Tag Archives: Passer rating

Keeping opposing QBs from having a great game is key in the NFL

Pats vs. Seahawks - 12/7/08

(Photo credit: sethhenry1)

We all know that the NFL is a quarterback-driven league and that a good performance by a QB in a game can go a long ways to helping his team gain a victory. But what about looking at things from the defensive side of the ball… can stopping a QB from having a great game (or even a good game) help a team win? The Kansas City Chiefs may help provide an answer to this question.

The Chiefs are 9-0 and lead the league by allowing only 111 points this season, 12.3 per game. It’s obvious their defense has been a big factor in their undefeated season. But did you know that opposing quarterbacks have a combined QB Passer Rating of only 67.8 when they play Kansas City? That is the best (or worst depending on how you look at it) opposing QB Passer Rating for a defense in the NFL.

The Chiefs have had only two opposing QBs have a QB Passer Rating over 100 this season: Case Keenum at 110.6 and Jason Campbell at 105.4. Dallas’ Tony Romo fell short of the 100.0 mark with 99.1 in his game against the Chiefs. All of the other QBs the Chiefs have faced this year had a QB Passer Rating under 70.0 in the contest versus the Chiefs.

While this number casts a clear vision of why the K.C. defense has played a major role in the team’s success, the opposing QB Passer Rating also reveals some interesting stats that indicate why several teams are performing well (or poorly) based on how well their defense contains the opposing QB. Consider that:

* Of the eight teams that have an opposing QB Passer Rating under 80.0, five of those teams are in first place in their division. Those eight teams have a combined record of 54-20, a .730 winning percentage. The only team with a losing record in this group are the Miami Dolphins who are 4-5

* Of the seven teams that have an opposing QB Passer Rating over 95.9, only one, the Green Bay Packers at 5-4, have a winning record. The combined record of these seven teams is 20-43, a .317 winning percentage.

Following are the opposing QB Passer Ratings for each team.

Kansas City 67.8

Seattle 70.2; San Francisco 73.2; New England 74.2; Carolina 74.6; New Orleans 75.5; Miami 76.1; Cincinnati 78.5

N.Y. Giants 80.5; Tampa Bay 80.8; Arizona 81.6; Cleveland 82.4; Philadelphia 83.6; Denver 83.7; Detroit 84.2; Buffalo 84.6; Pittsburgh 85.8; Indianapolis 88.0; Chicago 88.4; Baltimore 89.5

N.Y. Jets 90.7; Houston 90.9; Dallas 92.9; Tennessee 92.9; St. Louis 93.0; Minnesota 98.3; Washington 98.8; Green Bay 99.5

Oakland 102.1; Jacksonville 103.3; Atlanta 103.5; San Diego 104.3

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

Advertisements

Is Aaron Rodgers the NFL’s best QB ‘quarter by quarter?’

Aaron Rodgers 2011-5

(Photo credit: elviskennedy)

If you want to get into a heated debate, start a discussion about who is the best quarterback in the NFL today. Is it Peyton Manning? Aaron Rodgers? Tom Brady? Drew Brees? How about Russell Wilson, RG III or Andrew Luck?

Everyone has their own criteria for determining the best. Let me offer some thoughts for discussion.

First, let’s use the Passer Rating as the numerical yardstick. Secondly, let’s look at how well QBs perform in each quarter. Are some QBs better in the first quarter and less effective in the fourth quarter.

Following is a breakdown of the QBs with the best Passer Ratings since 2010 in the first, second, third and fourth quarters (minimum of 100 passes attempted in each quarter to qualify for the list).

First Quarter
1. Aaron Rodgers, 114.4
2. Drew Brees, 109.8
3. Russell Wilson, 107.5
4. Andrew Luck, 105.6
5. Matt Ryan, 103.5

Second Quarter
1. Peyton Manning, 111.8
2. Shaun Hill, 111.6
3. Russell Wilson, 107.3
4. Robert Griffin III, 105.1
5. Aaron Rodgers, 102.8

Third Quarter
1. Aaron Rodgers, 117.1
2. Philip Rivers, 108.7
3. Colin Kaepernick, 106.1
4. Peyton Manning, 105.9
5. Matt Schaub, 103.2

Fourth Quarter
1. Aaron Rodgers, 108.9
2. Peyton Manning, 101.7
3. Tony Romo, 100.6
4. Tom Brady, 98.8
5. Russell Wilson, 98.2

Based on the numbers above, we discover some interesting talking points:

* Rodgers is the only QB who had a 100 or higher rating in each of the four quarters.

* Brees and Brady had a 100 Passer Rating in the first, second and third quarters, but not the fourth.

* Rodgers, Peyton and Tony Romo were the only QBs to have a 100 Passer Rating in both the third and fourth quarters.

Let’s look at the 2013 season. Peyton Manning is having a great season and his Broncos have been an early season favorite to make it to the Super Bowl. Peyton has the highest Passer Rating this season of QBs in the first and fourth quarters. Peyton’s Passer Rating is 128.9 in the first quarter and 124.3 in the fourth quarter. Seattle Russell Wilson has the best second quarter rating at 127.34, and Cam Newton has the best third quarter rating at 139.1.

For those Aaron Rodgers fans wondering where Rodgers is at in these 2013 by-quarter Passer Ratings, he is still near the top. His first quarter rating is 106.7, second quarter 93.3, third quarter 117.2, and fourth quarter 105.1. Rodgers is very consistent in his overall passing performance over the course of a game; but it is interesting to note that he seems to do his best work (statistically) in the third quarter, yet the second quarter is his worst (in terms of Passer Rating) of the four quarters. Theories? I’ll throw one out there: Rodgers and his coach Mike McCarthy may be the best at making adjustments at halftime to what their offense needs to do to be successful in the second half.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

99 Stats Until Kickoff: (#29) The NFL’s left-handed quarterbacks

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

The NFL Today's Boomer Esiason during the Supe...

Boomer Esiason (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here’s a couple of trivia questions about the NFL’s left-handed quarterbacks. Let’s see how well you know your southpaw signal-callers in the history of the NFL.

  • Which left-handed QB has started the most games in the NFL?
  • Which left-handed QB has the highest Passer Rating in the league’s history?
  • Which left-handed QB has the most wins as a starting QB in the NFL?

(Answers are provided at the end of this item.)

Fourteen different left-handed quarterbacks have thrown for 10 or more touchdowns in their NFL career. Leading the pack is CBS’ The NFL Today commentator Boomer Esiason, who tossed 247 TD passes in his 14-year NFL career that included stops in New York with the Jets and in Arizona, on top of his 10 years in Cincinnati.

Here’s the list of left-handed quarterbacks who have 10 or more career TD passes.

Player, career TD passes
Boomer Esiason, 247
Steve Young, 232
Ken Stabler, 194
Mark Brunell, 184
Michael Vick, 123
Frankie Albert, 115
Jim Zorn, 111
Scott Mitchell, 95
Bobby Douglass, 36
Paul McDonald, 24
Tim Tebow, 17
Cade McNown, 16
Matt Leinart, 15
Chris Simms, 12

Seven different left-handed QBs were first round selections in the NFL Draft. They were: Michael Vick, Steve Young, Matt Leinart, Frankie Albert, Cade McNown, Todd Marinovich and Tim Tebow.

All total, 27 left-handed quarterbacks have thrown for a TD in the league’s history. Steve Young holds the mark for most TD passes by a left-handed QB in a season with 36 in 1998.

Here are the answers to the above trivia questions:

  • Esiason has started the most games with 173.
  • Young has the highest Passer Rating with a career mark of 96.8.
  • Stabler has the most wins with 96.

In addition: Young has the highest career pass completions rate for a lefty with 64.3 percent; Esiason has the most passing yards with 37,920; Stabler has the most career interceptions for a lefty with 222.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

99 Stats Until Kickoff: (#26) Tony Romo’s great game in Dallas’ season opener was no surprise

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

English: Tony Romo - 2009 - Dallas Cowboys vs....

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The fact that Tony Romo had three touchdowns, 307 yards passing and a Passer Rating of 129.5 in the Cowboys 24-17 season-opening win in 2012 over the New York Giants should not have come as a surprise to NFL enthusiasts and Dallas fans. In his previous five season-opening games, Romo had a Passer Rating over 100 in four of those five games with a high of 140.6 in 2009.

From 1960-2012, there were 149 times when a quarterback had a Passer Rating of 120 or more in his team’s first game of the season (minimum of 10 passes attempted to qualify). Teams won 128, lost 19, with two ties in those games (a .866 winning percentage).

Last season, seven QBs had a Passer Rating of 120 or more in the NFL’s opening week. They were:

Robert Griffin, III, Washington, 139.9 (vs. New Orleans)

Matt Ryan, Atlanta, 136.4 (vs. Kansas City)

Tony Romo, Dallas, 129.5 (vs. New York Giants)

Peyton Manning, Denver, 129.2 (vs. Pittsburgh)
Joe Flacco, Baltimore, 128.4 (vs. Cincinnati)
Alex Smith, San Francisco, 125.6 (vs. Green Bay)
Mark Sanchez, New York Jets, 123.4 (vs. Buffalo)

Following are the NFL quarterbacks who have had the most season-opening games with a Passer Rating of 120 or higher (1960-2011). With his 129.5 Passer Rating in last year’s Opening Game contest, Romo became the 11th QB since 1960 to have three or more season-opening games with a 120 or higher Passer Rating.

Season-opening games with 120+ rating, quarterbacks

Four: Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Dan Fouts, Dan Marino

Three: Terry Bradshaw, Tom Brady, Len Dawson, Jay Fiedler, Chad Pennington, Fran Tarkenton, Tony Romo

Four quarterbacks had a perfect Passer Rating of 158.3 in their team’s first game of the year. The last time it happened was in 2005 when Ben Roethlisberger had a 158.3 Passer Rating in Pittsburgh’s season-opening game against the Tennessee Titans. Roethlisberger was 9-for-11 for 218 yards and two touchdowns in that game.

Here are the quarterbacks that have had the highest Passer Rating on the NFL’s opening weekend since 1960:

Passer Rating, Quarterback, Season

158.3: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh (2005); Dick Shiner, Atlanta (1973); Daryle Lamonica, Oakland (1972); Len Dawson, Kansas City (1963)

157.6: Phil Simms, NY Giants (1984)

157.1: Dan Fouts, San Diego (1981)

156.6: Steve Bono, Seattle (1995)

153.3: Craig Morton, Dallas (1971)

152.1: John Brodie, San Francisco, 1965)

151.8: Don Meredith, Dallas (1968)

151.4: Eddie LeBaron, Dallas (1961)

151.1: Len Dawson, Kansas City (1966)

150.4: Dan Marino, Miami (1984)

Note: There have been five quarterbacks who had a Passer Rating of 0.0 in an opening game since 1960. They were: Al Dorow (in 1962 with Buffalo), Earl Morrall (in 1965 with the N.Y. Giants), James Harris (in 1975 with the L.A. Rams), Jim Plunkett (in 1977 with San Francisco) and Joe Ferguson (in 1978 with Buffalo). The last QB to have a Passer Rating under 20.0 in an opening game of the season happened in 2012: Cleveland’s Brandon Weeden, in his NFL debut with the Browns against Philadelphia, completed only 12 of 35 passes for 118 yards with four interceptions and no TDs. His Passer Rating for that game was 5.1.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

99 Stats Until Kickoff: (#25) QB success a key to NFL playoff victories

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

Rookie # 5 Joe Flacco in Ravens Training Camp ...

Joe Flacco (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

You don’t have to be a football expert to know that having a quarterback at the top of his game can go a long ways to leading a team to a successful season. In fact, many teams in the past have seen their QB single-handedly lead their team to success in a season.

Case in point: One of the indicators of QB success has been the Passer Rating. The value of this formula has been enthusiastically debated, but for the sake of this blog, let’s assume that Passer Rating is a valuable tool to evaluating NFL quarterbacks. Since 1966, the start of the Super Bowl era, there has been 226 quarterbacks who have had a Passer Rating of 100.0 or higher in a playoff game. Of those 226 games, the QB’s team has won 197 of those games, a winning percentage of .872. You can certainly make the point that a good QB performance (100.0 or better) in a playoff game will lead to victory and advancement in the post-season.

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers on January 5, 2013 in a Wild Card round game versus Minnesota, became the 15th QB since 1966 to have five or more playoff games with a 100.0 or higher Passer Rating. Rodgers’ Passer Rating was 104.9 in the Pack’s win over the Vikings.

Baltimore’s Joe Flacco became the 16th QB to have five or more playoff games with a 100.0 or higher Passer Rating when he turned the trick in all four of his playoff games this past season. Flacco’s Passer Rating in the four playoff games last season was: 125.6 against Indianapolis, 116.2 against Denver, 106.2 against New England, and 124.2 against San Francisco in the Super Bowl.

Here’s a look at the 16 QB’s since 1966 that have had five or more playoff games with a Passer Rating of 100 or higher.

Playoff games with 100-plus Passer Rating (since 1966), QBs
12: Joe Montana
10: Brett Favre
9: Troy Aikman
8: Tom Brady
7: Terry Bradshaw
6: Roger Staubach
5: Drew Brees, Jake Delhomme, John Elway, Joe Flacco, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Aaron Rodgers, Ken Stabler, Steve Young

Here’s a few more stats regarding Passer Rating in the playoffs:

* Since 2000, there have been 84 playoff games where a QB had a Passer Rating of 100.0 or higher. Those teams have won 70 of the 84 games, a winning percentage of .833.

* Only two quarterbacks since 1966 have had a Passer Rating of 100 or higher and lost two playoff games: Joe Montana and Warren Moon.

Let’s look at the other end of the scale… QBs that had terrible games, a Passer Rating under 50 in a playoff game. Since 1966, there have been 192 playoff games where the QB had a Passer Rating under 50 in that game. Those teams have won only 24 of the 192 games, a winning percentage of only .125.

The last quarterback to win a playoff game with a Passer Rating under 50 was Ben Roethlisberger. On January 23, 2011 in the Steelers 24-19 win over the New York Jets, Roethlisberger had a Passer Rating of 35.5.

Five quarterbacks have had four or more playoff games with a Passer Rating under 50. Craig Morton tops the list with five such games. Mark Brunell, Pat Haden, Ron Jaworski and Jim Kelly each had four.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp