teams, Denver, Philadelphia and New Orleans, are undefeated in games since 2004 when they held opponents scoreless in the first half. The last time these teams lost a game when they held their foes scoreless at half were: Eagles (12/28/2002); Broncos (12/2/2001), Saints (10/17/1999).

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No turnovers: 75-80% chance of victory in the NFL

Ben Roethlisberger of the Pittsbrgh Steelers d...

 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

Last week I posted an article that noted the chances of winning an NFL game where a team commits four or more turnovers was about 20 percent. Let’s take a look at the other end of the turnover spectrum… no turnovers in a contest.

Last week’s games featured 10 teams that did not commit a turnover. Those teams were 8-2 (the two teams that lost even though they did not commit a turnover were Miami and Detroit). That 80% winning percentage last week is pretty close to what we’ve seen since 2010. In the last three-plus years of NFL play, teams with no turnovers in a game have won 298, lost 79 and tied once. That’s a .790 winning percentage.

Since 2010, the New England Patriots have played the most turnover-less games, 27. The San Francisco 49ers are the only other team with 20 or more such games; they have played in 21 turnover-less games in the last three-plus seasons. At the bottom of the scale are the Arizona Cardinals who have had no turnovers in only five of their last 54 games.

Following are the number of games since 2010 that each NFL team has played without committing a turnover (the team’s record in those games is also noted).

Team, Turnover-less games (Record)
New England, 27 (25-2)
San Francisco, 21 (19-1-1)
Atlanta, 16 (15-1)
Baltimore, 16 (15-1)
Houston, 16 (15-1)
Kansas City, 16 (11-5)
Tennessee, 16 (12-4)
Green Bay, 15 (13-2)
Tampa Bay, 15 (9-6)
Detroit, 12 (8-4)
Indianapolis, 12 (11-1)
New Orleans, 12 (11-1)
Cincinnati, 11 (9-2)
New York Giants, 11 (9-2)
Pittsburgh, 11 (10-1)
San Diego, 11 (9-2)
Seattle, 11 (8-3)
Cleveland, 10 (6-4)
Dallas, 10 (7-3)
Minnesota, 10 (7-3)
Philadelphia, 10 (7-3)
Carolina, 9 (8-1)
Jacksonville, 9 (5-4)
Miami, 9 (7-2)
New York Jets, 9 (8-1)
St. Louis, 9 (5-4)
Buffalo, 8 (3-5)
Chicago, 8 (5-3)
Oakland, 8 (5-3)
Washington, 8 (5-3)
Denver, 7 (7-0)
Arizona, 5 (4-1)

Note: there have been 35 times this season that a team has gone without a turnover in a game. Teams are 26-9 in those games, a .743 winning percentage.

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Chances of winning an NFL game with four-plus turnovers? One in five!

Houston Texans' Arian Foster fumbles while bei...

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

We can all agree that committing four or more turnovers in a game will probably not lead a team to victory, right? According to research conducted on the Pro-Football-Reference.com website, there have been 3,301 times since 1970 (the AFL-NFL merger) when a team committed four or more turnovers in a game. In those 3,301 games, the team that had four-plus turnovers won 651, lost 2,634 and there were 16 ties. That puts the winning percentage of a team committing four-plus turnovers in a game at .200 (a one-in-five chance that an NFL team will win if they lose the ball four or more times in a game).

It’s interesting to note the .200 winning percentage number because this year, 2013, there have been 15 times when a team had four-plus turnovers; three teams won, 12 lost. That’s a .200 winning percentage for 2013. The three teams that won games when they had four-plus turnovers this year? Chicago, Cincinnati and Cleveland.

If we expand the parameters a bit and look at the numbers going back to 2010, there have been 156 games when a team had four-plus turnovers. Teams are 20-136 in such games, a .128 winning percentage. Following are the teams that have won the most games when they committed four-plus turnovers.

Most wins (2010-2013) in games with four or more turnovers
3: Chicago, Pittsburgh
2: New York Giants
1: Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Green Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Minnesota, New England, New York Jets, Tennessee

One final note: If we go back to 1970, only three teams have won 30% or more of their games when they had four-plus turnovers in a game. Leading the list are the Raiders who have a .357 winning percentage in games when they commit four-plus turnovers. They are followed by the Steelers (.324) and Texans (.308).

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp