NFL playoff seeds: Does it really matter?
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
With one week left in the 2013 regular season, there is still a lot of uncertainty about which teams will make the playoffs and which seed they have.
Back in 1990, the NFL went to a 12-team playoff system with six teams making the post-season from the two conferences; each conference is seeded from the top seed to the #6 seed. So with all this jockeying for playoff position, the question becomes… does it really matter what seed a team is in the playoffs? The obvious answer is “Yes.” To back up that statement, let’s look at how well each seed has done in the playoffs since 1990 when the current 12-team playoff format was put in place.
Division Seed 1990-99 2000-12 Total
AFC #1 11-9 13-12 24-21 .533
AFC #2 11-10 16-10 27-20 .574
AFC #3 10-10 14-12 24-22 .522
AFC #4 15-9 14-11 29-20 .592
AFC #5 4-10 7-13 11-23 .324
AFC #6 1-10 9-12 10-22 .313
NFC #1 22-4 16-12 38-16 .704
NFC #2 15-8 12-12 27-20 .574
NFC #3 5-10 11-13 16-23 .410
NFC #4 7-10 14-12 21-22 .488
NFC #5 3-10 8-12 11-22 .333
NFC #6 6-10 9-12 15-22 .405
Here’s a look at the win-loss records if we combine the seeds for the two conferences.
AFC/NFC combined W-L, Pct
#1 Seed 62-37 .626
#2 Seed 54-40 .574
#3 Seed 40-45 .471
#4 Seed 50-42 .543
#5 Seed 22-45 .328
#6 Seed 25-44 .362
Did you know? Thirty-four of the 46 Super Bowl teams since 1990 have either been a #1 or #2 seed. The NFC #1 seed has won seven Super Bowls since 1990, most during that time. The AFC #2, NFC #2 and AFC #4 have each won three during that time. The NFC #1 seed has played in 12 of the 21 Super Bowls since 1990.
Did you know? (Part 2) The AFC #5 seed and the NFC #3 seed have not won a Super Bowl since 1990; in fact, an AFC #5 seed has not appeared in the Super Bowl since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#63) NFL Playoff Seeds: Does it really matter… part 2
From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
In the previous item we looked at the playoff records of each of the seeds in both the AFC and NFC, and the combined records of the seeds since 1990.
In this item we look at individual seed match-ups and see how well seeds have done when they faced certain seeds. The following reflect records of AFC and NFC playoff games since 1990 (the last 23 post seasons).
#1 Seed vs. #2 Seed… #1 Seed is 14-9
#1 Seed vs. #3 Seed… #1 Seed is 5-1
#1 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #1 Seed is 15-7
#1 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #1 Seed is 8-3
#1 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #1 Seed is 11-5
#2 Seed vs. #3 Seed… #2 Seed is 23-7
#2 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #2 Seed is 8-7
#2 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #2 Seed is 6-3
#2 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #2 Seed is 2-2
#3 Seed vs. #4 Seed… #3 Seed is 1-0
#3 Seed vs. #5 Seed… No games
#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #3 Seed is 30-16
#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed… #4 Seed is 31-15
#4 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #4 Seed is 1-0
#5 Seed vs. #6 Seed… No games
Did you know? Of the 230 playoff games in the last 23 years (excluding the Super Bowl games) the team with the higher seed has won 155 and lost 75 (a .674 winning percentage).
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
99 Stats Until Kickoff (#62) NFL playoff seeds: Does it really matter?
From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Back in 1990, the NFL went to a 12-team playoff system with six teams making the post-season from the two conferences; each conference is seeded from the top seed to the #6 seed. So with all this jockeying for playoff position, the question becomes… does it really matter what seed a team is in the playoffs? The obvious answer is “Yes.”
To back up that statement, let’s look at how well each seed has done in the playoffs since 1990 when the current 12-team playoff format was put in place.
Division Seed 1990-99 2000-12 Total
AFC #1 11-9 13-12 24-21 .533
AFC #2 11-10 16-10 27-20 .574
AFC #3 10-10 14-12 24-22 .522
AFC #4 15-9 14-11 29-20 .592
AFC #5 4-10 7-13 11-23 .324
AFC #6 1-10 9-12 10-22 .313
NFC #1 22-4 16-12 38-16 .704
NFC #2 15-8 12-12 27-20 .574
NFC #3 5-10 11-13 16-23 .410
NFC #4 7-10 14-12 21-22 .488
NFC #5 3-10 8-12 11-22 .333
NFC #6 6-10 9-12 15-22 .405
Here’s a look at the win-loss records if we combine the seeds for the two conferences.
AFC/NFC combined W-L, Pct
#1 Seed 62-37 .626
#2 Seed 54-40 .574
#3 Seed 40-45 .471
#4 Seed 50-42 .543
#5 Seed 22-45 .328
#6 Seed 25-44 .362
Did you know? Thirty-four of the 46 Super Bowl teams since 1990 have either been a #1 or #2 seed. The NFC #1 seed has won seven Super Bowls since 1990, most during that time. The AFC #2, NFC #2 and AFC #4 have each won three during that time. The NFC #1 seed has played in 12 of the 21 Super Bowls since 1990.
Did you know? (Part 2) The AFC #5 seed and the NFC #3 seed have not won a Super Bowl since 1990; in fact, an AFC #5 seed has not appeared in the Super Bowl since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990.
“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.
SIX STATS you might not know about… the NCAA men’s Final Four
SIX STATS is a bonus feature of Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’
Final Four (Photo credit: slack13)
1. Since 1985 when the NCAA went to a 64-team format for the tournament, 71 of the 112 (63.4%) teams in the Final Four were either a #1 or #2 seed. This year three of the four teams are either a #1 or #2 seed (Louisville as a #4 seed is the only exception). About 86% of the Final Four teams since 1985 have been a #1, #2, #3 or #4 seed. Since 1979 when the NCAA went to seeding all the teams, no teams that were seeded #10, #12, #13, #14, #15 or #16 have made it to the Final Four. Three #11 seeds have made it to the Final Four since 1979.
2. In the 54 Final Four semifinal games since 1979, the higher seed has won 26 and lost 15. On 13 occasions teams that were seeded the same faced off in the semis (such is the case on Saturday when two #2 seeds – Ohio State and Kansas – face off in one semifinal)
3. Thirty-two of the 54 (59%) Final Four semifinal games have been decided by nine points or less.
4. The teams that won their semifinal game by a closer margin has won the title 14 times and lost 10 (three times the title game opponents won their semifinal game by the same margin).
5. There have been 19 times when a team has played in back-to-back championship games. The last to do so was Butler in 2010 and 2011 (they lost both games). Prior to that it was Florida in 2006 and 2007 (they won both games).
6. The state of Missouri has hosted the most Final Fours with 13. Tied for second are New York and Kentucky with seven. They are followed by Texas, Indiana, and this year’s host, (New Orleans) Louisiana, with six.
SIX STATS you might not know about… Final Four teams (the seed history)
SIX STATS is a bonus feature of Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’
(Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Past history in the NCAA men’s Final Four is pointing to a Kentucky national championship. Here’s a look at some stats from the past 33 tournaments (in 1979 the NCAA went to seeding all the teams) and how team seeds have performed in the past.
1. A number one seed has won the NCAA men’s championship 20 times in the last 33 years. Since 1992 (the last 20 years) a #1 seed has won the tourney 14 times.
2. Kentucky is the only #1 seed in this year’s tournament. In the 11 times when there was only one #1 seed in the Final Four, that number one seed won the championship six times. This is the 31st time in the last 34 years of the tournament that at least one #1 seed has been in the Final Four.
3. This is the fifth time since 1979 that two #2 seeds are in the Final Four (1979, 1994, 1995, 2004). In the four previous times when two #2 seeds made the Final Four, one of those #2 seeds won the title (Michigan State in 1979 and Connecticut in 2004). Six #2 seeds have won the title since 1979, the last being Connecticut in 2004.
4. Louisville is the 12th #4 seed to make it to the Final Four since 1979. Only one #4 seed has ever won the championship: Arizona in 1997.
5. The lowest seeded team of the Final Four teams has won the tournament five times (Indiana as a #3 seed in 1981; North Carolina State as a #6 seed in 1983; Villanova as a #8 seed in 1985; Kansas as a #6 seed in 1988; and Arizona as a #4 seed in 1997).
6. This is only the second time since 1979 that two #2 seeds will face off in a Final Four semi-final game. This is the sixth time that a #1 seed will face a #4 seed in a Final Four semi-final. The #1 seed has won four of those five games.
Sports Stats 'on Tapp' 