14 stats the Packers need to improve to win the NFC title game
The Packers will venture out to California to play the San Francisco 49ers for the second time this season. Less than two months ago, on November 24, the Pack lost to the 49ers 38-9 in their Week #12 game. To advance to the Super Bowl, Green Bay will need to do a lot of things differently this time against San Francisco.
Here’s a look at 14 stats from the first meeting between the two teams and how the Packers will need to reverse those numbers.
- San Francisco had a 10-0 lead at the end of the first quarter. The Packers cannot let the 49ers get off to a quick start like they did last game. Green Bay only let two opponents score 10 or more points in the first quarter all season (SF and Detroit on 10/14); they were 1-1 in those two games. They were 3-2 in games when they did not score in the first quarter and 10-1 in games where they did score in the first quarter. They were also 3-2 in games this season when they were behind after one quarter.
- Aaron Rodgers had only 104 yards passing. The 104 yards passing was the lowest of the year for ARod. The second lowest was 161 yards passing against the Chargers, another loss for the Packers in 2019. Green Bay is 0-8 in Rodgers’ career when he has less than 155 yards passing in a game and 1-11 when he has less than 170 yards passing in a game.
- Green Bay gave up five sacks in the contest. The 49ers five sacks against the Pack was tied for the most against the Packers in 2019. Green Bay is 5-17 since 2010 in games when they allow five or more sacks. Conversely, they are 9-2 since 2010 in games when they do not allow a sack in the contest.
- The Packers did not have a takeaway in the game. Green Bay was 1-3 this season when they did not have a takeaway… 12-0 in games when they had at least one takeaway. Since 2010, they are 6-26 in games when they do not have a takeaway… 96-30-2 since 2010 when they get at least one takeaway in a game.
- The Pack was 1-for-15 in third down attempts in the game. A third down conversion rate of 6.7% will not cut it in this game. The 1-for-15 on third down was the worst of the season for Green Bay. The Packers are 67-22 since 2010 in regular season games when they convert 40% or higher of their third down attempts. Last week against Seattle, the Packers converted on 9-of-14 third downs for 64.3%. That was the third highest third down conversion for the Packers in their history in a playoff game.
- Aaron Jones had 13 carries for 38 yards, a 2.9 average. Jones ended the 2019 season with a 4.6 yards per carry average. Green Bay was 9-0 this season when Jones had a per carry average above 4.0 in a game. They were 4-3 when it was below four yards per carry in a game.
- Davante Adams had seven catches, but for only 43 yards. In two of the three losses the Packers had this year, Adams had under 50 yards receiving. Green Bay is 24-11-1 in Adams’ career when he scores a TD.
- Green Bay had the ball 11 times in the first game, but no drive in that game started past their own 35 yardline. Field position will be a key. They can’t start every drive in their own territory.
- They had eight drives in the first half and did not score. In five of their eight drives in the first half, the Packers were three-and-out. Their longest drive of the first half was eight plays and 3:47. They will need to sustain drives and get first downs. For the season, Green Bay scored on 19 or the 23 drives that went 10 plays or longer.
- San Francisco scored on seven of their 11 drives in the game. Four of those scores came on drives that lasted four plays or less.
- Final Score, 38-9. Green Bay ended the year going 12-1 in games where they scored 20 or more points in a game. They were 0-3 in games where they allowed the opposition to score 26 or more points in the game.
- San Francisco had 112 yards rushing. In the three games the Packers lost this season, the opponents had more than 100 yards rushing in each of those contests.
- The Packers longest pass completion in the game was 15 yards. Rodgers completed a pass to Jamaal Williams for 15 yards for the longest pass of the game. The longest pass to a wide receiver was 14 yards to Adams.
- The longest play from scrimmage in the game was a 21-yard run by AllenLazard. The 21-yard run by Lazard was the longest play for the Packers. Is it possible that more trick plays need to be in the game plan?
Keys for a Packers win?
- A trick play or two will help.
- Keep the game a one-score game at halftime
- Aaron Rodgers cannot throw an interception
- The “O” line has to keep Rodgers on his feet; no more than two sacks
- Sustain drives; a third down conversion rate above 40%
- The running backs need to break a couple of long runs
- Davante Adams has to have a big game
- Rodgers two TD passes and 200-plus yards passing would be great
- The “D” needs to get a takeaway (or two)
- Mason Crosby cannot miss
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PACKERSTATS-Game #11-2019 season
Here are some of the numbers that helped define the Packers 37-8 road loss to the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday night, November 24.
- The loss in a Sunday night game was the fifth defeat in their last seven games on Sunday night. The Packers are 6-10 since 2014 in Sunday night games.
- Green Bay has now lost five of their last seven games against the 49ers, including losing three of their last four road contests against the Niners.
- This was the 19th game since 2000 that the Pack scored less than 10 points in a game. That’s the fourth fewest in the league, The Packers are 3-16 in those games. New England has the fewest games with less than 10 points since 2000 with 12. NFL teams are 43-1026-2 (a .041 winning percentage) since 2000 in games when they score less than 10 points.
- The Packers allowed 35 or more points for the 18th time since the 2010 season. The team is 6-12 in those games. In fact, the six wins is tied for the most (with New Orleans) wins by a team since 2010 in games where they allow 35 or more points. NFL teams are 45-530-2 (.080) since 2010 in games where they allow 35 or more points.
- Green Bay allowed San Francisco to put 10 points on the scoreboard in the first quarter. They are 11-27 (.289) since 2000 in games where they allow the opposition to score 10 or more points in the first quarter. They are 5-20 (.200) in road games since 2000 when the opponents tally 10 or more points in the first quarter.
- San Francisco had a 23-0 lead at halftime. Green Bay is now 6-17 (.230) since 2000 in games when they do not score in the first half… that includes being 1-10 in those games on the road.
- Aaron Rodgers yards per attempt in the game was 3.15. That is the lowest of his career in a game. The Packers are 0-8 in games when Rodgers’ yards per attempt is under 5.0 for a game.
- It was the 23rd game in Rodgers’ career that he was sacked five or more times. Green Bay is 5-18 (.217) in those games.
- The Packers were 1-for-15 in third down conversion attempts, 6.7%. That is the second lowest third down conversion percentage in a game since 1991. The lowest was on October 17, 1999 when Green Bay was 0-for-8 in third down plays against the Broncos. Green Bay has not won a game since 1991 when their third down conversion percentage was under 14% in a contest.
- Rodgers had 104 yards passing in the game. That was the sixth lowest in his career in a game he started. Green Bay is 1-11 in games when Rodgers starts and has less than 170 yards passing in the game.
- The Pack had 198 total yards in the game. NFL teams are 21-181 (.104) since 2010 in games when they have less than 200 total yards. Green Bay is 0-6 since ’10 in these games.
- The Packers had only 81 yards passing in the contest. It was the eighth game with less than 100 yards passing since 2000. The Packers are 2-6 in those games.
- Green Bay’s yards per play in the game was 2.83. That was only the fifth time since 1990 that the Packers offense had a yards per play average under three yards. The lowest since 1990 was 2.5 against the New England Patriots on November 19, 2006.
- The Pack “controlled” the ball with 35:16 Time of Possession (TOP) to San Francisco’s 24:44. Usually that’s good news for the Packers. They are now 18-4-1 in games since 2010 when they have a TOP of 35 minutes or more. In fact, NFL teams since 2010 are 575-159-10 (.780) when they have 35 minutes or more TOP in a game.
- This was only the sixth time in NFL history that a team had 35 or more minutes TOP and less than 200 total yards in the same game. The last time was in 2006 when Carolina had 41:47 TOP in a game versus Atlanta when they tallied only 194 total yards. The Packers also accomplished this rare feat in 1991 in a game versus Minnesota when they had 36:19 TOP and 188 total yards. The Pack won that game 27-7.
Packers idle during Week #11, but Colin Kaepernick will be throwing passes this weekend!
The Packers will finally get their bye weekend after starting the season 8-2 over the first 10 weeks of the season. While things may be quiet for most Packers fans this weekend, football fans have been tossed a little gridiron appetizer as the league will hold a workout for embattled QB Colin Kaepernick. The workout will take place Saturday in Atlanta.
Whether you are on the side of those who think Kaepernick should still be playing in the league or those who think he should not be in the NFL (or you could care less), Kaepernick did have six seasons in the league and led the 49ers to a Super Bowl appearance in 2013 after the 2012 season. He was in the league from 2011-16 playing in 69 games with 58 starts.
It will be interesting to see what transpires with this workout and if any team signs him for the remainder of the season. For what it’s worth, and with no pretense in support or against Kaepernick’s journey to get back into the NFL, here are several stats you may not know about Kaepernick’s career.
- Kaepernick had a career 28-30 record (.483 winning percentage) in the 58 starts in his career. He was 17-6 in his first 23 starts over the 2012 and 2013 season, but in the three years after his Super Bowl appearance, he went 11-24 in his last 35 starts, including 3-16 in 2015 and 2016.
- He had 72 career TD and 30 career interceptions. Of the 94 QBs who had 100 or more passing attempts from 2011-16, his TD percentage rate of 4.3 ranked 30th of 94 quarterbacks. His 1.8 interception rate ranked as the 10th lowest of the 94 QBs that qualified for this stat during his career.
- Of the 184 quarterbacks who have attempted 1,600 or more career regular season passes, Kaepernick’s completion rate of 59.8% ranks 51st.
- Kaepernick has a career Passer Rating of 88.9. Of the 193 NFL QBs who have started 50 or more career games and have attempted 500 or more career passes, Colin’s 88.9 PR ranks 21st .
- In Kaep’s last two seasons in the NFL, 2015-16, his completion percentage was 59%, he had 22 TD passes and nine interceptions, and had a Passer Rating of 85.5.
- After reaching the Super Bowl with the 49ers after the 2012 campaign, the 49ers reached the NFC Conference Championship Game the following year losing to the Seattle Seahawks. After that 2014 playoff run, Kaepernick and the 49ers did not play a post-season game during the remainder of Kaepernick’s career. He had 33 starts for the 49ers from 2014-16 with the team going 15-33.
- Kaepernick’s 72 career TD passes ranked tied for 23rd of all QBs who played during the Kaepernick-era (2011-16)… his 7.3 career yards per pass attempt ranked 29th of all QBs… his 88.9 Passer Rating from 2011-16 ranked 22nd of all QBs during that timeframe.
- When Kaepernick had a game with a Passer Rating of 108 or above in his career, the 49ers were 15-1. When his Passer Rating was below 80.0 in a game, San Francisco was only 2-16.
- His last NFL start was on January 1, 2017 against the Seattle Seahawks. The 49ers lost 25-23. He had a 122.3 Passer Rating in his last NFL game, with was the seventh best PR of his career, and he completed 17 of 22 passes in the contest, 77.3%. That completion rate in the game was the third-highest of his career.
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9 stats you may not know about NFL teams that start the season 5-0
There are two undefeated teams remaining in the NFL: The 6-0 New England Patriots who started the 2019 season with their sixth straight win this season over the New York Giants last Thursday; and the surprising San Francisco 49ers who upped their record to 5-0 with a big divisional win over one of last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Los Angeles Rams, on Sunday.
Not counting this year’s Patriots and 49ers, there have been 53 teams that have started an NFL season 5-0 since 1990. Here are nine stats you may not know about the 53 teams that started the season 5-0 since 1990.
- There were two teams that started 5-0 in 2018 (the Los Angeles Rams and the Kansas City Chiefs). Since 1990, the most teams that started a season 5-0 were six in 2015. No teams started the year 5-0 in 2014, 2010, 2002, 1996 and 1995.
- Nine teams that started the season 5-0 went on to win the Super Bowl: New York Giants(1990), Washington (1991), Denver (1997), Denver (1998), St. Louis Rams (1999), New England (2004), Indianapolis (2006), New Orleans (2009), Denver (2015). Eleven teams that started 5-0 since 1990 went on to lose in the Super Bowl that year. That means that of the 53 teams that started the season 5-0 since 1990, 20 (37.7%) went on to play in the Super Bowl that season.
- There have been five Super Bowls since 1990 that featured two teams that started the season 5-0: 1991 (Buffalo and Washington), 2004 (New England and Philadelphia), 2006 (Chicago and Indianapolis), 2009 (Indianapolis and New Orleans) and 2015 (Carolina and Denver). Could this year’s Super Bowl feature two teams that started the year, New England and San Francisco?
- Forty-seven of the 53 (88.7%) teams that started the season 5-0 since 1990 eventually made the playoffs that season.
- Forty-seven of the 53 (88.7%) teams that started the season 5-0 since 1990 won 10 or more games that season. One team finished 9-7, five teams finished the year 8-8.
- Twenty-one of the 53 teams (39.6%) that started the season 5-0 since 1990 won at least one playoff game that year.
- Twenty-four of the 53 teams (45.3%) that started the season 5-0 since 1990 won 13 or more games that season.
- Three teams (Denver, Indianapolis and Minnesota) started a season 5-0 five times since 1990, tied for most in the league. Three teams (Kansas City, New England and New Orleans) each started four seasons 5-0 since 1990.
- Two franchises (Indianapolis and the St. Louis Rams) each had three consecutive seasons where they started 5-0 since1990. The Colts did it in 2005, 2006 and 2007, while the Rams did in 1999, 2000 and 2001.
Bonus: In case you were wondering, here is the breakdown of how many teams made the playoffs from 1990-2018 after starting the season 0-5, 1-4, 2-3, 3-2, 4-1 and 5-0.
Started season 0-5… Teams-58, Made playoffs-0 (0%)
Started season 1-4… Teams-142, Made playoffs-10 (7%)
Started season 2-3… Teams-242, Made playoffs-53 (21.9%)
Started season 3-2… Teams-247, Made playoffs-123 (49.8%)
Started season 4-1… Teams-150, Made playoffs-114 (76%)
Started season 5-0… Teams 53, Made playoffs-47 (88.7%)
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From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
In the 47-year history of the Super Bowl, we have had 48 players (there were co-MVPs in 1978) who were selected as the MVP of the game. Joe Montana, quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers won three of those awards, most in the game’s history. Four other players won the award twice: Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Tom Brady and Eli Manning, all QBs.
As we take a look at the list of Super Bowl MVPs, several interesting stats evolve:
First, quarterbacks seem to be the primary focus of the Super Bowl MVP award. Of the 48 MVPs, 26 have been QBs. The 2013 Super Bowl as no exception as Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was chosen as the game’s MVP.
Here’s a position look at the MVPs.
Super Bowl MVP Awards, position, (average age of those MVPs)
26: Quarterbacks (30.0)
8: Defensive players (26.6)
7: Running backs (27.0)
6: Wide receivers (26.5)
1: Kick returners (26.0)
Secondly, we notice that when it comes to the age of the player named the game’s MVP, most are in their 20′s. In fact, of the 48 MVPs, 30 were in their 20′s, 18 were in their 30′s. Here’s a look at the number of MVPs within each age. The age with the most MVPs is 25 with seven.
Age, Super Bowl MVP Awards
Age 23: Two
Age 24: Five
Age 25: Seven
Age 26: Five
Age 27: Five
Age 28: Three
Age 29: Three
Age 30: Two
Age 31: Three
Age 32: Four
Age 33: Four
Age 34: Four
Age 38: One
* The oldest Super Bowl MVP was Denver’s John Elway in 1999. He was 38 years old.
* The youngest Super Bowl MVP was Raiders running back Marcus Allen who was 23. Pittsburgh receiver Lynn Swann was also 23 when he won his Super Bowl MVP in 1976, but Allen beat him by 15 days; Allen was 23 and 302 days, Swann was 23 and 317 days.
* Of the 18 players who were in their 30′s when they won the Super Bowl MVP, 14 of them were quarterbacks.
* Dallas’ Randy White, who shared MVP honors with teammate Harvey Martin in the 1978 game, is the only MVP to win his award on his birthday. He won his MVP on his 25th birthday.
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.