Tag Archives: Super Bowl XLVIII

99 Stats Until Kickoff (#68) SIX STATS you might not know about… the NFL’s Wild Card Weekend

The NFL Green Bay Packers in the shotgun forma...

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

In 2002, the NFL realigned into four divisions in each conference. In addition, the playoffs were adjusted to include the four division winners and two wild card teams in each conference. This is the current playoff system in the NFL.

The first weekend of the NFL playoffs feature two wild card teams from the AFC and two from the NFC playing the division winners in their conference with the third and fourth best records of the four division champs. This first weekend is commonly referred to as “Wild Card Weekend” (WCW).

Let’s look at some stats from “Wild Card Weekend” since that 2002 realignment… a total of 44 games.

1. The home team holds a 26-18 (a .591 winning percentage) record in WCW play. The only two years since 2002 when the home teams won all four games the first weekend of the playoffs were in 2006 and 2011. Home teams are 7-1 in the last two years of the WCW.

2. Having a better record than your opponent on WCW doesn’t matter. Teams with a better record than the opposition on WCW are 19-17 (there have been eight games between teams with the same record).

3. Eighteen of the 44 Wild Card Weekend games since 2002 have been decided by eight points or less.

4. Teams that won the first weekend went on to win the next week 16 of 44 times. In 2008, three teams that won on WCW also won the following week, most of any year.

5. Teams that scored 30 or more points on WCW since 2002 have won 19 and lost four, an .826 winning percentage.

6. Eight teams that played on WCW since 2002 have made it to the Super Bowl: Carolina (2003), Pittsburgh (2005), Indianapolis (2006), New York Giants (2007), Arizona (2008), Green Bay (2010), New York Giants (2011) and Baltimore (2012). Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, the Giants (in both 2007 and 2011) Green Bay and Baltimore won the Super Bowl those years. The last three Super Bowl champs have come from teams that played on Wild Card Weekend.

“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.

99 Stats Until Kickoff (#63) NFL Playoff Seeds: Does it really matter… part 2

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

Created by Jason R Remy (Jayron32)

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In the previous item we looked at the playoff records of each of the seeds in both the AFC and NFC, and the combined records of the seeds since 1990.

In this item we look at individual seed match-ups and see how well seeds have done when they faced certain seeds. The following reflect records of AFC and NFC playoff games since 1990 (the last 23 post seasons).

#1 Seed vs. #2 Seed#1 Seed is 14-9

#1 Seed vs. #3 Seed#1 Seed is 5-1

#1 Seed vs. #4 Seed#1 Seed is 15-7

#1 Seed vs. #5 Seed#1 Seed is 8-3

#1 Seed vs. #6 Seed… #1 Seed is 11-5

#2 Seed vs. #3 Seed#2 Seed is 23-7

#2 Seed vs. #4 Seed#2 Seed is 8-7

#2 Seed vs. #5 Seed#2 Seed is 6-3

#2 Seed vs. #6 Seed#2 Seed is 2-2

#3 Seed vs. #4 Seed#3 Seed is 1-0

#3 Seed vs. #5 SeedNo games

#3 Seed vs. #6 Seed#3 Seed is 30-16

#4 Seed vs. #5 Seed#4 Seed is 31-15

#4 Seed vs. #6 Seed#4 Seed is 1-0

#5 Seed vs. #6 SeedNo games

Did you know? Of the 230 playoff games in the last 23 years (excluding the Super Bowl games) the team with the higher seed has won 155 and lost 75 (a .674 winning percentage).

“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.

99 Stats Until Kickoff (#62) NFL playoff seeds: Does it really matter?

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

Logo of the National Football League Playoffs,...

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Back in 1990, the NFL went to a 12-team playoff system with six teams making the post-season from the two conferences; each conference is seeded from the top seed to the #6 seed. So with all this jockeying for playoff position, the question becomes… does it really matter what seed a team is in the playoffs? The obvious answer is “Yes.”

To back up that statement, let’s look at how well each seed has done in the playoffs since 1990 when the current 12-team playoff format was put in place.

Division Seed             1990-99           2000-12           Total

AFC #1                       11-9                 13-12               24-21 .533

AFC #2                       11-10               16-10               27-20 .574

AFC #3                       10-10               14-12               24-22 .522

AFC #4                       15-9                 14-11               29-20 .592

AFC #5                       4-10                 7-13                 11-23 .324

AFC #6                       1-10                 9-12                 10-22 .313

NFC #1                       22-4                 16-12               38-16 .704

NFC #2                       15-8                 12-12               27-20 .574

NFC #3                       5-10                 11-13               16-23 .410

NFC #4                       7-10                 14-12               21-22 .488

NFC #5                       3-10                 8-12                 11-22 .333

NFC #6                       6-10                 9-12                 15-22 .405

Here’s a look at the win-loss records if we combine the seeds for the two conferences.

AFC/NFC combined W-L, Pct

#1 Seed 62-37 .626

#2 Seed 54-40 .574

#3 Seed 40-45 .471

#4 Seed 50-42 .543

#5 Seed 22-45 .328

#6 Seed 25-44 .362

Did you know? Thirty-four of the 46 Super Bowl teams since 1990 have either been a #1 or #2 seed. The NFC #1 seed has won seven Super Bowls since 1990, most during that time. The AFC #2, NFC #2 and AFC #4 have each won three during that time. The NFC #1 seed has played in 12 of the 21 Super Bowls since 1990.

Did you know? (Part 2) The AFC #5 seed and the NFC #3 seed have not won a Super Bowl since 1990; in fact, an AFC #5 seed has not appeared in the Super Bowl since the NFL went to the current playoff format in 1990.

“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99.

99 Stats Until Kickoff (#59) Do NFL teams have better records when they play in their own time zone?

List of current National Football League stadiums

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

Periodically you will hear football commentators talk about a team on the east coast taking a road trip to the west coast to play a foe and how the travel may affect their performance (or vice versa).

To see if there is any significant difference between teams playing in their own time zone versus traveling to other time zones to play, I looked at the last five seasons in the NFL and tracked how well teams played within their own time zone and how well they played outside their time zone.

The findings? There is a difference. Case in point: Look below at the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers, who play in an eastern time zone city, were 49-17 (a .742 winning percentage) in games they played in the eastern time zone. But when the Steelers had to travel out of their time zone, they were only 4-10 in those five years, a .286 winning percentage. That’s a difference of .456 percentage points. That difference was the largest of any team in this five-year analysis.

All total, of the 32 NFL teams, 26 played better in their own time zones versus playing outside their time zone. To quantify it, NFL teams in the last five season were 951-832-3 (.533 winning percentage) when they played in their own time zone and 327-446-1 (.423 winning percentage) when they played outside their time zone, a difference of .110 percentage points.

Following is a look at each NFL team and their win-loss record when they played games in their own time zone and their record outside their time zone in the last five seasons (2008-12).

EASTERN TIME ZONE       In time zone                Outside time zone                   Difference
Atlanta                                     45-17 .726                   11-7 .611                                 + .115
Baltimore                                46-20 .697                   8-6 .571                                   + .126
Buffalo                                    23-42 .354                   6-9 .400                                   –  .046
Carolina                                   27-34 .443                   8-11 .421                                 + .022
Cincinnati                                31-36-1 .463                6-6 .500                                   –  .037
Cleveland                                20-48 .294                   3-9 .250                                   + .044
Detroit                                     18-34 .346                   4-24 .143                                 + .203
Indianapolis                            37-23 .617                   12-8 .600                                 + .017
Jacksonville                             23-37 .383                   4-16 .200                                 + .183
Miami                                      31-33 .484                   7-9 .438                                   + .046
New England                          50-15 .769                   10-5 .667                                 + .102
New York Giants                    37-24 .607                   11-8 .579                                 + .028
New York Jets                         38-27 .585                   5-10 .333                                 + .252
Philadelphia                            35-26-1 .573                7-11 .389                                 + .184
Pittsburgh                                49-17 .742                   4-10 .286                                 + .456
Tampa Bay                              23-36 .390                   10-11 .476                               + .086
Washington                             24-40 .375                   9-7 .563                                   –  .188

CENTRAL TIME ZONE       In time zone                Outside time zone                   Difference
Chicago                                   31-24 .564                   14-11 .560                               + .004
Dallas                                      27-21 .563                   15-17 .469                               + .094
Green Bay                               40-16 .714                   13-11 .542                               + .172
Houston                                  31-19 .620                   14-16 .467                               + .153
Kansas City                             16-28 .364                   9-27 .250                                 + .114
Minnesota                               31-24 .564                   10-15 .400                               + .164
New Orleans                           34-15 .694                   18-13 .581                               + .113
St. Louis                                  11-35 .239                   8-25-1 .250                              –  .011
Tennessee                               29-22 .569                   13-16 .448                               + .121

MOUNTAIN TIME ZONE   In time zone                Outside time zone                   Difference
Arizona                                   24-16 .600                   13-27 .325                               + .275
Denver                                    21-20 .512                   20-19 .513                               –  .001

PACIFIC TIME ZONE         In time zone                Outside time zone                   Difference
Oakland                                  17-29 .370                   13-21 .382                               –  .012
San Diego                               29-17 .630                   16-18 .471                               + .159
San Francisco                         29-15-1 .656                16-19 .457                               + .199
Seattle                                     24-22 .522                   10-24 .294                               + .228

“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99

99 Stats Until Kickoff (#56) How many wins will get an NFL team in the playoffs?

From May 30 and every day until September 5… the start of the 2013 NFL season… Sports Stats ‘on Tapp’ will publish “99 Stats Until Kickoff” a daily dose of NFL stats that will get you ready for the 2013 NFL season.)

Logo of the National Football League Playoffs,...

(Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Since 1990, when the NFL went to six teams from each conference making the playoffs, there have been 276 teams that have played in the NFL playoffs. Here’s a breakdown of the number of regular season wins by each of those teams.

7 wins: 1 team… Seattle in 2010 (0.4 percent)
8 wins: 9 teams (3.3 percent)
9 wins: 42 teams (15.2 percent)
10 wins: 70 teams (25.4 percent)
11 wins: 58 wins (21.0 percent)
12 wins: 44 teams (15.9 percent)
13 wins: 35 teams (12.7 percent)
14 wins: 13 teams (4.7 percent)
15 wins: 3 teams… Minnesota in 1998; Pittsburgh in 2004; Green Bay in 2011 (1.1 percent)
16 wins: 1 team… New England in 2007 (0.4 percent)

Here’s a breakdown of how many teams with 8 or more wins in the regular season since 1990 made the playoffs.

8 wins: 86 teams won 8 games; 9 made the playoffs; 77 did not… 10.5%
9 wins: 81 teams won 9 games; 42 made the playoffs; 39 did not… 51.9%
10 wins: 78 teams won 10 games; 70 made the playoffs; 8 did not… 89.7%
11 wins: 59 teams won 11 games; 58 made the playoffs; 1 did not… 98.3%
12 wins: 44 teams won 12 games; 44 teams made the playoffs… 100%
13 wins: 35 teams won 13 games; 35 teams made the playoffs… 100%
14 wins: 13 teams won 14 games; 13 teams made the playoffs… 100%
15 wins: 3 teams won 15 games; 3 teams made the playoffs… 100%
16 wins: 1 team won 16 games; 1 team made the playoffs… 100%

Here’s a few more interesting stats:

* 96.1% of the teams that won 10 or more games since 1990 made the playoffs.

* New England is the only team since 1990 to win 11 games in the regular season and not make the playoffs.

You want a sure thing? It looks like 12 wins is that sure thing. Teams have a great chance with 10 or 11 wins. Nine wins? Teams have about a 50-50 chance.

“99 Stats Before Kickoff” (Stats you need to know before the start of the 2013 NFL season) is available from e-book publisher Smashwords. Go to www.smashwords.com to download a copy, including a pdf version which can be viewed on your home computer. Cost is $2.99