Tag Archives: Pittsburgh Steelers

Chances of winning an NFL game with four-plus turnovers? One in five!

Houston Texans' Arian Foster fumbles while bei...

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Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a sports statistics blog published with a focus on stats that go beyond the numbers.

We can all agree that committing four or more turnovers in a game will probably not lead a team to victory, right? According to research conducted on the Pro-Football-Reference.com website, there have been 3,301 times since 1970 (the AFL-NFL merger) when a team committed four or more turnovers in a game. In those 3,301 games, the team that had four-plus turnovers won 651, lost 2,634 and there were 16 ties. That puts the winning percentage of a team committing four-plus turnovers in a game at .200 (a one-in-five chance that an NFL team will win if they lose the ball four or more times in a game).

It’s interesting to note the .200 winning percentage number because this year, 2013, there have been 15 times when a team had four-plus turnovers; three teams won, 12 lost. That’s a .200 winning percentage for 2013. The three teams that won games when they had four-plus turnovers this year? Chicago, Cincinnati and Cleveland.

If we expand the parameters a bit and look at the numbers going back to 2010, there have been 156 games when a team had four-plus turnovers. Teams are 20-136 in such games, a .128 winning percentage. Following are the teams that have won the most games when they committed four-plus turnovers.

Most wins (2010-2013) in games with four or more turnovers
3: Chicago, Pittsburgh
2: New York Giants
1: Arizona, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Green Bay, Houston, Jacksonville, Kansas City, Minnesota, New England, New York Jets, Tennessee

One final note: If we go back to 1970, only three teams have won 30% or more of their games when they had four-plus turnovers in a game. Leading the list are the Raiders who have a .357 winning percentage in games when they commit four-plus turnovers. They are followed by the Steelers (.324) and Texans (.308).

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99 Stats Until Kickoff (#59) Do NFL teams have better records when they play in their own time zone?

List of current National Football League stadiums

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From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

Periodically you will hear football commentators talk about a team on the east coast taking a road trip to the west coast to play a foe and how the travel may affect their performance (or vice versa).

To see if there is any significant difference between teams playing in their own time zone versus traveling to other time zones to play, I looked at the last five seasons in the NFL and tracked how well teams played within their own time zone and how well they played outside their time zone.

The findings? There is a difference. Case in point: Look below at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers, who play in an eastern time zone city, were 49-17 (a .742 winning percentage) in games they played in the eastern time zone. But when the Steelers had to travel out of their time zone, they were only 4-10 in those five years, a .286 winning percentage. That’s a difference of .456 percentage points. That difference was the largest of any team in this five-year analysis.

All total, of the 32 NFL teams, 26 played better in their own time zones versus playing outside their time zone. To quantify it, NFL teams in the last five season were 951-832-3 (.533 winning percentage) when they played in their own time zone and 327-446-1 (.423 winning percentage) when they played outside their time zone, a difference of .110 percentage points.

Following is a look at each NFL team and their win-loss record when they played games in their own time zone and their record outside their time zone in the last five seasons (2008-12).

EASTERN TIME ZONE       In time zone                Outside time zone                   Difference
Atlanta                                     45-17 .726                   11-7 .611                                 + .115
Baltimore                                46-20 .697                   8-6 .571                                   + .126
Buffalo                                    23-42 .354                   6-9 .400                                   –  .046
Carolina                                   27-34 .443                   8-11 .421                                 + .022
Cincinnati                                31-36-1 .463                6-6 .500                                   –  .037
Cleveland                                20-48 .294                   3-9 .250                                   + .044
Detroit                                     18-34 .346                   4-24 .143                                 + .203
Indianapolis                            37-23 .617                   12-8 .600                                 + .017
Jacksonville                             23-37 .383                   4-16 .200                                 + .183
Miami                                      31-33 .484                   7-9 .438                                   + .046
New England                          50-15 .769                   10-5 .667                                 + .102
New York Giants                    37-24 .607                   11-8 .579                                 + .028
New York Jets                         38-27 .585                   5-10 .333                                 + .252
Philadelphia                            35-26-1 .573                7-11 .389                                 + .184
Pittsburgh                                49-17 .742                   4-10 .286                                 + .456
Tampa Bay                              23-36 .390                   10-11 .476                               + .086
Washington                             24-40 .375                   9-7 .563                                   –  .188

CENTRAL TIME ZONE       In time zone                Outside time zone                   Difference
Chicago                                   31-24 .564                   14-11 .560                               + .004
Dallas                                      27-21 .563                   15-17 .469                               + .094
Green Bay                               40-16 .714                   13-11 .542                               + .172
Houston                                  31-19 .620                   14-16 .467                               + .153
Kansas City                             16-28 .364                   9-27 .250                                 + .114
Minnesota                               31-24 .564                   10-15 .400                               + .164
New Orleans                           34-15 .694                   18-13 .581                               + .113
St. Louis                                  11-35 .239                   8-25-1 .250                              –  .011
Tennessee                               29-22 .569                   13-16 .448                               + .121

MOUNTAIN TIME ZONE   In time zone                Outside time zone                   Difference
Arizona                                   24-16 .600                   13-27 .325                               + .275
Denver                                    21-20 .512                   20-19 .513                               –  .001

PACIFIC TIME ZONE         In time zone                Outside time zone                   Difference
Oakland                                  17-29 .370                   13-21 .382                               –  .012
San Diego                               29-17 .630                   16-18 .471                               + .159
San Francisco                         29-15-1 .656                16-19 .457                               + .199
Seattle                                     24-22 .522                   10-24 .294                               + .228

“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99

How many points does a team need to score to win an NFL playoff game?

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Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Sunday with a bonus “SIX STATS…” posting every Friday.

Looking at the 422 playoff games that have been played in the Super Bowl era (since 1966, and not including last night’s contests), here is a breakdown of win-loss records when teams scored a certain number of points.

Points                                                      Record

0-9 points                                                 3- 105  .028

10-19 points                                            62-196  .240

20-29 points                                         181-104   .635

30-39 points                                         128-16     .895

40-49 points                                           39-1       .975

50 points or more                                   9-0      1.000

Here’s a few more stats:

* The most frequent score in the playoffs has been 17 points, which has happened in 68 of the 422 playoff games since 1966. Next is 20 points, which has been scored by a team in 55 games.

* Teams that scored 25 or more points in a playoff game since 1966 have won 250 and lost 42 (a .856 winning percentage).

* Most points scored in a playoff game (since 1966) to lose a game is 45. Packers fans will remember that loss to the Arizona Cardinals in the first round of the 2009 playoffs.

* Teams were 65-301 (.178) when they scored under 20 points in a playoff game since ’66.

The 20 best “three-season” teams during the NFL’s Super Bowl era

Miami Dolphins helmet

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Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Sunday with a bonus “SIX STATS…” posting every Friday.

With each Green Bay Packers win this season, the conversation on sports radio gets deeper and deeper into “the best of all-time?” debate: If the Pack goes 16-0 and wins the Super Bowl, are they the best team ever? Some people have argued that one season does not a “best team ever” make.

Let me muddy the waters a bit…

What about looking at more than one season; say, three seasons. Who is the best team ever over a three-season period?

Well, here’s one person’s take on that question. Following is my list of the 20 best “three-season” teams in the NFL Super Bowl era (since 1966). The teams are listed with their regular season record during that three-year period and significant playoff feats.

Do you agree or disagree with the list? Let me know.

1. Miami Dolphins, 1971-73. Regular season record: 36-5-1 (.869)… Won two Super Bowls; lost one Super Bowl

2. Miami Dolphins, 1972-74. Regular season record: 37-5 (.881)… Won two Super Bowls

3. Green Bay Packers, 1965-67. Regular season record: 31-9-2 (.762)… Won two Super Bowls; won NFL Championship

4. Denver Broncos, 1996-98. Regular season record: 39-9 (.813)… Won two Super Bowls

5. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1974-76. Regular season record 32-9-1 (.774)… Won two Super Bowls; lost conference championship game

6. New England Patriots, 2003-2005. Regular season record 38-10 (.792)… Won two Super Bowls

7. Pittsburgh Steelers, 1973-75. Regular season record 32-9-1 (.792)… Won two Super Bowls

8. Oakland Raiders, 1974-76. Regular season record 36-6 (.857)… Won one Super Bowl; lost two conference championship games

9. Chicago Bears, 1985-87. Regular season record 40-7 (.851)… Won one Super Bowl

10. Washington Redskins, 1982-84. Regular season record 33-8 (.805)… Won one Super Bowl; lost one Super Bowl

11. Oakland Raiders, 1975-77. Regular season record 35-7 (.833)… Won one Super Bowl; lost two conference championship games

12. Dallas Cowboys, 1976-78. Regular season record 35-9 (.795)… Won one Super Bowl; lost one Super Bowl

13. Chicago Bears, 1984-86. Regular season record 39-9 (.813)… Won one Super Bowl; lost one conference championship

14. Indianapolis Colts, 2005-2007. Regular season record 39-9 (.813)… Won one Super Bowl

15. Dallas Cowboys, 1975-77. Regular season record 33-9 (.786)…Won one Super Bowl; lost one Super Bowl

16. Baltimore Colts, 1968-70. Regular season record 32-8-2 (.786)… Won one Super Bowl; lost one Super Bowl

17. Oakland Raiders, 1967-69. Regular season record 37-4-1 (.893)… Lost one Super Bowl

18. Minnesota Vikings, 1973-75. Regular season record 34-8 (.810)… Lost two Super Bowls

19. Minnesota Vikings, 1969-71. Regular season record 35-7 (.833)… Lost one Super Bowl

20. Minnesota Vikings, 1974-76. Regular season record 33-8-1 (.798)… Lost two Super Bowls

One game short of the Super Bowl

The San Francisco 49ers' Super Bowl XXIX troph...

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Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ is a biweekly blog published every Wednesday and Sunday with a bonus “SIX STATS…” posting every Friday.

Falling one game short of making the Super Bowl is a tremendous loss for any NFL team. Since the 1966 season when the Super Bowl made its debut, the Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders franchise has been the NFL team that has been disappointed the most when it comes to falling one game short of the big game. The Raiders have lost nine championship games, most during this timeframe.

Following are the NFL teams which have lost the most championship games since the 1966 season, thus missing out on an opportunity to play in the Super Bowl.

Team                                                 Championship Game losses since 1966 season

Oakland/L.A. Raiders                                                                9

Dallas Cowboys                                                                           7

Pittsburgh Steelers                                                                      7

San Francisco 49ers                                                                    7

St.Louis/L.A. Rams                                                                    6

Cleveland Browns                                                                        5

Minnesota Vikings                                                                      5

Philadelphia Eagles                                                                    4

Tennessee Titans/Houston Oilers                                           4

New York Jets                                                                              4

Chicago Bears                                                                              3

Indianapolis/Baltimore Colts                                                   3

San Diego Chargers                                                                    3