NFL playoff seeds: Does it really matter?
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
With one week left in the 2013 regular season, there is still a lot of uncertainty about which teams will make the playoffs and which seed they have.
Back in 1990, the NFL went to a 12-team playoff system with six teams making the post-season from the two conferences; each conference is seeded from the top seed to the #6 seed. So with all this jockeying for playoff position, the question becomes… does it really matter what seed a team is in the playoffs? The obvious answer is “Yes.” To back up that statement, let’s look at how well each seed has done in the playoffs since 1990 when the current 12-team playoff format was put in place.
Division Seed 1990-99 2000-12 Total
AFC #1 11-9 13-12 24-21 .533
AFC #2 11-10 16-10 27-20 .574
AFC #3 10-10 14-12 24-22 .522
AFC #4 15-9 14-11 29-20 .592
AFC #5 4-10 7-13 11-23 .324
AFC #6 1-10 9-12 10-22 .313
NFC #1 22-4 16-12 38-16 .704
NFC #2 15-8 12-12 27-20 .574
NFC #3 5-10 11-13 16-23 .410
NFC #4 7-10 14-12 21-22 .488
NFC #5 3-10 8-12 11-22 .333
NFC #6 6-10 9-12 15-22 .405
Here’s a look at the win-loss records if we combine the seeds for the two conferences.
AFC/NFC combined W-L, Pct
#1 Seed 62-37 .626
#2 Seed 54-40 .574
#3 Seed 40-45 .471
#4 Seed 50-42 .543
#5 Seed 22-45 .328
#6 Seed 25-44 .362
Did you know? Thirty-four of the 46 Super Bowl teams since 1990 have either been a #1 or #2 seed. The NFC #1 seed has won seven Super Bowls since 1990, most during that time. The AFC #2, NFC #2 and AFC #4 have each won three during that time. The NFC #1 seed has played in 12 of the 21 Super Bowls since 1990.
Did you know? (Part 2) The AFC #5 seed and the NFC #3 seed have not won a Super Bowl since 1990; in fact, an AFC #5 seed has not appeared in the Super Bowl since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#71) Six Stats you may not know about… Super Bowl cities, states
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From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
Super Bowl XLVIII will be played at the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. It will be the first Super Bowl hosted in New Jersey. Here’s a look at Super Bowl host cities and states.
1. By hosting last year’s game, New Orleans is now tied with Miami as the cities that have hosted the most Super Bowls with 10. The other cities to host three or more times are Pasadena (5), Tampa (4) and San Diego (3). The state of Florida has hosted 15 Super Bowls followed by California with 11 and Louisiana with 10.
2. The NFC is 7-4 in Super Bowl games in California… the AFC is 10-5 in Florida-hosted Super Bowls… the two conferences have each won five games in 10 that have been hosted in Louisiana… the NFC is 20-12 in Super Bowls outside of Florida… The NFC is 5-0 in Super Bowls played in either Minnesota, Georgia or Arizona.
3. The NFC has won six of the last seven Super Bowls played in California… the AFC has won five of the last six Super Bowls held in Florida… the NFC has won three of the last five Super Bowl games played in Louisiana.
4. In 17 of the 47 Super Bowls, the final score was a margin of eight points or less. Seven of those 17 games were played in Florida.
5. In 18 of the 47 Super Bowls, the two teams combined for 50 or more points. Seven of those games were played in California. The highest scoring Super Bowl was Super Bowl XXIX when San Francisco and San Diego combined for 75 points. That game was played in Miami.
6. How well have teams done in specific time zones? Glad you asked. The NFC is 8-11 in Super Bowl games played in the Eastern Standard Time; the NFC is 8-7 in Central Standard Time Super Bowl games; the NFC is 2-0 in games played in Mountain Standard Time; and the NFC is 7-4 in games played in Pacific Standard Time. This year’s game in New Jersey will be played in an Eastern Standard Time zone city.
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#63) NFL Playoff Seeds: Does it really matter… part 2
From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
In the previous item we looked at the playoff records of each of the seeds in both the AFC and NFC, and the combined records of the seeds since 1990.
In this item we look at individual seed match-ups and see how well seeds have done when they faced certain seeds. The following reflect records of AFC and NFC playoff games since 1990 (the last 23 post seasons).
#1 Seed vs. #2 Seed… #1 Seed is 14-9
#1 Seed vs. #3 Seed… #1 Seed is 5-1
#1 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #1 Seed is 15-7
#1 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #1 Seed is 8-3
#1 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #1 Seed is 11-5
#2 Seed vs. #3 Seed… #2 Seed is 23-7
#2 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #2 Seed is 8-7
#2 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #2 Seed is 6-3
#2 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #2 Seed is 2-2
#3 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #3 Seed is 1-0
#3 Seed vs. #5 Seed… No games
#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #3 Seed is 30-16
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #4 Seed is 31-15
#4 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #4 Seed is 1-0
#5 Seed vs. #6 Seed… No games
Did you know? Of the 230 playoff games in the last 23 years (excluding the Super Bowl games) the team with the higher seed has won 155 and lost 75 (a .674 winning percentage).
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#62) NFL playoff seeds: Does it really matter?
From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Back in 1990, the NFL went to a 12-team playoff system with six teams making the post-season from the two conferences; each conference is seeded from the top seed to the #6 seed. So with all this jockeying for playoff position, the question becomes… does it really matter what seed a team is in the playoffs? The obvious answer is “Yes.”
To back up that statement, let’s look at how well each seed has done in the playoffs since 1990 when the current 12-team playoff format was put in place.
Division Seed 1990-99 2000-12 Total
AFC #1 11-9 13-12 24-21 .533
AFC #2 11-10 16-10 27-20 .574
AFC #3 10-10 14-12 24-22 .522
AFC #4 15-9 14-11 29-20 .592
AFC #5 4-10 7-13 11-23 .324
AFC #6 1-10 9-12 10-22 .313
NFC #1 22-4 16-12 38-16 .704
NFC #2 15-8 12-12 27-20 .574
NFC #3 5-10 11-13 16-23 .410
NFC #4 7-10 14-12 21-22 .488
NFC #5 3-10 8-12 11-22 .333
NFC #6 6-10 9-12 15-22 .405
Here’s a look at the win-loss records if we combine the seeds for the two conferences.
AFC/NFC combined W-L, Pct
#1 Seed 62-37 .626
#2 Seed 54-40 .574
#3 Seed 40-45 .471
#4 Seed 50-42 .543
#5 Seed 22-45 .328
#6 Seed 25-44 .362
Did you know? Thirty-four of the 46 Super Bowl teams since 1990 have either been a #1 or #2 seed. The NFC #1 seed has won seven Super Bowls since 1990, most during that time. The AFC #2, NFC #2 and AFC #4 have each won three during that time. The NFC #1 seed has played in 12 of the 21 Super Bowls since 1990.
Did you know? (Part 2) The AFC #5 seed and the NFC #3 seed have not won a Super Bowl since 1990; in fact, an AFC #5 seed has not appeared in the Super Bowl since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990.
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
NFL rarity! Last year’s AFC, NFC Championship Game losers return
Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
For the first time since the mid-1980s, we have two teams that lost in their respective conference championship game in a year and then both return to those same title games the following year.
Last season the San Francisco 49ers were defeated by the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game. They return to the title game this year to face the Atlanta Falcons. Also last year, the Baltimore Ravens lost to the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. The Ravens get another shot at the Pats in this year’s AFC title game.
The 49ers and Ravens are the fifth pair of teams in the history of the NFL playoffs (since 1966, the Super Bowl era) to return to the conference championship games after losing in them the previous years. The other four times it happened: Cleveland and Oakland (both lost in conference title games in 1968 and then played in those title games the following year); L.A. Rams and Oakland (1974); L.A. Rams and Oakland (1975); Washington and Cleveland (1986).
Here’s a few more stats from the teams that lost conference championship games since 1966 (46 seasons, 92 teams):
* The Chicago Bears and New York Jets were the conference championship game losers after the 2010 season. Neither team made the playoffs in 2011. That was the fifth time in history that both conference championship game losers failed to make the playoffs the following year. The other years that happened: 1985, 1989, 1991 and 2005.
* Sixty of the 92 conference championship game losers made the playoffs the following year, 32 did not. Of the 32 teams, the New York Jets have missed the playoffs three times after losing the conference championship game the prior year. Nine teams have done this twice: Cleveland, L.A. Rams, Chicago, Carolina, Minnesota, Oakland, Pittsburgh, Miami and Denver.
* Nineteen teams have lost the conference championship game in consecutive seasons. The Jets did it in 2009 and 2010. The last NFC team to lose consecutive NFC title games? The Philadelphia Eagles. They lost NFC title games in 2001, 2002 and 2003. The other teams to lose three straight conference title games are the Los Angeles Rams (1974, 1975, 1976), Dallas (1980, 1981, 1982), Oakland (1968, 1969, 1970) and Oakland (1973, 1974, 1975).
* Eight teams lost a conference title game in a season and then won the Super Bowl the following year: San Francisco (1983), Chicago (1984), Washington (1986), San Francisco (1993), Dallas (1994), Green Bay (1995), Oakland (1975) and Pittsburgh (2004). Four teams lost a conference title game and then lost in the Super Bowl the following season: L.A. Rams (1978), Philadelphia (2003), Pittsburgh (1994) and New England (2006).
* Only once in NFL history did both the teams that lost the conference title game in a season then face off against each other in the Super Bowl the following year: That happened in 1994 when Dallas and Pittsburgh lost conference title games and then played each other in the Super Bowl the following season.
* Six of the last eight teams that lost in the NFC Conference Championship Game failed to make the playoffs the next season.
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