Tag Archives: Philadelphia Phillies

Would a 100-win season guarantee a World Series trip for Nationals?

Washington Nationals

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

The Washington Nationals top the majors with 77 wins (through games of August 22). They are 30 games over .500 and just need to go 23-15 to finish with 100 wins this season. They are currently on pace to win 101 games this season.

In looking at the history of major league baseball, how “magical” has the 100-win season been for teams? Better stated, does a 100 or more win season equate to success in the post-season? Let’s take a look back to 1903 when MLB had its first World Series.

*     Since 1903, there have been 93 teams that won 100 or more games in a season. The last 100-win team was last season when the Phillies went 102-60.

*     Of those 93, 62 went on to the World Series that year. Thirty-four 100-win (or more) teams won the World Series that same season.

*     In 1969, MLB went to two divisions in each league. From 1903-68, 47 teams had 100 or more wins in a season. Of those 47, 24 won the World Series that year. From 1969 to 2011, 46 teams won 100 or more games in a season; only ten of those 45 won the World Series that year.

*     Since 1980, 31 teams have won 100 or more games. Four won the World Series, seven lost in the World Series, eight lost in the league championship series, nine lost in the league divisional series, and two teams (San Francisco 103 wins in 1993 and Baltimore 100 wins in 1980) did not even make the playoffs in the year they won 100 or more games.

*     Since 2000, 14 teams have won 100 or more games. Only one team won the World Series, two lost in the World Series, three lost in the league championship series and eight lost in the league divisional series.

Following are the franchises that have won 100 or more games in the most seasons.

Team                             100 or more win seasons

New York Yankees                               19

Oakland/Philadelphia A’s                  10

St. Louis Cardinals                                8

San Francisco/NY Giants                     7

Atlanta/Milwaukee/Boston Braves   6

Did you know? These current franchises have never had a season with 100 or more wins: Colorado, Florida, Milwaukee, San Diego, Washington, Tampa Bay, Texas and Toronto. Will the Nationals come off this list?

Here’s a quick trivia question: Can you name the last team to win 100 or more games in a season and win the World Series that year?

The New York Yankees won 103 games in 2009 and won the World Series that season. Prior to that, the 1998 New York Yankees won 114 games and the title. The last National League team to win 100 or more games in a season and the World Series that year were the 1986 Mets who won 108 games.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @StatsonTapp

Brewers dangerously close to challenging record for one-year decline

Logo cap of Milwaukee Brewers

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published daily that focuses on stats that go beyond the numbers.

We’re not even to the midway point of the 2012 season, but that won’t prevent us from trying to analyze the 2012 season and what is going wrong with the Brewers.

Obviously the team has not played up to its capabilities (and the expectations that people had for them based on last year’s playoff run). The decline in play can be traced to several factors: the free agency loss of Prince Fielder, the season-long slump of Rickie Weeks, the slow start of free agent Aramis Ramirez, an inconsistent bullpen, and injuries to three Opening-Day starters (Lucroy, Gonzalez and Gamel). We can only hope that Shaun Marcum missing a turn in the rotation due to tightness in his elbow is not more than a one-time issue.

The season is obviously not over, and with 95 games left on the schedule the Brewers certainly have time to make up the seven-and-half game deficit they face in the NL Central. They have yet to string together a long streak of victories (the longest win streak this season has only been four games) and have been fortunate to not have a losing streak longer than four games.

That having all been said, there are still concerns from the Brewer faithful. The team has a 31-36 record (.463 winning percentage). When you compare it to the .593 winning percentage of last season, that is a .130 decline over last year. If the season ended today, that would be the second largest one-season decline in Brewers history.

Here’s a look at the largest one-season declines in team history.

Greatest one-year decline in win pct. in Brewers history

1992 (.568) to 1993 (.426)     .142 decline

1983 (.537) to 1984 (.416)     .121 decline

2001 (.420) to 2002 (.346)     .074 decline

2008 (.556) to 2009 (.494)     .062 decline

1979 (.590) to 1980 (.531)     .059 decline

Looking at each of the five biggest declines above, a few of them involved managerial changes. It’s doubtful that ownership with make a change in managers, but it is interesting to note that drops of this magnitude do signal changes.

The Brewers .130 point drop in their winning percentage over last year is not the largest drop in the majors. In fact, the Philadelphia Phillies have seen a much larger decline in their winning percentage over the 2011 season. The Phils, who won 63 percent of their games in 2011, are at .456, a decline of .174 percentage points.

Following are the biggest drops in winning percentage from last season (through games of June 18).

Team, 2011 win pct./2012 win pct, Difference

Philadelphia: .630/.456     .174 decline

Milwaukee: .593/.463     .130 decline

Detroit: .586/.485     .101 decline

Chicago Cubs: .438/.343     .095 decline

Arizona: .580/.493     .087 decline

San Diego: .438/.353     .085 decline

Colorado: .451/.385     .066 decline

Boston: .556/.500     .056 decline

St. Louis: .556/.507     .049 decline

It’s interesting to note that the four teams that played in the National League playoffs last year (Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Arizona and St. Louis) are each on the list above. Add in Detroit, which played in the American League playoffs in 2011, and we have five of the eight playoffs teams from last year having a winning percentage decline of 049 or more points as of June 18.

Follow Jerry on Twitter @Statsontapp

SIX STATS you might not know about… Baseball’s League Championship Series

New York Yankees celebrate after 2009 American...

Image via Wikipedia

“SIX STATS…” is a bonus feature of Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ and is published every Friday.

1. In the 25 years of the seven-game League Championship Series (50 different series; 25 in the A.L. and 25 in the N.L.), there has been a four-game sweep only five times. The series has gone five games 14 times; six games 17 times; and the full seven-game series 14 times.

2. The last team to win back-to-back LCS was the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008 and 2009. The last A.L. team to win back-to-back LCS? The New York Yankees who won four straight LCS from 1998 to 2001. (The Texas Rangers have a chance to repeat if they win this year’s A.L. LCS.) The last team to lose back-to-back LCS were the L.A. Dodgers, who lost to the Phils in 2008 and 2009. The last A.L. team to lose back-to-back LCS? The Seattle Mariners who lost to the Yanks in 2000 and 2001.

3. The Wild Card has been a part of postseason baseball since 1995. In those 16 playoffs, the Wild Card team has made it to the LCS nine times in the American League and eight times in the National League.

4. The Washington Nationals have the longest drought to the LCS. The last time the Nationals franchise played in an LCS was the National League LCS in 1981 when they were the Montreal Expos. Seven other teams have not played in an LCS in this century: Milwaukee (last appearance 1982), Kansas City (1985), Pittsburgh (1992), Toronto (1993), Cincinnati (1995), Baltimore (1997), San Diego (1998).

5. The Yankees have played in the most LCS (since it was instituted in 1969) with 14. Oakland and Atlanta have each played in 11; Baltimore, Boston, L.A. Dodgers, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and St. Louis have played in nine.

6. Not surprisingly the Yankees have also won the most LCS with 11. Pittsburgh has lost the most LCS, 7.

Want a pennant? Get a closer!

own work

Image via Wikipedia

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Sunday with bonus “SIX STATS…” posting every Friday

Statistically-speaking, what does a team need to do to win a pennant? While there is no definitive answer, here is some food for thought: Taking 18 different team statistical categories, in what team stats did that season’s pennant winners lead the league the year they played in the World Series? Using the last 25 major league seasons (50 pennants) when a World Series was played, here are the results:

Pennant winner led league in:                                       Times

Team Saves                                                                16 (11 times AL; 5 times NL)

Lowest team ERA                                                     15 (9 times AL; 6 times NL)

Highest team fielding percentage                         11 (3 times AL; 8 times NL)

Highest team batting average                                11 (6 times AL; 5 times NL)

Highest team slugging percentage                        11 (5 times AL; 6 times NL)

Highest team on-base percentage                         10 (5 times AL; 5 times NL)

Most team runs scored                                              9 (4 times AL; 5 times NL)

Most team complete games                                      9 (2 times AL; 7 times NL)

Most team walks (batting)                                        9 (4 times AL; 5 times NL)

Most team hits                                                            8 (4 times AL; 4 times NL)

Most team strikeouts (pitching)                              6 (2 times AL; 4 times NL)

Most team stolen bases                                             6 (3 times AL; 3 times NL)

Fewest errors (defensive)                                         6 (1 time AL; 5 times NL)

Most team home runs                                               5 (2 times AL; 3 times NL)

Most team doubles                                                    5 (3 times AL; 2 times NL)

Fewest team walks (pitching)                                 5 (3 times AL; 2 times NL)

Most team triples                                                                             0

Most double plays (defensive)                                                      0

WE INTERRUPT THIS BLOG FOR A TRIVIA QUESTION: Can you name the last time the AL team leader in saves played against the NL team leader in saves in the World Series? Hint: The team leaders in saves for the two teams were Dennis Eckersley and Jay Howell.

Now that we know the numbers from the past 25 World Series, can we make a prediction as to who will be the opponents in this year’s World Series? In the American League, the most dominant factor was that 11 of the past 25 pennant winners led the AL in most team saves. This year’s leader as of Sept. 3? The Detroit Tigers. In the National League, the most dominant factor was the team with the highest team fielding percentage. The leader as of Sept. 3? The Philadelphia Phillies. Is there a Tigers-Phillies World Series on the horizon this year? Stay tuned.

TRIVIA ANSWER: The last time the AL and NL team leaders in saves faced off in the World Series was in 1988 when the Oakland A’s and Los Angeles Dodgers squared off in the Fall Classic.

100+ win seasons: A guaranteed trip to the World Series?

Phillies logo

Image via Wikipedia

Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Sunday with a bonus posting “SIX STATS…” published every Friday.

The Philadelphia Phillies top the majors with 81 wins (as of August 21). They are 38 games over .500 and just need to go 19-19 to finish with 100 wins this season. There are a couple other teams that may challenge the 100-win mark this season: Boston and the New York Yankees, but they may have a little more of a challenge to reach 100 wins.

In looking at the history of major league baseball, how “magical” has the 100-win season been for teams? Better stated, does a 100 or more win season equate to success in the post-season? Let’s take a look back to 1903 when MLB had its first World Series.

*     Since 1903, there have been 92 teams that won 100 or more games in a season.

*     Of those 92, 62 went on to the World Series that year. Thirty-four 100-win (or more) teams won the World Series that same season.

*     In 1969, MLB went to two divisions in each league. From 1903-68, 47 teams had 100 or more wins in a season. Of those 47, 24 won the World Series that year. From 1969 to 2010, 45 teams won 100 or more games in a season; only ten of those 45 won the World Series that year.

*     Since 1980, 30 teams have won 100 or more games. Four won the World Series, seven lost in the World Series, eight lost in the league championship series, nine lost in the league divisional series, and two teams (San Francisco 103 wins in 1993 and Baltimore 100 wins in 1980) did not even make the playoffs in the year they won 100 or more games.

(WE INTERRUPT THIS BLOG FOR A TRIVIA QUESTION: Name the last team to win 100 or more games in a season and win the World Series that year.)

*     Since 2000, 13 teams have won 100 or more games. Only one team won the World Series, two lost in the World Series, three lost in the league championship series and seven lost in the league divisional series.

Following are the franchises that have won 100 or more games in the most seasons.

Team                             100 or more win seasons

New York Yankees                               19

Oakland/Philadelphia A’s                  10

St. Louis Cardinals                                8

San Francisco/NY Giants                     7

Atlanta/Milwaukee/Boston Braves   6

Did you know? These current franchises have never had a season with 100 or more wins: Colorado, Florida, Milwaukee, San Diego, Washington, Tampa Bay, Texas and Toronto.

TRIVIA ANSWER: The New York Yankees won 103 games in 2009 and won the World Series that season. Prior to that, the 1998 New York Yankees won 114 games and the title. The last National League team to win 100 or more games in a season and the World Series that year were the 1986 Mets who won 108 games.